Casino Stocks - Las Vegas, A Petri Dish for the COVID-19 (Social Distancing?)

[MaximalIdealism]

Las Vegas, Macau, Atlantic City...

A literal playground for adults, all in close proximity who touch the same cards, playing chips, slot machine buttons. Inebriation often involved, and feeling sick? It's okay, there's always the excuse of having 'too much fun, and hittin the Colombian slopes last night', leading to sniffling the next day...

Not here to call it out. But here to point out first off, how amazing the velocity (turnover) of travelers in Vegas is. Think about that in terms of how many overlap with each other during 3-day stays. I wish there was a study of all point-of-contacts in common across the globe, I bet there's a large number of COVID-19 positives that didn't reside in Las Vegas, but had come in contact, and brought it back home with them.

So for these amazing establishments within the consolidated gaming industry, and it's few industry titans of ownership who are bleeding money at every minute their resorts are closed, not hosting events, not allowing hotel guests, and most of all.... not allowing people to give them money gambling.

My prediction? QE Infinity can't last forever, and the casino industry won't be bailed out. Las Vegas will not return to normal.

But old habits and addictions die hard. Gambling will always be around.

What's first... A casino bail out? Or online gaming legislation in which the Sands, MGMs, and Caesars of the world some how still come out on top?

Why else wouldn't these stocks be delisted or trading at zero right now?  Their land value is worth nothing in Las Vegas if you think Social Distancing (flying, being at casinos, going through McCarran Airport) is going to play a much longer role in consumer behaviour. A social change that lasts far beyond the 'shelter-in-place' and 'lockdowns' continue.

[jackg]

Well we don't exactly need casinos, a lot of the high up staff will find jobs elsewhere, as will the low ranking staff... You don't need a famous area to run a successful casino... They must be sorted money wise anyway, a lot of casino owners are either chained and can claim money from the government for ferlough and other schemes and most European countries offer mortgage holidays - casinos probably aren't rented in Vegas they might not even be on mortgage but they're definitely not going to be the worst hit... If casinos plummit I can't imagine people will say it was awful they're not there anymore (especially if they were addicted - a few months away might be all they need especially if they don't like online gambling because it lacks the atmosphere)...

[hatshepsut93]

Why would casinos be ruined by quarantine? I'm sure they can afford to be closed for a month or two, it's not like their slot machines are going to rust in such short time, lol. And after the quarantine will end, things will return to normal and people will start gambling at brick and mortar casinos again. And if for some reason they will be doing it less, those casinos will focus on the Internet. Casinos can't just disappear as long as there are people willing to gamble, their business really doesn't care about any other factors.

[davis196]

Why would casinos be ruined by quarantine? I'm sure they can afford to be closed for a month or two, it's not like their slot machines are going to rust in such short time, lol. And after the quarantine will end, things will return to normal and people will start gambling at brick and mortar casinos again. And if for some reason they will be doing it less, those casinos will focus on the Internet. Casinos can't just disappear as long as there are people willing to gamble, their business really doesn't care about any other factors.

The problem comes,when they are closed for MORE than a month or two.The casinos will have to fire their personnel,cut some costs,etc.I think that casino owners have to reserves to survive for atleast 2 months,but the quarantine might continue for 3+ months.
Anyway,online gambling is the future.All the older gambling addicts,who don't know how to play online,will have to learn and register online accounts.

[exstasie]

My prediction? QE Infinity can't last forever, and the casino industry won't be bailed out. Las Vegas will not return to normal.

But old habits and addictions die hard. Gambling will always be around.

What's first... A casino bail out? Or online gaming legislation in which the Sands, MGMs, and Caesars of the world some how still come out on top?

Why else wouldn't these stocks be delisted or trading at zero right now?  Their land value is worth nothing in Las Vegas if you think Social Distancing (flying, being at casinos, going through McCarran Airport) is going to play a much longer role in consumer behaviour. A social change that lasts far beyond the 'shelter-in-place' and 'lockdowns' continue.

They may be bailed out yet. Given the unemployment crisis, the US casino lobby has ~750,000 workers to leverage against Congress. The casino industry is also vital to Indian tribes, who have a significant lobby too.

