So what do we think of thing continuous gradual rise of Bitcoin recently?

[mrdeposit]

There is not certain opinion, but I do not think it is gonna to decrease below $4400. If the long awaited increase confronts the crash, majority hope will also crash. Lets hope for better.

[thecodebear]

Will it dump back to $3000s or are we gonna see it just keep gradually building steam or a big squeeze and watch it shoot way up, and if it does shoot up will that signal the start of the bull market like Oct 2015 or is it a trap and we've still got months of bottom to watch?

just compare the charts. they look totally different. we're only a short way into forming the bottom this time.

in october 2015, we broke out above resistances that formed 10 months/a year prior. this time, we're nowhere near that. we're still firmly below the $6k resistance we crashed from 4 months ago. yes we've made some baby steps like a weekly higher high, but we also did the same thing in q4 2014 before capitulating to new lows the following january.

people are getting bullish very quickly.....yet another sign the bottom isn't in. 2015 was nothing like that---everyone was so pessimistic.

Your last sentence answers the rest of your comment.

Yeah the 2015 bottom was twice as long as this bottom was. That is precisely because everyone was so pessimistic. A significant part of the bitcoin economy had their money stolen in 2014 and THE major exchange of the day closed down. And that was the first full on 4 year market cycle since the very early days of short market cycles had ended, but there was no way to know that at the time. All people knew was that the crash was far longer than any other bitcoin cycle and it didn't seem like it would ever end...until it did!

Now we all know better. People (well at least people into bitcoin) all now know it will recover after a year long drop, in 2015 people knew bitcoin can recover from much shorter drops but they had never experienced anything like that bear market before. This time bitcoin people knew to buy at the bottom before the next bull run starts.

And that is precisely why this bottom only lasted half the time of the 2015 bottom, because everyone into bitcoin knew this time around that it was only a matter of time which means a lot more were accumulating rather than simply being afraid it will never go back up.

This is partly because an extended crash is no longer a scary thing as explained above, but also because bitcoin is everywhere now. Governments, businesses, wall st firms, tech ceo's, payment companies, investing companies, financial shows, etc all talk about bitcoin quite often these days. The buzz around bitcoin during this bear market and bottom has been exponentially louder than it was during the last bottom because the last bottom was a scary unknown due to its (at that time) record breaking length and stuff like MtGox. This time the crash and bottom was a break and a great time to buy more and everyone whose been in Bitcoin since before 2017 knew it.

The general pattern is gonna be the same yes, large crash, slow bottoming process, break through the bottom and start the bull run like what just happened. But the details aren't going to be the same. Just because 2015 took 10 months bottoming doesn't mean 2019 had to. A lot more of the world cares about Bitcoin to the point where at least talking about it is mainstream for at the very least tech and financial people. That's a world away from where Bitcoin was in the global consciousness in 2015. So yeah, the bear market lasted slightly less time that the 2014 bear market and the 2019 bottom lasted only half the time as the 2015 bottom.

While I also used the 2015 bottom as a guide to assume this bottom would last until late summer, it's not really that surprising it ended a good bit quicker. What happened a couple days ago is exactly what you look for to show the end of the bottom and the start of the bull run. And in recent weeks I was even beginning to think the bottom was about to end as the price was looking very strong over the past 6 weeks, and while I thought it was more likely to break back down at 4200 and take a few more months, I knew breaking through it and starting the bull run was a possibility, and obviously that is what happened.

[figmentofmyass]

just compare the charts. they look totally different. we're only a short way into forming the bottom this time.

in october 2015, we broke out above resistances that formed 10 months/a year prior. this time, we're nowhere near that. we're still firmly below the $6k resistance we crashed from 4 months ago. yes we've made some baby steps like a weekly higher high, but we also did the same thing in q4 2014 before capitulating to new lows the following january.

people are getting bullish very quickly.....yet another sign the bottom isn't in. 2015 was nothing like that---everyone was so pessimistic.

Your last sentence answers the rest of your comment.

Yeah the 2015 bottom was twice as long as this bottom was. That is precisely because everyone was so pessimistic.

not at all. i've traded lots of markets over nearly a decade, including the recovery from 2008. in all markets, strong recoveries and new bull markets are always characterized by disbelief and pessimism.

i'm a contrarian trader because the crowd is usually wrong. when everyone is pessimistic and bearish, it's time for a bull run. it's no coincidence that sentiment was bearish into q4 2015. "climbing a wall of worry" is not very well understood by retail traders but it's extremely indicative of bull markets. we're seeing the opposite sentiment now which doesn't bode well for a new bull market.

