Avoid speculating on the BTC/USD rate

[oscarguindzberg]

I am going to do some work and I will get paid a fixed amount of BTC in around 9 months.
I plan to sell those BTC as I receive them.
I am happy with the current BTC/USD market price and I don't want to speculate.
Is there a trade I could do to compensate for the BTC/USD volatility?

I don't have the amount of BTC I will eventually receive, so I can not sell my own BTC now as a hedge.
I guess the de-facto way to do this is to buy a put option. AFAIK deribit.com is the only exchange I could use to do this.
Short sell with margin trade on a bigger exchange is a valid option. But I may get out of collateral if BTC/USD goes up and down several times in the next few months.
I would prefer to minimize having any kind of funds on exchanges (especially smaller ones) because they are usually hacked or go bankrupt. If having funds in a crypto exchange is required, I would try to split the trade between several exchanges.

So, what would be the lesser evil?

[jackg]

Are you trying to sell or trying to speculate?

I've only heard "put option" be used in terms of speculation.

Why are you wanting to avoid volatility? If you're wanting fixed amounts in fiat you need to be paid fixed amounts in fiat... If you're just worried you'll get less funds then I wouldn't be if I were you unless there's a large crash you probably wouldn't notice the difference. €2000 with a crash of say €4000 on the market price doesn't actually look too much different when you withdraw it.

[oscarguindzberg]

Are you trying to sell or trying to speculate?

I've only heard "put option" be used in terms of speculation.

Why are you wanting to avoid volatility? If you're wanting fixed amounts in fiat you need to be paid fixed amounts in fiat... If you're just worried you'll get less funds then I wouldn't be if I were you unless there's a large crash you probably wouldn't notice the difference. €2000 with a crash of say €4000 on the market price doesn't actually look too much different when you withdraw it.

I don't want to speculate with this money.
If you buy a put option, you have the right to sell crypto at X date for Y USD. That could be used to speculate or to reduce risk (my case).
I can not ask to be paid in fiat, the payment will be a fixed amount of btc.

[BitMaxz]

If you are afraid of volatility why not exchange your BTC into USDT or any stable coin where you can use later to exchange to BTC back if you want to or if you know that the BTC will increase again.
And honestly, you don't need to speculate if you believe in Bitcoin and you want to get more profits in the next price increase why not hold? or use exchanges where you can set stop-limit order when the price is about to drop it will trigger once the price of Bitcoin drops after the price increase. In this type of order, you can avoid losing profit.

Try to learn about any types of orders from Binance here https://www.binance.com/en/support/articles/360033779452-Types-of-Order
Binance would be the better best place and safe that I know as of now to keep BTC while waiting for another price increase(Not actually recommended to hold BTC to any exchanges).

[OcTradism]

If you are afraid of volatility why not exchange your BTC into USDT or any stable coin where you can use later to exchange to BTC back if you want to or if you know that the BTC will increase again.
And honestly, you don't need to speculate if you believe in Bitcoin and you want to get more profits in the next price increase why not hold? or use exchanges where you can set stop-limit order when the price is about to drop it will trigger once the price of Bitcoin drops after the price increase. In this type of order, you can avoid losing profit.

Try to learn about any types of orders from Binance here https://www.binance.com/en/support/articles/360033779452-Types-of-Order
Binance would be the better best place and safe that I know as of now to keep BTC while waiting for another price increase(Not actually recommended to hold BTC to any exchanges).

Convert BTC to USDT or other stable coins to avoid the volatility of bitcoin price and any loss is good. Unfortunately, there is risks by using stable coins to store your asset. It is risk and can happen or not happen but beware of risks and make decisions.
[UPDATED] PSA: Most Stablecoins Can Be Frozen, Even in Your Own Wallets

The Bitcoin will be bullish in 2021 and holding bitcoin won't bring holders loss in the next year. I understand OP can worry temp loss if bitcoin crashes by pullbacks. It is a difficult choice to make, sure.

$2.3B in Bitcoin exchange outflows dwarfs the amount of new BTC mined
The Number of BTC On Exchanges Is Down Almost 7%
True bitcoiners don't worry about volatility and temp losses.

[davis196]

am going to do some work and I will get paid a fixed amount of BTC in around 9 months.
I plan to sell those BTC as I receive them.

9 months is a pretty long time frame in the crypto industry.Anything can happen on the market for 9 months.
I don't understand what exactly do you want to do.
If you are going to receive a fixed amount of USD worth of Bitcoins(let's say 100USD),then you just sell them after you receive the BTC and you get the 100USD.I don't see a problem here.
If you are about hot get a fixed amount of BTC(let's say 0.01)after 9 months,then you will have to find a way to hedge.
However,I don't recommend cryptocurrency option services,like the website you mentioned.This doesn't seem legit to me.

