Bitcoin got more room upside?

[error08]

yes.

first wave ends late dec or jan around 25k-30k

we drop to 15-16k  and in the fall,of 2021

we do second wave cresting around 80k

I have the same thought, bitcoin has the potential to reach $25k-$30k but within this year, the real fomo may starts after bitcoin succeeds surpass $20k+, and expect Bitcoin to reach $35k or more by the end of January, this probably the start of Bitcoin parabolic trajectory, depends on the trend in the market. The retraction probably around 30% i.e. $17k-$21k before starts to climb up again. The second wave is the most interesting part in 2021 as bitcoin always surprise us with the new ath, because bitcoin will be in bubble territory above $50k.

[Ryker1]

Well, the uptrend will still boost on my own because of the mass adoption that we are experiencing right from Paypal, -- but the volatility remains the same. However, in no time or at least on the last week of November or the first week of December we will reach the ^[ATH] and possibly even go beyond $20k but ^[FOMO] could bring everything worse and correction may happen within the year. Predictions can be tough on how bearish it could be but perhaps it will not go lower than $13k once we reach the ^[ATH] for investors will definitely continue to trade and demand keeps on increasing trend so it will help to sustain the value of bitcoin in a good value.

[pixie85]

yes.

first wave ends late dec or jan around 25k-30k

we drop to 15-16k  and in the fall,of 2021

we do second wave cresting around 80k

I'd like this to be true, but if we reach 30 thousand and fall from there, what will stop the market from entering a big 2-3 year bear market like in 2014 and 2018?

25 thousand in 2 months is doable but many analysts predict that if we reach that level it's going to end with at least 2x from the last ATH so 50 thousand or more in 2021, followed by another bear market. Then there are those who predict 200 thousand next year  

[exstasie]

apparently the 1W RSI is already in the resistance zone, for me this is the most accurate indicator,

Be careful relying on oscillators too much. Buying when RSI is oversold and selling when RSI is overbought only works during range markets. During strong bull markets, RSI can become embedded in the 70+ range for months at a time.

Take a look at the 2017 bull market for inspiration:

[dragonvslinux]

Here is a simple chart of Bitcoin now with Relative Strength Index(RSI) indicator.
Why I said Bitcoin got more room upside? Because if we compare the previous RSI value when we reach the all time high, RSI value reached around 90.
Current RSI now, we are still not in 90 value of RSI, so for me I am expecting if we we surpass the previous all-time-high we may still not touch the 90 value of RSI.

What are your thoughts? Can history repeat itself? Like reach the previous ATH with same value of RSI?

I think completely the opposite, to put it simply you are comparing the 2017 ATHs with current "close to new ATH price levels". I see the currently Weekly RSI as a major cause for concern, an enivtable drop in price that will come sooner or later. But when it does, as always, bull market or not, it will be a significant drop whether from here, $20K or $25K.

Finally, if June 2016 RSI is anything to compare current overbought conditions with, then we could be looking at a deeper correction upto 40% and 6 months before making new highs:

If the Weekly RSI get's rejected at 85, not only would be this be completely reasonable, but could lead to months of consolidation after a considerable drop.

[dragonvslinux]

apparently the 1W RSI is already in the resistance zone, for me this is the most accurate indicator,

Be careful relying on oscillators too much. Buying when RSI is oversold and selling when RSI is overbought only works during range markets. During strong bull markets, RSI can become embedded in the 70+ range for months at a time.

Not forgetting the RSI is not really meant to be traded, but instead utlizied as a reference point of price strength. Mainly for bullish and bearish divergences that can be acted upon, rather than selling when overbought and buying when oversold. Even May last year was a good example of why selling oversold around $7.5K would have been a very bad.

If you want to trade the RSI it's recommended to buy when strength is leaving the oversold conditions, or sell when leaving the overbought conditions. But even this is a very weak way to trade imo without doing it based on the divergence of price strength. At the moment, on the Weekly scale, there is 0 divergence, only bullish overbought conditions.

To me at the moment the Weekly RSI is screaming "caution", not buy or sell and definitely not short either. Soz double post I realise...

[exstasie]

apparently the 1W RSI is already in the resistance zone, for me this is the most accurate indicator,

Be careful relying on oscillators too much. Buying when RSI is oversold and selling when RSI is overbought only works during range markets. During strong bull markets, RSI can become embedded in the 70+ range for months at a time.

Not forgetting the RSI is not really meant to be traded, but instead utlizied as a reference point of price strength. Mainly for bullish and bearish divergences that can be acted upon, rather than selling when overbought and buying when oversold.

Divergence analysis is very common today but it wasn't why RSI was developed or how it's traditionally been used.

The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems."

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp

Since he said RSI was in a resistance zone and that he was expecting an imminent correction, I assumed that's what he meant.

Even May last year was a good example of why selling oversold overbought around $7.5K would have been a very bad.

My point exactly.

Then again, the purpose of selling overbought conditions is to lock in profits before a correction. I suppose that's a fair enough strategy for dollar-minded traders who want to preserve capital. I'm personally more concerned about losing coins than dollars, so it's not an ideal strategy. But to each his own.

[Bergluft]

yes.

first wave ends late dec or jan around 25k-30k

we drop to 15-16k  and in the fall,of 2021

we do second wave cresting around 80k

I'd like this to be true, but if we reach 30 thousand and fall from there, what will stop the market from entering a big 2-3 year bear market like in 2014 and 2018?

25 thousand in 2 months is doable but many analysts predict that if we reach that level it's going to end with at least 2x from the last ATH so 50 thousand or more in 2021, followed by another bear market. Then there are those who predict 200 thousand next year  

This would be the healthiest scenario. I think if we directly go up to 30k now and crash from there, we will probably see another bear market for the next two years. A smaller correction to 15k now will give opportunity for people to enter that now are thinking they missed the train, just as people start seeing the bitcoin logo on their paypal accounts.