The profitability and effort put into different ways of earning bitcoin

[NotATether]

In terms of gambling, it is actually 50/50 situation of probability, it is either you will win or lose except if you are really good at it so you can play even the bets are high without having any fear. Maybe signature campaign is not really a passive one if you do really want what you are doing with it, then continue even if the market experienced a downfall.

This isn't correct. Many casino games have a house edge percent which means that the house actually has 50 + house edge percent change of winning, while you only have 50 - house edge percent chance. I have seen this problem in the bitcoin whitepaper referred to as Gambler's Ruin, although it's used there in the context of blocks, not real gambling that we're talking about here.

If your wager is always the same amount then this is the probability you will catch up to your target profit, assuming that you can theoretically reach the target with q_z winning wagers:



Where q is your probability of winning and p is the house's probability of wining and z is the number of bets you make. As you can see, for any positive house edge (and all casino games have positive edges), you are less likely to reach your target because q/p is less than 1, and the power of ever increasing z shifts your probability towards 0.  And higher house edge games like Slots will get you rekt faster since in this model, the jackpots don't matter,

So unless you make an early large winning bet (and if you do this you can only realistically expect to double or quadruple your balance) it is not possible to reach a higher target.

[hatshepsut93]

In terms of gambling, it is actually 50/50 situation of probability, it is either you will win or lose except if you are really good at it so you can play even the bets are high without having any fear. Maybe signature campaign is not really a passive one if you do really want what you are doing with it, then continue even if the market experienced a downfall.

It's a pretty common fallacy in probability analysis to think that all outcomes are equally possible hence the probability is 1/n where n is the number of probabilities. The truth about gambling that many people are unfamiliar with is that in gambling you simply have less chances to win than the casino - and this isn't some conspiracy, it's a public knowledge.

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You seem to be quite knowledgeable about gambling and its math, so why did you put gambling as an earning method in the first place? You know that you can't profit from it, that it's a money spending method, right?

[NotATether]

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You seem to be quite knowledgeable about gambling and its math, so why did you put gambling as an earning method in the first place? You know that you can't profit from it, that it's a money spending method, right?

It's because I didn't make the picture you saw in the topic, 99bitcoins did and I found most of the diagram accurate except for the gambling, HYIP and lending circles in the picture. The author of the article probably didn't know what I quoted above.

I found a chart on the internet made by 99bitcoins

I think that "low effort high profitability" methods do not actually return a profit but the others are relatively correct. And what kind of person would think that lending is highly profitable?  

EDIT: Added this to say, maybe the article author desperately wanted to shove all the bitcoin methods in four quadrants.