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Author Topic: Chinese credit/property bubble unwind and bitcoin  (Read 856 times)
spiderbrain (OP)
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March 21, 2014, 01:10:08 PM
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For a while I've thought that major global financial instability would be good for bitcoin, because it doesn't have the counterparty risk that is such a big issue during major liquidity crisis events. However, the current Chinese credit unwind/panic might just require lots of people to liquidate liquid investments to cover in the interest on the illiquid ghost town property development investments, which would mean a lot of cryptocoin liquidation, and concequenty a price drop. What does everyone think?

FeedbackLoop
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March 21, 2014, 01:21:17 PM
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For a while I've thought that major global financial instability would be good for bitcoin, because it doesn't have the counterparty risk that is such a big issue during major liquidity crisis events. However, the current Chinese credit unwind/panic might just require lots of people to liquidate liquid investments to cover in the interest on the illiquid ghost town property development investments, which would mean a lot of cryptocoin liquidation, and concequenty a price drop. What does everyone think?

...or massive ammounts of Yuan thrown via helicopter (less likely than your proposition but the World does not cease to out-do my cynicism)

...or lots of chinese just claiming bankruptcy on their thrice re-hypothecated factory/luxury condo while keeping their Bitcoin wallets and stashes of gold.

I will speculate that there's not that many chinese with substantial bitcoin amounts though. I would guess that volume in their exchanges is from the super low or inexistant fees. I speculate chinese prefer old fashioned gold and monkey stamps for storage of value and Bitcoin is for gambling.
 
Notice that this is necessarily a stereotype or some sort of average if you prefer over the huge numbers of chinese people. Wasn't China one of the first places where a factory was accepting Bitcoin for payment? (and it wasn't a mining chips factory)

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