What will happen next if the resistance breaks?

[KTChampions]

There will always be technical improvements. I'm just saying speculators tend to front run them, buying today based on tomorrow's expected utility. That's why BTC price can rise exponentially in a bubble despite the disappointing UX, fees, etc. newcomers face.

I just thought that speculators can accelerate the price of bitcoin and lead to these sad consequences (high fees, etc.) even if the development of bitcoin at some point will outstrip user requests. That is, it turns out that in any case, speculators can lead everything to an absurd situation. This is both funny and sad at the same time.

Now the network bandwidth is close to its maximum. No hype with new users can happen purely for technical reasons. This means that you need to add a couple of stages of development to your scheme.

I don't think so. Price tells the whole story. It's been rising into this network congestion. Speculators don't care how high fees are, as long as they expect to make much bigger profits by trading or holding.

I don't think that a 10-20 percent price increase can be called a new hype. Perhaps the price can rise up to 20-30k dollars "on old luggage" (technical part), but can it stay there for a long time? I doubt it.

[FanEagle]

The only reason why bitcoin goes up is literally demand, we are not producing anything, we are not used in anything neither, we are just a currency and that's it, it is not a product.

So, the only way bitcoin could ever come up is if there is more bitcoins bought on the market than sold, which causes people to buy more expensive increasing the price since the sellers are not willing to sell any cheaper, that is supply/demand 101 and that is the only thing in crypto market that drives the price; which means with all these paypal and all these other stuff that happened this week, price went up because there were more people who wanted to buy than who wanted to sell.

Resistance points are there to show people where the common "this is good enough to take out my profit" levels are but when you break over them, it is easy to go higher and higher.

[exstasie]

Price tells the whole story. It's been rising into this network congestion. Speculators don't care how high fees are, as long as they expect to make much bigger profits by trading or holding.

I don't think that a 10-20 percent price increase can be called a new hype. Perhaps the price can rise up to 20-30k dollars "on old luggage" (technical part), but can it stay there for a long time? I doubt it.

How much did Bitcoin really change between the 2013 and 2017 bubbles?

With that in mind, consider that the market rose from the $200s to $20K. When we were in the $200s, someone with your mentality would never have believed price could stay above $3K (or $10K, etc.) for such a long time. And yet we have.

Speculators are buying up all the BTC. They have been since inception, really. That throws a wrench into this theory that everything is dependent on big improvements in utility.

[KTChampions]

I don't think that a 10-20 percent price increase can be called a new hype. Perhaps the price can rise up to 20-30k dollars "on old luggage" (technical part), but can it stay there for a long time? I doubt it.

How much did Bitcoin really change between the 2013 and 2017 bubbles?

With that in mind, consider that the market rose from the $200s to $20K. When we were in the $200s, someone with your mentality would never have believed price could stay above $3K (or $10K, etc.) for such a long time. And yet we have.

Speculators are buying up all the BTC. They have been since inception, really. That throws a wrench into this theory that everything is dependent on big improvements in utility.

In fact, I separate the speculation component and the real use of bitcoin, I understand that they are related, but I am more interested in the real use.
You ask about differences by implying that they are either absent or insignificant. But tell me, could we imagine in 2013 that bitcoin would have a bandwidth problem? How often did we see this problem in those years? And in 2017, this problem has already become a new reality. We can call it differently, but the fact is that bitcoin/its demand has radically changed.
And now if you look into the future and think that "speculators and their influence on bitcoin will be the same as in the past, technical improvements are not critical", then I think this will be a mistake.

[redsun114]

The increases affecting the price of bitcoin transactions are one of the reasons why the increase gets hampered and stopped, it was like that last time it happened and it is like that this time it happens as well and I do not see it as something that could help bitcoin in anyway.

I had to receive some money yesterday for example and instead of using bitcoin we used tron and it was both much faster (literally just a minute or maybe sooner) and the cost was basically nothing at all, so at the end of the day why use bitcoin and pay 30+ bucks when you could just use another coin? Which makes people question if I am not going to use bitcoin and the transaction is such a huge hassle and cost, why not pick another coin? Which slows down the increase in bitcoin price.

We need lightning network or something else to make bitcoin transactions faster and cheaper to go 20k+ once again.

[Fredomago]

The increases affecting the price of bitcoin transactions are one of the reasons why the increase gets hampered and stopped, it was like that last time it happened and it is like that this time it happens as well and I do not see it as something that could help bitcoin in anyway.

I had to receive some money yesterday for example and instead of using bitcoin we used tron and it was both much faster (literally just a minute or maybe sooner) and the cost was basically nothing at all, so at the end of the day why use bitcoin and pay 30+ bucks when you could just use another coin? Which makes people question if I am not going to use bitcoin and the transaction is such a huge hassle and cost, why not pick another coin? Which slows down the increase in bitcoin price.

We need lightning network or something else to make bitcoin transactions faster and cheaper to go 20k+ once again.

