Collective Intelligence Effects on Bitcoin Price Value Predictions

[kupferkoenig]

An experiment with the Bitcoin experiment.

With this poll, I would like to do a test in a small environment before going public.
Of course, due to choosing the Bitcoin forum, this test is limited to people familiar and interested to the Bitcoin philosophy.
The idea of this poll ist to find out how collective intelligence could have an effect or seen as a measure for Bitcoins price value.
I do not expect any exact results as the poll is based on ranges and does not realisticly reflect the collective intelligence measuring method.
Also is it very important that many people need to vote to get reasonable result. 
In a later project, which is in preparation, a more accurate measure will come in usage.
A boring Covid-19 lockdown period was the inspiration to try this. Please look at this also from a kind of entertainment point of view.
The poll will be open for 30 days. Results will only be shown after after a vote was placed. This also ensures that nobody can be influenced by the votes or opinion of others.

Stay safe. Stay healthy. Have fun. Have hope.


add: I dont know if similar ideas have been around before. If yes, would be nice to know more about it.

[jossiel]

add: I dont know if similar ideas have been around before. If yes, would be nice to know more about it.

There were many of this already that's been used as a topic on Speculation[1]. Most likely, this is just another thread of it so no need for further discussions about it and lock the thread.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

Browse on the topics there and you'll see different opinions and price predictions for bitcoin.

[jackg]

add: I dont know if similar ideas have been around before. If yes, would be nice to know more about it.

There were many of this already that's been used as a topic on Speculation[1]. Most likely, this is just another thread of it so no need for further discussions about it and lock the thread.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

Browse on the topics there and you'll see different opinions and price predictions for bitcoin.

There aren't any polls on the latest page and sentiment can change. Opinions are less significant when written than compared with a poll...

There might have been an end of 2020 one already but that wasn't before the price was this high.

It seems we should close the year optimistic imo too, we might see a small slump in summer and autumn and then a stabalise at 10-20k in the winter is what I'm thinking if the bull run waits until next year.

[jossiel]

add: I dont know if similar ideas have been around before. If yes, would be nice to know more about it.

There were many of this already that's been used as a topic on Speculation[1]. Most likely, this is just another thread of it so no need for further discussions about it and lock the thread.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

Browse on the topics there and you'll see different opinions and price predictions for bitcoin.

There aren't any polls on the latest page and sentiment can change. Opinions are less significant when written than compared with a poll...

There might have been an end of 2020 one already but that wasn't before the price was this high.

It seems we should close the year optimistic imo too, we might see a small slump in summer and autumn and then a stabalise at 10-20k in the winter is what I'm thinking if the bull run waits until next year.

I was generalizing the topic so I didn't mentioned about the poll.

That price range is sustainable and what I think for this year, it's much better than what we have during 2018. Although it's far to compare that year with what we have now.

Once we reached those ranges, high predictions will be made again with full of hopes and will become more likely as it breaks the past ATH.

[kupferkoenig]

Thank you for the opinions.
To be honest: the poll like this is a bit misleading. But there is no other tool in the forum that fits my need. Pre-defined value ranges like this is definitely not the best way for data collection related to collective intelligence measure.
Also I would underline that the idea is not speculative natur. At least not in the obvious way people might think. I look at this more from scientific perspective.
Collective intelligence in simple way is for example the problem:
1. you dont know the height of the church tower (is 54m)
2. you make a suggestion, 65m
3. you ask many poeple around you about their opinions of the height and collect them.
4. you take the average value out of all opinions and you might get a near value ( 53m) of the real hight of the tower
Doing a measure on Bitcoin price f.e. will be kind of different because nobody knows the future value. It could be also a different measuring instead of prices for Bitcoin. But this comes most people to mind first, because it is of high interest.

