Translation of the article
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286524.0 if it is completely bad, tell me and remove it, or if there is a desire - take up the translation
Why to guess about the movement of prices,
when it is possible to collect facts before the coupe,
which will show her where to take off
Consider several points:1) - bitcoin cost
2) - price behavior at certain time intervals
3) - based on the information passed, let's figure out where the price will move on
4) - the long life of Bitcoin or his victory over the strong of this world
5) - we draw conclusions
We will start1) There is such an article "the cost of bitcoin production" and many know it -
https://medium.com/capriole/bitcoins-production-cost-88d889462ea7Briefly, its essence is: the University of Cambridge published a detailed study on the basis of which they created an indicator "Bitcoin production cost," which shows the average cost of beethoven around the world, it forms a channel with lower and upper price boundaries, the lower is the cost of pure electricity needed to create 1 composition of beethoven, and the upper shows the total cost, which includes all the associated costs of this mining enterprise (rent, salary, afterburner and other discos)
Looks like this:
Relying on it, we can say that all miners on the planet earn, the price should be higher than the channel, if it is in it, then someone has to pull money out of his pocket and feed his enterprise, which, in theory, should feed you, this process cannot last indefinitely otherwise the activity will simply stop, then sooner or later the price will return to the upper border of the channel. With this approach, the question arises - when is it best to invest in bathhoven? I think the answer is visible, i.e. when the price is just in this zone, from 2018 to this day it has been in it several times. This is the first moment that tells us about the ideal moment of investment. Further more
2) Now let's consider the behavior of the price at certain time intervals, namely -
after halvingRead more on the screen:
Now what if we put these two facts on each other? Cost indicator and price behavior after halving.
We get:
This gave us an answer to the questions: the perfect time to invest and this is the real bottom3) On average, all bulls expect the price to reach the cherished mark of 100,000, recall what was passed and add
how many times did the price increase from the first halving of $5 to a hay of 1100 + -?
220 times
how many times did the price rise from the second halving of $450 to the hay of $19900 + -?
44 timeswhy not the price from the moment of the third halving in 9000 $ + - do not rise at least.........
10 times? It will be
$90.000Psychological marks:
= > The first-ever top has overcome $1,000
= > The second-ever top has overcome $10,000
= > The third in history top will overcome.... 100.000$?
An interesting option when there will be a new top:
All reputable persons who dare or want to say about the future price, say this, do reviews, there is enough information already that was not there before.
Not me, not you have good acquaintances from the advanced Bitcoin of the world who can share information from the first lips, say "these are the things that we go there and here"
For example, the Winklevoss brothers, the founders of the Gemini exchange
https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/gemini/ on which, by the way, a small number of crypts are traded, which suggests that they work with those whom they trust? I.e. can you say the crypt that they have, has one of the highest chances of taking off?
The story of the first billionaire Bitcoin brothers:https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/winklevoss-twins-may-have-become-first-bitcoin-billionaires.htmlWhat did they do during the bear market in 2018? They kept bitcoins, according to them, when the news was drenched with another mention and counting, how many times their condition decreased.
Recently, they shared what price they expect:
The U.S. dollar is no longer a reliable store of value. @winklevoss and I make the case for $500K #Bitcoin
https://twitter.com/tyler/status/1299023374392360964The Winklevoss brothers named the reasons for the future rise in the price of Bitcoin to $500 000
The first crypto billionaires and founders of the Gemini exchange believe that gold, the dollar and oil are losing their positions.
https://bitxmiexchange.medium.com/the-winklevoss-brothers-named-the-reasons-btc-increase-to-500-000-691e170ea7d1In my subjective opinion, if the first high was for 1000, the second for 10,000, and the third will overcome 100,000,
then we get the answer to the second question: the time of profit fixing is a new top, let there be a range of 70,000-100,000.
As for the forecasts of the brothers, it is logical to assume that Bitcoin remained with us for a very long time and they hint at such a figure in Sio. Let's go to the next item
4) Give a couple of examples
a) In Japan, a law recognizing bitcoins as a means of payment has entered into force
https://www.coindesk.com/japan-bitcoin-law-effect-tomorrowb) In 2014, just when the first Bitcoin top occurred, China began to fight it on a large scale, prohibiting everyone and all activities related to Bitcoin. Further in 2017, ICO bans and other tricks.
Clearly it looks like this:
And then all of a sudden there's this news:
https://thebitcoinnews.com/china-bitcoin-has-shown-the-safe-haven-feature/In fact, this is a recognition of the defeat and victory of Bitcoin, because at the government level such things are said
for a long time, so they
admit that
BTC will live for a long time5) The longer Bitcoin lives - the more Halving will occur, the higher the price must be. Why? Response to surfaces.
- mining equipment to remain at the same level in terms of costs/revenues, Each halving must go ashiki/mining equipment that will be 2 times more powerful at the same operating costs, thus miners receive an equal exchange, to extract bitcoins of steel 2 times less, received equipment 2 times more powerful, at the exit how much was mined, how much is mined, the profit is the same (without other accounts). Otherwise, it will move the price up whether they want it or not
- the growing complexity of mining, due to which all miners gradually extract less and less bitcoins every second, i.e. they develop less and less - another factor pushing the price up
- increasing cost of Bitcoin production due to increasing mining complexity and other factors
Simply put: the condition of life of Bitcoin = > Halving = > price increaseWhat can the price reach in the future?
Let's think about the minimum: halving once every 4 years = doubling the price from the moment of the 3rd halving. Let's say the strong of this world see that Beethoven will sing another 10 halves
We use the following table:
Halving Reward for Block Price at the time of halving
11.05.2020 6.25 BTC 9000$
01.05.2024 3.125 BTC 18000$
01.05.2028 1.56 BTC 36000$
2032 0.78 BTC 72000$
2036 0.39 BTC 144000$
2040 0.195 BTC 288000$
2044 0.097 BTC 576000$
2048 0.0488 BTC 1152000$
2052 0.0244 BTC 2304000$
2056 0.0122 BTC 4608000$
2060 0.0061 BTC 9216000$
I think about such calculations are carried out by all top of exchanges and miners.
You can also add that Bitcoin is a new world crypto currency... Why? In 2017, there were 300-700 crypts on coinmarketcap, which were traded for it, and now how many?
https://coinmarketcap.com/There is a sea of badcoins/projects, right, but also worthy projects, everyone will first of all trade for the
BTC. Is it good or bad? I would prefer that the domination of Bitcoin be reduced as much as possible, but the world is showing us a different alignment at the moment.
But this cannot continue indefinitely, because in the future the price will be completely space, I think something should happen at a certain moment when it will become really not profitable and it will be replaced by something
Conclusions:
No. 1: if you were looking for time to invest and fix the profit, I think you and I found it
No. 2: estimated time of the new top - November/December 2021 - January 2022
No. 3: considering the long life of Bitcoin, we can say that everyone who today has at least 1 in the cache is a millionaire, a matter of time. For you, it will be or for relatives, children, the fact remains - you almost secured yourself and your family a wealthy life or just steeply increase capital
To all worthy of profit