A significant part of the bitcoin economy had their money stolen in 2014 and THE major exchange of the day closed down.

in february 2014. what proof do you have that the effects were lasting into 2015? the collapse of gox didn't change anything. it may have accelerated the crash but that's it. if an exchange failure "caused" bitcoin's bear market then bitcoin's fundamentals must have been utter shit. people just use gox as a cop-out because they bagheld through the whole bear market and want to rationalize it to themselves.

not to mention, gox wasn't nearly as significant as people think. it did much less volume than bitfinex+bitstamp combined, not to mention other western exchanges like btc-e. and chinese exchanges were much more influential on the market than the west anyway.

as for effects on supply, the stolen gox coins were liquidated from 2011-13. gox's disappearance fundamentally decreased supply on the spot market because gox customers couldn't withdraw the remaining 200k coins in its reserves. they therefore needed to buy their coins back on the spot market.

[lablab03]

There is not certain opinion, but I do not think it is gonna to decrease below $4400. If the long awaited increase confronts the crash, majority hope will also crash. Lets hope for better.

we definitely can't tell more on this circumstance of bitcoin because its very unexpected that will rise rapidly now despite of the fluctuation .but i have still doubts about this wherein maybe it has no strong support and perhaps another whale's is hidden behind again that can cause manipulation .but yeah let hope better future.

[omonuyak]

Of a truth bitcoin is on a part of recovery and it is important we understand this so that we would not get discouraged when it began to go down again.  The current bullish momentum can not be sustain for long because of volume and investors sentiment.  However it is more of the bullish trend than bearish trend now.

[Febo]

I have been fully expecting the bottom to last until at least late Summer, if not into the Fall.

But here we find ourselves with BTC holding $3700 and up for like 6+ weeks now I think and gradually increasing week after week with it now right at the top to the bottom range at just under $4200 and still continuing to steadily push on up from $4000 to $4100 to right now high $4100s.

Will it dump back to $3000s or are we gonna see it just keep gradually building steam or a big squeeze and watch it shoot way up, and if it does shoot up will that signal the start of the bull market like Oct 2015 or is it a trap and we've still got months of bottom to watch?

It should go under $4000. But not that soon. And that will be just a bear trap. Dont get fooled.

[1Referee]

The market seemed to be quite healthy. But, the current rise seems quite suspicious. All those sudden rise might cause a chaos soon. FOMO might also be playing a huge role on this weird price rise. Lets hope everything goes back to normal .

Bitcoin pumping and dumping hard seems pretty normal to me. Chaos in the market is the only thing that Bitcoin and crypto in general has going for it right now. How else will it signal that it's alive? If Bitcoin isn't doing anything the interest in it decreases and we have seen that more than once already, and this will continue till utility wins it over the speculative nature. At that point people will prefer relative stability.

I miss the good old days where 1000-2000BTC buy and sell walls were a common occurrence. Investors are probably afraid of exchanges due to all the hacks and whatnot, therefore spread out their funds over multiple exchanges, which means that smart money understands that centralized exchanges are shit, while dumb money continues to ignore red flags and for that reason people continue to rekt themselves.

[magneto]

I have been fully expecting the bottom to last until at least late Summer, if not into the Fall.

But here we find ourselves with BTC holding $3700 and up for like 6+ weeks now I think and gradually increasing week after week with it now right at the top to the bottom range at just under $4200 and still continuing to steadily push on up from $4000 to $4100 to right now high $4100s.

Will it dump back to $3000s or are we gonna see it just keep gradually building steam or a big squeeze and watch it shoot way up, and if it does shoot up will that signal the start of the bull market like Oct 2015 or is it a trap and we've still got months of bottom to watch?

I'm actually leaning towards a correction down to the low $4k level.

I don't think that the bottom will change any time soon though, as I've said before. If prices do ever go down to near $3k at this point, which I don't think it will, the institutional demand that has increased within the bear market I think will simply take advantage and will most likely stop it from falling much further.

Sentiment within the market has kind of shifted from completely bearish, fear and uncertainty to bullish and people seeking for quick profits. We're simply not at a stage where we can say we're already in a bull market, which means that corrections like this that lead to sideways movement and consolidation at a lower level will be common.

[StarofBTC]

There is not certain opinion, but I do not think it is gonna to decrease below $4400. If the long awaited increase confronts the crash, majority hope will also crash. Lets hope for better.

we definitely can't tell more on this circumstance of bitcoin because its very unexpected that will rise rapidly now despite of the fluctuation .but i have still doubts about this wherein maybe it has no strong support and perhaps another whale's is hidden behind again that can cause manipulation .but yeah let hope better future.

I really don’t think this movement can be attached to whales because I feel if it was whales, we would have seen a reversed price already but as it it now the price has already stabilized again.

Though to some experts it can still be a good point to for whales to manipulate but lets us just believe that this price has come to stay and what we will see next is the next bull run, the important aspect of this is for us to continue keeping our investment and try not to panic sell no matter what, I bought some BTC when it was $15k by 2017 and for what I believe in, I will see that target and still see beyond that price.

[gabmen]

Even if will dump again i don't think will go so low to 3000$, but i think will not drop and this month will continue grow and we can have a bull run this year if keeps growing and more people will buy.

Yeah it's likely that we're going to settle on a new support line fore the next few weeks and that should be well above 4k. Things have pretty much settled down now and we're swinging just around the 4.8 to 5k levels and that's promising for 2019.