Expected value in sports betting

[Bossian]

it's possible to get value and win in the long term, very difficult but possible, cannot be compared with roulette or this kind of game when your chances to win in the long term are a big fat 0.

roulete or any other kind of gambling can be comparable with sports betting because all of them are still kind of gambling. you can say any good things about sports but there are still that time that you can loose .  on roulete you can still win in the long run or on long term depending on your playstyle or on how lucky you are .

most Bitcoin bookmakers don't offer value, you have to bet in fiat on bet365, Betfair, etc.

most of them yes but the number of sports betting sites that accept cryptos are now growing. soon as cryptos grow , these sites can also grow.  those who only accept fiat will soon decide to accept crypto or else their business will crash

You didn't get my point. On sports betting if you are good enough, you can get a 60% profit on a selection that has 80% chance to win, that is what bettors call value. IF YOU ARE SHARP it's possible to find these opportunities.
On the roulette it's freaking impossible, for reasons I shouldn't need to explain.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation?

Yes you absolutely right. I thought that the amount won will be the total amount including bet. Seems like I was mistaken at some point and I have corrected the above post.

In long term, It's impossible to win in dice, roulette or crash game. That's due to the existence of house edge. We have heard about many strategies. But all of them lead to loss in the long term.
The big difference between roulette and sport games is that the result in dice or roulette is determined by mathematics calculations, but in sports betting, the result is determined on the field of play. 

This is quite true. Often we would end up in losing our money if we have kept a higher multiplier or so in dice/roulette based gambling games. Whereas it could be predicted to bet on a sports game played in real time. The players can be analysed upon and the bets can be placed upon that. This is why it could be much more safer than playing a game of dice and losing your hard earned money. On the other hand, the gamblers try to recoup their losses by playing again and again which could make the situation ever more worse than they are.

[ralle14]

All of these fancy terms usually don't matter much in my opinion since luck is the critical factor in this context. I never care about the EV factor in sports betting since research and luck all that matter to me.

Its simple really. If you manage to have an above average ROI over an extended period of time, you will stand to profit in the long term. This is how so many successful punters succeeded in the long run without focusing too much on the math behind it all.

For sports betting, luck doesn't matter when you find matches with odds that are +EV. You don't have to look on each teams stats but like i've said earlier effort is still needed because you need to have so many accounts on several sportsbooks to get the best odds for better profits.

So you are saying that the odds on different bookies can be determined so the profit is guaranteed if the gambler can catch the opportunity. But this is not called positive expected value.
Am I right?

The first example buwaytress mentioned is +EV because he placed a bet on the first outcome with 8/1 odds and 7/1 odds on the other it's basically betting on team a and team b with both odds higher than even. But the second example isn't because the better probability is only on one outcome which is to score it would only be +EV if the odds for Sturridge to not score is at least 2/1 or higher.

[hosseinimr93]

Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation?

Yes you absolutely right. I thought that the amount won will be the total amount including bet. Seems like I was mistaken at some point and I have corrected the above post.

So, the example you made for positive expected value case is no longer valid.
The expected value is always negative in dice game. In dice game the expected value can be positive only if the house edge is negative which is impossible. In sports betting the expected value can be positive.

Assume that there is a game between teams "A" and "B". Team "A" has 70% chance to win the game and team "B" has "30%" chance.
If the house edge is 1%, the odds are
A: 99/70=1.414
B: 99/30=3.3
If we use 70% and 30% in our calculations the expected value is negative.
The expected value is positive only when the gambler analyze the teams and believe that the probabilities that have been used for calculating the odds are wrong.
For example a gambler believe that team "A" has 80% chance and team "B" has 20% chance and bets 0.001 BTC on team "A".
If the gambler wins the bet, he will get 0.001*0.414=0.0001414
So, the expected value is as follows.
EV= [0.000414*0.8]-[0.001*0.2]= 0.000131

[STT]

On the roulette it's freaking impossible, for reasons I shouldn't need to explain.

People have actually turned the chances positive for themselves on roulette and the casino said it wasnt fair but a court said they should be paid.   They used laser tracking on the wheel to detect the most probable numbers, using this improved chance the roulette wheel player placed higher money at certain times to get a positive return over the evening.  I think they got a million+ from it hence the court case, was in London.  I might search for the article on it later.
  I have read though its foreign to me that some can manually detect a roulette wheel which has worn and become more liable to certain numbers, must be alot of talent required for that.

[hosseinimr93]

On the roulette it's freaking impossible, for reasons I shouldn't need to explain.

People have actually turned the chances positive for themselves on roulette and the casino said it wasnt fair but a court said they should be paid.   They used laser tracking on the wheel to detect the most probable numbers, using this improved chance the roulette wheel player placed higher money at certain times to get a positive return over the evening.  I think they got a million+ from it hence the court case, was in London.  I might search for the article on it later.
  I have read though its foreign to me that some can manually detect a roulette wheel which has worn and become more liable to certain numbers, must be alot of talent required for that.

I found an old article on BBC. This news was released on 2004. I guess this is what you are talking about.
Any way, here we are not discussing about a real roulette in London or Vegas. We are discussing about an online game which the outcome is determined by some mathematics calculations.