How many people could lightning network support at the moment?

[irukandji]

How many people could lightning network support at the moment?
Assuming enough bitcoin went into the system, could it support 100M, or 1B or 5B users?

Or would we need to tweak the routing algorithms more for such numbers?

[Carlton Banks]

How many people could lightning network support at the moment?

It depends on the type of usage that dominates. Most of it is really nominal testing of the network atm (e.g. the graffiti wall website), but there is a some genuine commerce happening for VPN subscriptions and mobile topup (lightning is the 2nd most popular payment method at bitrefill.com, according to them).

Assuming enough bitcoin went into the system

Enough for what? Lightning payments are capped at ~ 0.04 BTC, the use-cases for that are limited (i.e. the previously impractical micro-payments use case). This will change in future, but this is what's possible today.

There is currently ~ 650 BTC in public lightning channels. It's not very easy to say how many users that can support until we know how it will be used. It's been said that the ultimate carrying capacity of lightning is many multiples higher than e.g. the VISA network, but that will simply incentivise the use of that extras capacity (new business models will almost certainly develop to take advantage of the novel capacity dynamics)

[BitHodler]

Lightning payments are capped at ~ 0.04 BTC, the use-cases for that are limited. This will change in future, but this is what's possible today.

I read somewhere that you (with a deeper technical understanding) could lift this limit already, but I'm not sure how feasible it is right now, especially with how there is no demand yet for high value transactions.

I do wonder though, do you think there will be a time where you can have 1000BTC channels just like you have 0.168BTC channels without tweaking and coding right now?

If so, that would allow Bitcoin to even compete with Ripple when it comes to cross border transactions. Instant and close to free transactions (or entirely free within a banking network itself), sounds like a killer feature.

[Carlton Banks]

Lightning payments are capped at ~ 0.04 BTC, the use-cases for that are limited. This will change in future, but this is what's possible today.

I read somewhere that you (with a deeper technical understanding) could lift this limit already, but I'm not sure how feasible it is right now, especially with how there is no demand yet for high value transactions.

I do wonder though, do you think there will be a time where you can have 1000BTC channels just like you have 0.168BTC channels without tweaking and coding right now?

There's a security trade-off though. Lightning involves running a hot wallet, the transaction limits are there to mitigate losses. Until the practices and/or tech to run hot wallets in a safer way are realised, observing amount limits is the best one-size way to minimise the impact. Those that are willing to risk larger amounts will be able to, when that feature is standardised (in the 1.1 spec I think)

[DooMAD]

I read somewhere that you (with a deeper technical understanding) could lift this limit already, but I'm not sure how feasible it is right now, especially with how there is no demand yet for high value transactions.

The proposal is fully outlined but I don't think the code is complete yet.  "Wumbo" is the current name for two parties opting into an uncapped channel.  The current limits will remain in place by default.  Both parties will have to agree to remove the caps.