DISCLAIMER: This article is created only in purpose of providing informations about $Ampleforth. I am only an economist and I just invest in cryptocurrencies, the argues in this article should not be considered FUD, financial advice or so. If you have no idea about what Ampleforth is, I do not suggest you to read this article. I will not provide any info about how the rebase system of $AMPL works.
I can assure that you’ll never lose money by investing $AMPLEFORTH after reading and comperehending this article properly! When I first discovered $Ampleforth, one of my friend said that “I bought almost at 4$ and I got profit today, in 5 days.” and I was mindfucked. First, I thought it works like staking or something but it was different.
And when I started to do research about $AMPL, the first word that came from my mouth was, “Nash!” .
Who is Nash, and what is Nash Equilibrium?Maybe some of you are familiar with John Nash name who is subject in the movie named “A Beautiful Mind”. He made great contributions to game theory, which we call “prisoner’s dilemma”.
Nash Equilibrium proposes that only if everyone in the group works for the other that the each member of the group can take benefit (profit), in the movie, take the blonde.
And the prisoner’s dilemma was created as people are greedy most of the time, only working for themselves selfishly.
https://miro.medium.com/max/436/1*VKWwwzAMQ5Zlj9mtL4r6tQ@2x.jpegIf you want to learn more about Prisoner’s Dilemma, check below:
https://youtu.be/NdITTDl5coEWhy $AMPL can’t stay above 2$ more than 5 days?Prisoner’s dilemma, or game theory, is mostly used by Las Vegas Casinos to make most of the gamblers lose their money, making them addicted to think “they can win”.
Do you remember the chart above? Let’s integrate it with $AMPL:Note: Imagine the numbers are scores of a football match. First numbers are (6,0). It means team is forward 6 numbers.- If $AMPL is below 0.95$, it is (6,0). The team wins because circulating supply is decreasing and it is good for project in long term.
If it is between 1.05–2$, it’s (3,3), that’s good for both investor and the team. Project catches more investor and keep the Nash Balance in terms of rewards/supply.
But if it is above 2$, it is only good for investor (0,6), and bad for the project and the team in long term as circulating supply doesn’t meet the market cap.
Remember when AMPL hit 4$ and dumped to 1.3$, almost going to negative when it was too early.So team is selling his tokens when $AMPL is above 2$ for more than 5 days.If these are ridiculous to you, check Ampleforth’s chart carefully 
Oh well, yes, I said that “team is selling” when $AMPL is 2$ or more. No offending, as they are selling their unlocked tokens, but in reaaaally heavy bags.
One of the selling wallets:
https://etherscan.io/address/0x834e62d799e1ac21114f110c433a85afac36be12#tokentxnsThis is not a FUD. They’re trying to keep the project more sustainable by doing this, and filling their bags as they’ve waited too much for it. And you can get stupified while following the wallets as they are like matryoshka.
Note: Positive rebases are not good for $Ampleforth, the project doesn’t grow when it’s making everyone rich. To be honest, it’s impossible for everyone to win. Most of the people should lose their money in Ampleforth, according to the game theory.How to trade $Ampleforth then?It’s so simple that you’ll regret not having done this so far.
- Just wait for it to pass 0.95$, as it is safety area for investor, and the team (according to game theory of course). Both can win. 15% profit is guaranteed.
Use stop-loss for below 0.95$.
Sell your initial if it immediately hits 2$ to be safe.
Never do all-in.
That’s it. You’ll see that whenever Ampleforth passes above 0.95$, it hits at least 1.20$.
How to HODL $Ampleforth?This part is little bit confusing.
- If the $Ampleforth is already in negative rebase, it should give positive reaction after around 24 days.
This is because negative rebases hit around -53%, -61% (Fibonacci will give a clap to me.)
https://miro.medium.com/max/700/1*AGvXylft12jCRaJ3j40v3w@2x.jpegYou can calculate it by some of the websites on internet. After this guy’s portfolio hit -53% rebase, Ampleforth pumped to 2.45$ without a reason, circulating supply was 190million.
- Market sell if the circulating supply hits 250million.
Calculate positive rebase rates and how many tokens will be added to circulating supply at the end of the day.
Do not calculate market cap, supply calculation is better. Market cap calculation is for losers who think they are master of $AMPL.
If $Ampleforth is already in positive rebase, don’t enter if it’s above 2$, wait for between 1–2$. But be sure that people are not exiting.
You should know that, last FOMO will not happen again. Even now, the circulating supply of $Ampleforth hit 100million, but it’s still struggling to give positive rebases.I hope it’s clear for everyone. Thanks for your interest.
Hello Evan Kuo, gatcha!Edit: sorry for text that looks ugly