Remember TARP? The government may have technically lost on inflation, but they basically made their money back. I won't be surprised to see similar investments made into the leisure and travel industries.

Social distancing will not last forever. It's a matter of months. There is no way online gaming will replace casinos either. It's a way of life.

[fiulpro]

The only good thing about a virus is

It cannot by itself go inside your body , you need to allow it

Social distancing is something that people are taking in the wrong way, they are still going around parks and sitting on public benches , at the same time people do not know how to appropriately wear a mask and even if they do so , they will never be protected 100% .

The whole city is closed and I do think only someone who does not care about his life and of his family will go and get into casinos and other things , if the government finds , something like this is not working then they will for sure go towards building the heard immunity and the weaker population will be compromised.

I do think most of the business have moved online and the offline ones are only being visited by people who don't care about rules and considering you are more worried about the economic situation regarding the casinos I do think you are not at all concerned about the situation as a whole.

[hatshepsut93]

The problem comes,when they are closed for MORE than a month or two.The casinos will have to fire their personnel,cut some costs,etc.I think that casino owners have to reserves to survive for atleast 2 months,but the quarantine might continue for 3+ months.
Anyway,online gambling is the future.All the older gambling addicts,who don't know how to play online,will have to learn and register online accounts.

Yeah, they will fire some workers and cut costs, what's bad in that from the point of view of business? Everyone does that, it's how you keep yourself afloat, there's nothing inherently harmful in it. I doubt casinos have to spend too much money while they are closed, it's very different from some industries that don't tolerate any disruptions.

And it's wrong to say that real-world gambling is for old people, some people just like the atmosphere of physical gambling more appealing than looking at numbers on a website. I'm sure Las Vegas will still be around even in 50 years.

[exstasie]

Yeah, they will fire some workers and cut costs, what's bad in that from the point of view of business? Everyone does that, it's how you keep yourself afloat, there's nothing inherently harmful in it. I doubt casinos have to spend too much money while they are closed, it's very different from some industries that don't tolerate any disruptions.

The casino industry is apparently sitting on boatloads of cash. MGM has $4 billion in cash. They even qualified for bailout money, but they are choosing to lay off workers instead.

That's their prerogative. Same with other giant corporations employing huge portions of the workforce. But remember, their boatloads of cash reserves were built on the backs of that workforce. Throw them to the wayside now, and don't be surprised when public sentiment turns in favor of social entitlements (expanded unemployment, universal healthcare, UBI, and so on) and against profiteering corporate behemoths who immediately fire their workers instead of extending them a lifeline.

There used to be an understanding that corporations took care of their employees. It was a social contract. It seems obvious to me that over the past generation or two, that has changed immensely. Those same employees are now mostly viewed as disposable, worthless, at-will workers who should be thrilled with static wages while jet-set executives pocket all the profits.

Don't be surprised when this turns political and a real pro-worker, anti-corporate movement begins to take hold.

[hatshepsut93]

The casino industry is apparently sitting on boatloads of cash. MGM has $4 billion in cash. They even qualified for bailout money, but they are choosing to lay off workers instead.

That's their prerogative. Same with other giant corporations employing huge portions of the workforce. But remember, their boatloads of cash reserves were built on the backs of that workforce. Throw them to the wayside now, and don't be surprised when public sentiment turns in favor of social entitlements (expanded unemployment, universal healthcare, UBI, and so on) and against profiteering corporate behemoths who immediately fire their workers instead of extending them a lifeline.

There used to be an understanding that corporations took care of their employees. It was a social contract. It seems obvious to me that over the past generation or two, that has changed immensely. Those same employees are now mostly viewed as disposable, worthless, at-will workers who should be thrilled with static wages while jet-set executives pocket all the profits.

Don't be surprised when this turns political and a real pro-worker, anti-corporate movement begins to take hold.

The difference is, casino industry just doesn't have that much workers, so the potential public outrage won't be directed at it - everyone will be focused on giants like Amazon like they usually do. So, unless there are some very big fundamental political changes, the casino industry won't be pressured to make any changes.