Make sense, if we do have same capabilities transacting using bitcoin it's much better and more people will use it and won't hesitate to support and have a much better value.

There are always good arguments regarding to this but the adjustment needs to be done in order to bring more interest to this system.

For now, we have to deal with it and see how things may turned after breaking another
height, there's need more developments and adjustment.

[STT]

I see it the other way possibly, the fees being higher slows down possible spending even if it was light and far more switch strategy to all or nothing because that matches with the costs.   It helps sustain the pricing in BTC by restricting the supply from light spending, people of course always have some dollars for minor transactions.   Overall high fees are a negative and represent inefficiency but the ironic effect in price is positive near term is my take.

The only reason why bitcoin goes up is literally demand

Speculation is a massive amount of BTC holding, I wish it was all demand and proper usage but alot is just the idea that Dollar will only become worth less every quarter or year at least and so there is little to lose from withholding some of the known limited supply to BTC.   Its a new unique asset in the world and supposing technology is growing and more people will find at least some use the premise to hold is reasonable.
   However this is speculation distinct from demand imo, we dont know the path for BTC absolutely and if the BTC is not circulating then its not demand from usage.   Some might say its no difference, demand is the same however its used but unused BTC I rate second to actual growth of real used BTC.   I see weakness when too many speculate, deflation will occur as QE is no replacement for actual GDP growth and ultimately we will realise failure and loss of value in an economy which is deflation and default so quite simply volatility and rocky ground will upset speculators who need the easy money drift up.

[redsun114]

~snip~

Speculation creates the demand, or at least lack of supply, we are talking about the same thing. You are saying that there are things like fee's not allowing people to spend as much as they want which causes it to go up, or things like speculation of dollar not being as valuable as it used to be that makes people go towards bitcoin.

These are all true and I agree with all of these points but at the bare bottom these do connect to supply and demand as well. People not being able to spend because it is expensive means there is a lack of supply due to a reason, or people thinking dollar will be less valuable and move to bitcoin means there is more demand. So, supply/demand could be found in every single reason why bitcoin price moves and we are in a more demand heavy period now.

[exstasie]

How much did Bitcoin really change between the 2013 and 2017 bubbles?

With that in mind, consider that the market rose from the $200s to $20K. When we were in the $200s, someone with your mentality would never have believed price could stay above $3K (or $10K, etc.) for such a long time. And yet we have.

Speculators are buying up all the BTC. They have been since inception, really. That throws a wrench into this theory that everything is dependent on big improvements in utility.

In fact, I separate the speculation component and the real use of bitcoin, I understand that they are related, but I am more interested in the real use.
You ask about differences by implying that they are either absent or insignificant. But tell me, could we imagine in 2013 that bitcoin would have a bandwidth problem? How often did we see this problem in those years?

It was being discussed as a practical issue by early 2013, and a theoretical issue long before that: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.20

In fact, in 2013 the 250kb soft block size limit was lifted for this reason. In other words, in 2013 it was well known that Bitcoin had very limited transaction per second capabilities, and may continue to have those limits going forward.

And in 2017, this problem has already become a new reality. We can call it differently, but the fact is that bitcoin/its demand has radically changed.

Adoption and accumulation continue, sure, but the fact that BTC exponentially increased in price in 2017 goes to show how disconnected price and underlying utility can be. Speculators just don't care about fees and congestion.

And now if you look into the future and think that "speculators and their influence on bitcoin will be the same as in the past, technical improvements are not critical", then I think this will be a mistake.

That statement would be a lot more valid if BTC were trading in the $3,000s, or below $1,000. As it stands, it's obvious that demand is extremely strong in spite of the same limitations that existed after the activation of Segwit in 2017.

[KTChampions]

~
Adoption and accumulation continue, sure, but the fact that BTC exponentially increased in price in 2017 goes to show how disconnected price and underlying utility can be. Speculators just don't care about fees and congestion.
~

Why do you blame this growth only on speculation? Maybe it was caused precisely by the adoption and accumulation that reached a certain limit and "the dam burst"? In the modern digital world, where any trend can cover the entire population of the Earth in a week, this is quite possible.

And now if you look into the future and think that "speculators and their influence on bitcoin will be the same as in the past, technical improvements are not critical", then I think this will be a mistake.

That statement would be a lot more valid if BTC were trading in the $3,000s, or below $1,000. As it stands, it's obvious that demand is extremely strong in spite of the same limitations that existed after the activation of Segwit in 2017.

Honestly, I don't understand you. Why exactly these levels? And what does it really matter to accurately determine the level at which technical difficulties arise - 30k or 50k or 1 million? They will arise and it would be good to get rid of the problems in advance.

[STT]

Now you know what happens when resistance breaks, it rises alot more freely then any time normally.    Only problem I find is to weigh the significance of a trend and its potential to then rise.     We had a move in July then downtrend and that broke and now this almost constant rise seems like.



Action in the last month, push past 50 day trend which was declining then onto the declining trend which it followed for a week then a break up.   Possibly exhaustion after this large bar today, not sure.