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Author Topic: 2017 Crash DejaVu?  (Read 642 times)
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July 20, 2019, 07:27:01 AM
 #41

The last ATH and the crash that followed had many other, non-chart signs - the fees were high due to a huge network activity, as people were moving their coins in and out of exchanges, Bitcoin reached ATH on Google trends, the media all over the world were talking about Bitcoin, even on national television. There's nothing like that right now, so it's not the top of another bubble yet.

With most of those metrics, it looks like the beginning of a bubble now. Google Trends looks an awful lot like the May-October 2017 period before it went parabolic. Fees have been trending upwards since the beginning of the year too. I guess we got Trump tweeting about Bitcoin, but yeah, certainly not the everyday hype coverage of late 2017.

both Google trends and fees are terrible indicators to use for market price.
for example right now Google trend is most probably higher due to the fact that news suddenly got flooded with articles about bitcoin and Trump tweet.
the fees are also going higher more often these days mainly because of the altcoins that have been spamming bitcoin network to mine their shitcoin (like Veriblock).

and neither one of these have anything to do with price and its rising although price is rising and we are in the beginning of the next bubble that will be shaped in about a year.

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July 20, 2019, 05:21:44 PM
 #42

There wasn't any 2017 crash.There were some price corrections but the bitcoin price was going constantly up during the entire 2017.Do you mean the 2018 bear trend?
We can't analyse the bitcoin price based only on the 2 month candlesticks movements.
Price patterns that happened in the past won't happen again.This is a well known rule.

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July 20, 2019, 10:03:10 PM
 #43

both Google trends and fees are terrible indicators to use for market price.
for example right now Google trend is most probably higher due to the fact that news suddenly got flooded with articles about bitcoin and Trump tweet.
the fees are also going higher more often these days mainly because of the altcoins that have been spamming bitcoin network to mine their shitcoin (like Veriblock).

and neither one of these have anything to do with price and its rising although price is rising and we are in the beginning of the next bubble that will be shaped in about a year.

They aren't indicators for market's price, they are indicators for general market state - they show how much activity from users is happening at the given time. There's no denying that they correlate with big price movements caused by big masses of people.

You are wrong about Trump's tweets - they didn't cause any reaction from Google trends, in fact the latest spike happened in the end of June, which is exactly the time when Bitcoin surged. Google trends is a lagging indicator, but still it can provide us some insight to what's happening with the market.

Spamming can't cause as much transactions as organic use, and most of the spam happens at lower brackets, which has little effect on fees. Fees signal that people actively move coins in, out and between exchanges.

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