How can we estimate changes in volitions and value of the prices in exchange

[alfonso_jon]

The first step in understanding the variance between crypto currency and fiat currency is how much value it has been given by the ones who use it. Governments have set a certain value to their currency so that a buying and selling relation is established, leading to that fiat being used and always running. Fiat currencies are backed by the governments and stated as the legal method of payment. Meanwhile, crypto currency has no authority that sets its value to a particular amount or in a particular way. It can fluctuate and change according to the people who use it. It is decentralized and many governments have banned its use in their countries. Crypto currencies’s worth does not reduce as it has a fixed supply. Cryptocurrencies have different values according to their services and these values are somehow dependent upon the medium of crypto exchange.
Crypto currency markets are still very new for many people and some even do not know of its existence. Its newness makes it volatile to fluctuate in prices. The difference in price value of exchanges is very low. The difference of buying and selling is lower with foreign currency trades but it is high with cryptocurrency trade. Cryptocurrency has a market that is thin and in continuous flux.
Every day new users are coming on board with the aim of becoming a success though crypto currency. Crypto currency does work like a commodity, the value increases if the demand is high and the supply is limited and vice versa. Good reviews will increase the price while positive reviews will decrease the price. This leads us to conclude that the outside world and feedback from people does effect crypto currency’s value.
Other factors that have a huge effect on the price include the level of token utility, which refers to how useful the token is; and the underlying blockchain platform in solving a real-world problem. Mining influences the price as well. If mining is taking place under difficult circumstances then the supply will be low and the demand high, causing the price to increase.

[jostorres]

Fortunately not "many countries banned its usage", that is a bit wrong, sure there are some but biggest countries allow you to use bitcoin.
Even china who banned ICO's and trying to ban mining, allows you to have and use bitcoins, they are not against it.

USA, UK, China, Germany all support bitcoin usage, I mean they don't "support" it but they at least allow it. It comes with regulations, you can't just put 1 billion dollars into bitcoin make some money and withdraw 1.2 billion dollars from it and hope that nobody realized it or there won't be any consequences, these laws that allow bitcoin trading also comes with laws that make sure nobody neither launders money nor not pay taxes. In the end fiat is of course regulated harder but bitcoin considered to be unregulated is wrong.

[Myfe]

It's fun when you see a thread topic that looks like someone's asking a question and then you read the original post and realize they're actually trying to explain the answer to that question, but there are several misconceptions woven into that explanation.

Good thing our community is big.

It is decentralized and many governments have banned its use in their countries.

Here's a list of legalization of Bitcoin by Country. Only about ten or so countries have outlawed, "banned" Bitcoin and none of them are G8 or developed countries.

Cryptocurrency has a market that is thin and in continuous flux. Every day new users are coming on board with the aim of becoming a success though crypto currency.

A thin market is one that has low volume of trades. New people aren't entering the market. The price isn't volatile and the spread is small. This is certainly not the case for Bitcoin.

[Upgrade00]

Governments have set a certain value to their currency so that a buying and selling relation is established, leading to that fiat being used and always running.

AFAIK, governments do not set the value of fiat currencies, but they generate the legal tenders which has to be accepted anywhere it is presented within the country. The economy of the nation determine the value it is traded for in relation with other currencies and this reflects on it's actual value.

[Yamifoud]

I don't know if you are disappointed or you are just trying to say something that crypto isn't a decentralized market anymore but more likely it was controlled by the government and its prices. But talking about being controlled by the government, set price by the government, it absolutely you are wrong because they are not doing this.
I believe that you are pointing out market manipulation but we can blame the government instead of pointing it out to the whales. These people have the power and capabilities, not the government for we are still out from their fence.   

[Wexnident]

The newness indeed brings about the volatility of BTC, but not only that, theres also the fact that BTC supply is still continuously increasing. Yes, it has a limit, but since it still hasn't been reached, naturally, price would continue to fluctuate.

AFAIK, governments do not set the value of fiat currencies, but they generate the legal tenders which has to be accepted anywhere it is presented within the country. The economy of the nation determine the value it is traded for in relation with other currencies and this reflects on it's actual value.

Value of currency in simple terms is dependent on its supply and demand. More specifically, how much dollar can buy in other currencies, values of Treasury notes ( since they can be exchanged to USD), and amount of USD foreign governments have. The more they have, the rarer the currency is.

[Hallmader]

We can only roughly estimate the growing interest in Bitcoin. We cannot estimate how much particular price will the growth of Bitcoin be in the coming weeks or months or years. What we can estimate in terms of volition is that people are leaning on it rather than on the fiat system which is not really under the dictation and the will of the people. The fiat system is ruled by a very few elites unlike Bitcoin which is not ruled by any single person or group of exclusive individuals.

[Asmonist]

If we refer it to year to year or month to month comparison, somehow we can have percentage of the possible ups and downs of prices. But still there are other factors to consider and sometimes the unpredictable things like war, calamities and other inevitable happenings that we don't expect can somehow affect it. Maybe we can set a particular low,medium and high rates of predictions at leastore or less the predictions are within that ranges.

[panganib999]

Those measures are ones that can be seen through values/data. It doesn't necessarily take into account the current state of the crypto community, and its current attitude towards the adoption of crypto. Also, altcoins may be dependent on the companies that are backing them, but BTC is dependent on what the community wants it to be. If the vast majority of the populace agrees for it to be integrated towards the currency department of the globe, it could probably push through, since stores/companies would have to adjust to the wants and needs of the customers, and we all know that customer is number 1 in the eyes of these types of companies.

[beerlover]

Lol, that is true. There is likely so many data involved with these that there is absolutely no way we could ever know it beforehand. Plus, let's not forget that there are always whales lurking around so they could end up doing something unexpected and we would be just looking at the prices like "what the hell happened". Long story short never try to shortcut anything in bitcoin world, sure you could try to find a way to predict volatility and values but in the end there is no value of bitcoin other than what people give it to be, there is no price of it like a product on a shelf.

I personally always said that whatever price bitcoin you think should be is the price of bitcoin for you, as long as you don't have to spend it on something, all you do is buy it cheaper and wait until it reaches your price.