Due to the #Bitcoin hash rate increasing so rapidly, we should expect the #halving to occur already at the end of April, instead of mid May.
Could this analysis in this tweet be true or is it FUD.
The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks (~ 2 weeks) so we maintain a 10 minute difference between each block, but if the hash rate continues to increase exponentially.Could it happen about three weeks before the appointment or even at the end of April?
The current time is just a guess, so there isn't an appointment. It is highly unlikely to be the end of April, but we could see it a few days sooner than estimated now. Some estimates are saying May 12 2020 (e.g.
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com,
https://www.thehalvening.com). Some are saying May 7 (e.g.
https://www.bitcoinclock.com). A couple of months ago the estimates were May 15th. 4 years ago, they were June or July.
However, all that being said, if, for example, the hash rate increased by 100% each of the next 6 halving periods, then each one would only take a week, so you'd shorten 14 days by half if the sudden increase started right at the next 2016 block period. Then you certainly could have the halving sooner. The odds of a 100% increase in hash rate like that are infinitesimal though.
In short, at the current rate of increase, having it in April is quite unlikely. However, it doesn't really matter one way or the other when it occurs so I don't see why the tweet would be FUD, merely something that is probably wrong and since I didn't see any rationale as to why they think that it seems to be just wild speculation. Don't know who that person is, and seems like just some random person throwing something out there.
And I am not really sure if this even belongs in the Dev and Tech section, perhaps it belongs in the Discussion section.
