Four lower highs and weakening support, is BTC ready for a correction?

[NightTrader0]

I hate to be bearish on BTC. I've been invested since I put my student loan into it during 2013, but my current outlook is leaning towards a bearish scenario.

Since reaching $14k we've hit four consecutive lower highs and $10k has now been tested several times. It begs the question, how long will it be until support is broke and BTC has a reset back down to the 8k or 7k region? For me this would be bullish in the long-run, it would spur volatility and excitement back into the market.

Here's an article I've written on my thoughts, I'll copy it below in case you don't want to click the link. Cheers guys.

https://coinrivet.com/bitcoin-tests-10000-level-of-support-following-fourth-lower-high/

Bitcoin’s two-month consolidation pattern is forming a bearish posture following a fourth consecutive lower high.

After reaching a yearly high of $14,000 in June, Bitcoin has slumped by more than 25% to around $10,000.

Since then, it has failed three times to achieve a new high, seeing rejections at $13,200, $12,350, and $10,950.

It is now currently grinding along the $10,000 level of support, which has been respected on numerous occasions over the past month.

A breakdown in price from this level would see downside targets emerge at $9,450 and $8,880, which was a point of resistance prior to the breakout in June.

The 100 EMA on the daily chart is currently at $9,800. This could be a point at which Bitcoin bounces as it did so before on August 15.

In order to trigger a bullish reversal, Bitcoin must rally above the $11,000 level as it would take out the upper side of the symmetrical triangle while also creating a higher high above the previous point of rejection at $10,950.

The daily stochastics are currently poised in a neutral zone between 52 and 59. A slump in price from here would almost certainly send it down below 20.

The last time the daily stochastics fell below 20 was on August 30 when Bitcoin dropped to $9,350. The time before that was on July 15 when price fell 30% from $13,200 to $9,150.

Currently, while there is potential for Bitcoin to bounce in the coming days back to the $10,500 region, the odds seem stacked in favour of the bears, with a test of the 200 EMA on the daily chart at $8,590 becoming increasingly likely.

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[Superalgos]

I see your point and would add the following considerations: volumes have been dropping along with the lower highs, which could also mean that selling volume is easing too, so this may as well become a bear trap...

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[bitgolden]

I get all the points that you have here, and you have really taken your time to break down your analysis to back up your prediction or claim. This is exactly the pattern that most analysis that come on this forum to speculate prices, they were supposed to at least give a break down as to how they arrived at their speculation like you did, but they rather just speculate.

I know that bitcoin is full of so many surprises, and I didn’t doubt that we could be heading back to region of $8000, I think that many people has speculated this, which I am still waiting to make my own analysis to confirm all these that has been said including yours, but even if bitcoin eventually go down there I think that it would only create way for more increase as many buyers would take advantage of it to buy all over again.