[oscarguindzberg]

I just want to make sure I will get USD 23.000 for each btc I receive around September 2021.

[jackg]

I just want to make sure I will get USD 23.000 for each btc I receive around September 2021.

This isn't possible. You can't sell it for higher or lower than the current value unless someone agrees in advance to buy it at that rate and you promise not to go to an exchange if the price goes up...

If someone agreed to this and the price on the markets was $40k, would you stick with them or turn to the market?

[goinmerry]

I just want to make sure I will get USD 23.000 for each btc I receive around September 2021.

Don't make things complicated. It's impossible to speculate on what will be the bitcoin price 9 months from now.

Either, take it or leave it.

What matters here is, you will receive a fixed payment of BTC within 9 months regardless of its price. Who knows that in 2021, there will be more fuel to lift BTC in another massive uptrend.

[tbct_mt2]

Either, take it or leave it.

It is an option game, like option trading. People can not want both, have bitcoin in the pocket and don't want the value in USD falls. Bitcoin is volatile and it can rise or fall.

Don't make things complicated. It's impossible to speculate on what will be the bitcoin price 9 months from now.

What matters here is, you will receive a fixed payment of BTC within 9 months regardless of its price. Who knows that in 2021, there will be more fuel to lift BTC in another massive uptrend.

9 months is a long time in crypto market. In this year, in the March, bitcoin crashed to below $4,000 and now it smashed through $23,000. If history repeats itself, the next year will be a bull year for bitcoin so in next 9 months, bitcoin can double its price in minimum. It is not speculative advice for OP. He needs to decide which asset he wants to have in pocket (wallet): bitcoin or USD or USDT then decision will be made too easy.

[RealMalatesta]

I would say instead of trying to manage what you will get paid in 9 months, just let things be whatever they are in 9 months and deal with that whenever it comes. First of all if you could manage to survive for 9 months without too much debt, and when you receive that bitcoin you are still doing fine, I would say try to either not cash that out at all, or if you have to, cash out as minimum as you can, without cashing it all out into fiat currency, that is not a good idea.

However let's assume that you have to cash them all, there isn't anything you can do from today, just focus on what will happen that day when the time comes, and not beforehand, it will help you focus on what you can do today and allow you to do a great job for that payment, and when the payment comes you can end up with a lot of bitcoin wholesale and just sell them, without doing anything today about it.

[so98nn]

I just want to make sure I will get USD 23.000 for each btc I receive around September 2021.

This isn't possible. You can't sell it for higher or lower than the current value unless someone agrees in advance to buy it at that rate and you promise not to go to an exchange if the price goes up...

If someone agreed to this and the price on the markets was $40k, would you stick with them or turn to the market?

This is exactly turning back into speculation thing as opposed by the OP. I mean they claim to avoid speculation but in the mean time hope that they will have the same price (i.e. 23k) by the end of Sept 2020. This is straight speculation that you will still get the same price no matter of what.

You can not deny the fact that this market is fully volatile and will keep up doing so forever due to its basic programming of open market / public ledger.

You can not lock on to fixed price, and there is no service or firm which can make bonds to fix the price that too for period of 9 months.


Truly said by @jackg, what if the prices are double the current one? You will be held responsible for your own loss.

[TheGreatPython]

If I got you right you said that you’re doing a work and in like nine months you will be receiving money and the money will be paid in a fixed BTC, for example they told you 1 BTC, and whether the price of BTC goes up or down, in the next nine months you’re going to receive 1 BTC right?

Okay, the nine months should be around August of next year, and right now the market is already bullish, so what do you think will be happening in around August of next year, do you think that the price of Bitcoin will increase or that it’s going to decrease? Because as I am seeing it the market won’t be bullish till then. But anyway, it’s yours to decide.

[darewaller]

You can't really avoid speculating on bitcoin, we are all speculating on bitcoin at all times, there is really no guaranteed way to get paid fixed amount if you are going to get paid in fixed bitcoin amount. lets assume you get paid 1 bitcoin, that means around $23k-24k these days right? If you are going to get paid in 9 months, you are going to get paid 1 btc whatever worths that day, nothing you can do today can make sure that you get paid $23k-24k range in 9 months.

However see this as a good thing, because in the end even though there is a chance you might be paid less, there is also a chance you could get paid more as well, which should be your focus. After all, if you do not love bitcoin all that much, why did you accepted a payment in bitcoin, just tell the guy that you want fiat, and if he really wants to pay you in fiat, he could have just sold bitcoin today, and wait for 9 months and give that to you instead.