[exstasie]

The casino industry is apparently sitting on boatloads of cash. MGM has $4 billion in cash. They even qualified for bailout money, but they are choosing to lay off workers instead.

That's their prerogative. Same with other giant corporations employing huge portions of the workforce. But remember, their boatloads of cash reserves were built on the backs of that workforce. Throw them to the wayside now, and don't be surprised when public sentiment turns in favor of social entitlements (expanded unemployment, universal healthcare, UBI, and so on) and against profiteering corporate behemoths who immediately fire their workers instead of extending them a lifeline.

There used to be an understanding that corporations took care of their employees. It was a social contract. It seems obvious to me that over the past generation or two, that has changed immensely. Those same employees are now mostly viewed as disposable, worthless, at-will workers who should be thrilled with static wages while jet-set executives pocket all the profits.

Don't be surprised when this turns political and a real pro-worker, anti-corporate movement begins to take hold.

The difference is, casino industry just doesn't have that much workers, so the potential public outrage won't be directed at it - everyone will be focused on giants like Amazon like they usually do. So, unless there are some very big fundamental political changes, the casino industry won't be pressured to make any changes.

The US casino industry employs ~ as many people in the US as Amazon. I suspect they employ much more full-time workers with benefits than Amazon.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/op-ed-bailouts-should-come-with-strings-attached-so-taxpayers-can-profit-from-recovery.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/234488/number-of-amazon-employees/

That's not the point anyway. It's not the casino industry that will be forced to make changes. It's the US government, regarding social entitlements like expanded unemployment, universal healthcare, UBI, and so on. Industries will suffer by paying higher corporate taxes. It won't be up to them.

Tens of millions are losing health insurance during a pandemic because their employers laid them off, and tens of millions more will lose it before this is over. Health insurers are also saying they plan to massively jack up insurance premiums to ensure their profits during this crisis.

I think the combination of corporate greed and a national health care crisis may end up bringing huge progressive changes to American society. These are changes Amazon, the casino industry, health insurers, and honestly most consolidated industries will totally hate because they will be footing the bill for it. Or otherwise they won't legally be doing business in America anymore.

[Ucy]

Why would casinos be ruined by quarantine? I'm sure they can afford to be closed for a month or two, it's not like their slot machines are going to rust in such short time, lol. And after the quarantine will end, things will return to normal and people will start gambling at brick and mortar casinos again. And if for some reason they will be doing it less, those casinos will focus on the Internet. Casinos can't just disappear as long as there are people willing to gamble, their business really doesn't care about any other factors.

The problem comes,when they are closed for MORE than a month or two.The casinos will have to fire their personnel,cut some costs,etc.I think that casino owners have to reserves to survive for atleast 2 months,but the quarantine might continue for 3+ months.
Anyway,online gambling is the future.All the older gambling addicts,who don't know how to play online,will have to learn and register online accounts.

Some can actually exist without internet.

Well, I doubt the small betting businesses will be affected that much. Small lottery stores and open space betting businesses for example will likely not be affected that much. Besides, they usually don't attract crowds and they have few operators. I think one of the problems with the large (and probably medium sized) businesses is the crowd they attract especially in enclosed areas.
The small ones can easily continue operating without the need for bailout or government assistance.

[avikz]

My prediction? QE Infinity can't last forever, and the casino industry won't be bailed out. Las Vegas will not return to normal.

Travel and tourism industry is the worst hit due to the current pandemic. Since people are not allowed to travel and the transport of all sorts are closed, Las Vegas and other places known for tourism and gambling, are facing the heat! But travel and tourism industry is not an exception right at this moment, all industries are literally bleeding and there's no silver lining in the sky!

People will come back to gamble only if they have employment that pays well. Since that is not the case at this moment, gambling industry is also facing the heat! However, I am not that pessimistic about it. The scenario will come back to normal most certainly - but it will take some time. Post the pandemic, the consumer market should first come back to normal. Once the companies see demand in the market, they will be producing goods and employing people. That is when the money will start circulating again within the economy and the economy will slowly come back to track.

It will take time for sure. Rome was not build in one day and it will not fall due to an epidemic!