Capitulation = Blood in the Streets! ORLY?

[windjc]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.22340

He is the main speculation thread on July 6th, 2013. Read it for good measure.

There is some mythology going around that this forum is currently too bullish for us to be near the bottom. There is just no possible way we could be at the bottom because there is not enough panic, despair and fear.

Well read the thread above. There is probably more fear now than then, at least no more.

AND given the fact that many traders have lived through at least 1 or 2 capitulations already, one would expect there to be less fear and panic as we go along. Just as there is less volatility now.

So, this whole idea about blood in the bitcoin streets is just mythology. Its based on some historical reality (bitcoin at $2 was a bit desperate perhaps, especially without an eco-system or any sign of mainstream adoption). But in 2014, blood in the streets, and crying women and children is certainly not needed for capitulation.

[podyx]

$50 just 7 months ago

ain't that crazy..

its a shame i had to small balls back then but i did bought in at $100

[sgbett]

its a fair point i reckon.

Although i am constantly second guessing myself i still feel like my stall is set out here. This is still the bottom. It might still drag out for a bit longer yet (in fact I don't think it breaks up until the current ATH/500 low wedge/pennant is resolved), you might get a +/- 10% better entry. who knows.

I hold. As ever

[Tzupy]

The July 2013 capitulation was a mild one, and the main reason for that was the fiat withdrawal issue at MtGox,
which at that point was still the dominant exchange. There is no guarantee that this one will be mild too.
Currently the market is more fragmented and it is comparatively less liquid in bitcoins. That's why market moves
take much longer than in 2013, wasting everybody's time. But speculator fiat is slowly moving out,
while the ask side will become beefier. This doesn't exclude a fake breakout, like in late May 2013.