Collecting the data for a simple CIM is a bit like doing a poll with votes. An individual will place her/his vote and the opinion will be added to the dataset. But compared to a ordinary poll people will add a value that is not pre-defined or within a range. In this case, this would be different as there is no real existing value as a target close to become identified. The only target that can be defined in this case is a specific date or at least a calendar week.
The interesting point is: will this votes (the average) reflect close to the value that will be fact at target time? Or could the votes also influence the value within progress time until target time? This depends of course on many factors: ammount of votes, realistic votes,  state of mind, world economic, etc.
So it is a fluent measuring with an ending point. F.e., a Bitcoin price expectation could be measured on medium term and also long term as targets.
But similar measuring and the results could also be conducted for other crypto assets or related to questions like adoption, popularity, trust, future viability, etc.

Identifying a Bitcoin price expectation is only one step as it is of high interest and popular. It also should be seen a bit from entertainment perspective. But it gives also ordinary people the chance to give a voice. Not only the famous Cryptobusiness VIP´s with questionable price expectations, like McAffee, etc. Maybe the mass, the swarm can detect, analyse or impact.
This is the real core behind this thought. 

[Yaunfitda]

I voted for: "between 10000 and 20000 USD", at least that's what I'm expecting where the price should be at least at the end of the year. We have been trying to break that 5 digits and sustained, I think that should be the first goal here, to break the higher high of $10500 and then see how it goes specially entering September-December, in which, based on past price movement, is when investors usually pour their money in crypto-sphere. So I will be optimistic even though that there is a looming financial crisis in the horizon.

[RealMalatesta]

Well, collective intelligence while speaking (or in this case voting) are very different with collective intelligence when it comes to spending your money somewhere. Many people are bullish when it comes to bitcoin in speaking but when you ask them to spend their money and buy some bitcoins you are left alone since they are afraid of doing something like that. In the end I would love to see these results become real but it is a very rare possibility.

The reality is that when people have to spend their own money to make a decision it is almost always different from the answers they would give in polls and that means if the bitcoin price is still loved by people and seen as something that would go up, they do not want to be the one that starts all of it at the beginning.

[Reid]

Voted for 10 to 20k USD.
I am not the pessimistic type but yet not the optimistic type when it comes to bitcoin price.
Some may say 100k or 50k but I dont see any reasons why they could predict way that far.

I think 12k should be the new bottom.
It's also to give room for profits with miners.

[el kaka22]

The idea of this poll ist to find out how collective intelligence could have an effect or seen as a measure for Bitcoins price value.
I do not expect any exact results as the poll is based on ranges and does not realisticly reflect the collective intelligence measuring method.

Unfortunately this bitcoin market is not being controlled by its holders nor this community. We may act based on what we do expect about the future prices of bitcoins but in reality institutional funds and few other whales are manipulating this markets as per their own benefits and all the bitcoiners are here just waiting for those actions.

If we, the holders are deciding the next price range of bitcoin markets then this market might be having bull markets time to time but it seems the number of bitcoin adopters and buyers are always not enough to equalize the block rewards of bitcoin network; there is continuously new bitcoins are being produced and might be sold on markets to create continuous selling pressure. To overcome this selling pressure, external funds are required, it seems.

[Kemarit]

I like the term "Collective Intelligence", sounds like all crypto traders and investors are smart and intelligent, LOL. But I do agree that it is really hard to predict even if he have a poll like this because mindset can change, you are either bullish nor bearish most of the time.

And you are asking for a vote in this community, do you think people here are going to be biased and vote for the price they wanted to see at the end of the year? What if by popular vote they chooses a new all time high or a price that doesn't make sense to reach because of the current situations?

[buwaytress]

I changed my mind at the vote and found myself to be the only dissenting opinion haha... (I'm the one below 10k against in the next range at time of posting).

I do think price will go above 10k in most of the remaining months but I'm also wary of the final quarter of the year, when most economies globally will finally be feeling the first pinch of the contracting productivity and Covid closures. I believe 2021 is when the true fallout begins, but by that time BTC should be standing on stronger legs.

But it will, like back in March, also feel the blowback from the folding of major banks, economies, even some fiats.

[Gozie51]

I believe 2021 is when the true fallout begins, but by that time BTC should be standing on stronger legs.

This time also by next year is when I expect an explosion of price because the economy would have gone into the normal standard. Confidence in investors would come back and that will have positive movement of the market. Bitcoin is trading on a strong support for long above $9k , I expect a gradual breaking of the resistance above $10,000 any time from now.