Bitcoin Thesis

[dnprock]

Everyone has different views on Bitcoin. I want to run a poll to see where people are. It's hard to control your thoughts when there's a lot of noise in the market. This is a good exercise for me. I'm currently at 3 (An SoV).

[mk4]

I'm a big believer of this chart by Murad Mahmudov below, as it simply makes sense to me.

I believe we've been through the fun experiment and digital collectible phase as Bitcoin is a lot more sort of "solid" protocol now. In my point of view, we're at the speculative asset phase now as while we can use our bitcoin to spend it in a few places, global adoption is obviously not there yet so most of us here are betting on reaching that in the future. As for the SoV and MoE, I think we've partly reached that stage. Probably at 5 or 10% or so, but totally not there yet.

Just my 2 satoshis.

For anyone who wants a deeper dive into this, Anthony Pompliano has a great great podcast with Murad that I've listened to a multiple times already. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMK_A0mF8PQ

tweet source: https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/1022169639386836992

[dnprock]

I saw this chart. But I think the chart is misleading. It implies that Bitcoin will eventually become The Ideal Money (Full Global Money). That's a maximalist view of Bitcoin. In reality, Bitcoin can be "downgraded." My Bitcoin thesis has been a (highly volatile) Store of Value. But I can also see it as a Speculative Asset. Bitcoin has shown that volatility is not going down even as its price is going up.

In 2030, if Bitcoin fails to reach more than 10k, I would say it is a Digital Collectible. There's a range of possibilities.

[mk4]

I saw this chart. But I think the chart is misleading. It implies that Bitcoin will eventually become The Ideal Money (Full Global Money). That's a maximalist view of Bitcoin. In reality, Bitcoin can be "downgraded." My Bitcoin thesis has been a (highly volatile) Store of Value. But I can also see it as a Speculative Asset. Bitcoin has shown that volatility is not going down even as its price is going up.

In 2030, if Bitcoin fails to reach more than 10k, I would say it is a Digital Collectible. There's a range of possibilities.

Of course it's currently a highly volatile store of value. The point of that chart is the future possibilities of bitcoin, not necessarily that those points are guaranteed to happen. As for the "downgrade" part, sure. People's perception can surely chance in a blip of a second. Doesn't mean that it can't go in a steady upward chart(with dips here and there of course) as time goes though.

In 2030, if Bitcoin fails to reach more than 10k, I would say it is a Digital Collectible. There's a range of possibilities.

I partly disagree. I don't think the majority holds bitcoin just as a collectible as it costs a good amount of money. It's 80-80% a speculative asset and probably a collectible for the ultra rich.

[dnprock]

I partly disagree. I don't think the majority holds bitcoin just as a collectible as it costs a good amount of money. It's 80-80% a speculative asset and probably a collectible for the ultra rich.

I think a speculative asset still needs some valuation model. If Bitcoin remains under 10k in 2030, all current valuation models are wrong. Traders would lose interest in trading bitcoins. Exchanges would be out of business by then. It would be hard to speculate on Bitcoin.

[Darker45]

I guess Bitcoin is more than just a single label right now and even in the future. I don't think we can strictly place Bitcoin under a single label at a particular time and under another in another time. I think it is somehow wrong to say that Bitcoin is an SoV right now, and then it turns into a medium of exchange some other time in the future, and then it slowly morph into a speculative asset later on, and then it will become a global money, and so on and so forth.

[pooya87]

bitcoin is multiple things and sometimes some aspects exist purely because of other aspects. for instance bitcoin is both a medium of exchange and a store of value but it is a store of value only because it is a medium of exchange. same thing is true about bitcoin being an speculative asset. you can't remove bitcoin being a medium of exchange and at the same time expect it to have any value let alone be a store of value of something people invest in (speculation).

[fulled]

Bitcoin is ideal money for me, I'm aware of how bad fiat money is, people just lose their money value in long term if they don't find good investment model to fight inflation, with bitcoin, people will not worried about inflation if they just save their bitcoin without investing at all. But it not will happen in near future, bitcoin should transform itself from speculative investment to global money first before, so the value of bitcoin will stable and it will be a perfect global money

[davis196]

OP,I believe that Bitcoin isn't just one thing(from the list that you described).This explanation of what Bitcoin actually is seems very oversimplified to me.Bitcoin is a combination of the things that you mentioned in your list.I can say that,at least in the eyes of FUDsters and altcoin supporters,Bitcoin can be considered junk as well. I don't think that BTC is junk,it's currently evolving and nobody knows what Bitcoin will become after 5-10 years.

[joniboini]

I think a speculative asset still needs some valuation model. If Bitcoin remains under 10k in 2030, all current valuation models are wrong. Traders would lose interest in trading bitcoins. Exchanges would be out of business by then. It would be hard to speculate on Bitcoin.

I believe there is a race to find the model for a crypto asset right now, bitcoin included[1]. If all current models are wrong doesn't mean people will leave and ditch the asset no? As long as they can still profit from trading. There's no need to surpass $10k, you can make a profit as long as there are spread on the market.

[1] https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/digital-asset-valuation/

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin works perfectly fine as a SoV and MoE. People who tell you otherwise are just trying to shill their altcoins.

Not perfectly. As a SOV, it's perfect to store wealth for self-sovereignty, but as a MOE, it's useful, but not at global scale. I know Lightning, but is everyone using it?

OP, add "a decentralized protocol experiment".

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

A bitcoiner can consider bitcoin in various ways as he likes and that completely depends on the individual's perspective of viewing them as either a collectible or a medium of exchange or a speculative asset. The idea of satoshi was to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange for the transactions which are happening over in the internet without a third party intervention. This was the part of whitepaper which was written by satoshi and so does it would become when the coin and its market matures over the years. Bitcoin on the whole would become something more or less similar to this initial idea coined by satoshi.

Bitcoin - The Ideal Money :

Right now in today's world while we are buying goods from other part of the world, we depend on the banks for the conversion of money to their local currency. Bitcoin prevents this trust problem and we can send money without the intervention of third party(banks or governments). This is how the future years would most probably roll by. I do agree that we were using Gold as a Medium of Exchange centuries ago but were made a Store of Value as centuries passed but we need to consider that they were a physical medium and cannot be transacted globally without the intervention of governments.

I buy goods from other countries and I can't depend on my fiat currency conversions all the time and all I can say is that they are too much time consuming and has expensive transfer rates. Hence I would deal with Bitcoin accepting parties and transact for the exchange of goods. If there wasn't a decentralized digital currency like Bitcoin, it could have been a problem for people like me (depending on fiat currencies, conversions and paying higher transfer rates).

Bitcoin - SoV, Speculative Asset and Digital Collectible :

All 3 of these terms deliver the same meaning that bitcoin would become a store of value in future. Bitcoin is certainly new and it need more years to mature and become a medium of exchange globally. Let us have an alternate theory. What if we could never really say that gold is limited as we might be finding a new major gold deposit in future? If that happens to be the case, why would anyone be using Gold as a SoV? I do agree to the fact that bitcoin is limited, but its really possible for bitcoin to stabilize in prices at a later point of time in future, not in near future of course!

All the new markets would be subjected to severe speculations from newbie investors and so does the same is going on with bitcoin. The prices are being driven due to unnecessary speculations but the final fact would be that bitcoin will always be used as a global money and a medium of exchange for internet users.