Could 2018 repeat itself? Price approaching 20K and high fees followed by crash

[Stedsm]

Miners are not getting ^less fees^ tbh and based on the current value of BTC, it looks justifiable. When we talk about miners, it's them prioritizing the high fee transactions which is why the low fee transactions just remain in the mempool and it gets clogged, this gives even higher boost and edges it up to more higher fees than the already high ones. Even if we try to send our transaction with a low priority fee, I don't think that miners will be mining it any time soon because big players are already paying hefty amounts in fees to them.

Wait!
Are we doing the wrong thing by blaming miners? Aren't some firms intentionally paying high fees to keep the bar up and make the end user pay more fees to get a place for their transaction in a block? Think it for a second. Why would miners intentionally do that?

[dunfida]

Miners are not getting ^less fees^ tbh and based on the current value of BTC, it looks justifiable. When we talk about miners, it's them prioritizing the high fee transactions which is why the low fee transactions just remain in the mempool and it gets clogged, this gives even higher boost and edges it up to more higher fees than the already high ones. Even if we try to send our transaction with a low priority fee, I don't think that miners will be mining it any time soon because big players are already paying hefty amounts in fees to them.

Wait!
Are we doing the wrong thing by blaming miners? Aren't some firms intentionally paying high fees to keep the bar up and make the end user pay more fees to get a place for their transaction in a block? Think it for a second. Why would miners intentionally do that?

Dont know why they do talk about high fees yet its almost on dust amount even the price of bitcoin is clinging up to 17k

Low priority
8 sat/vB ($0.19)
   
Medium priority
10 sat/vB ($0.23)
   
High priority
11 sat/vB ($0.25)

People are way too exagerrated without even trying to check out the real numbers.
https://mempool.space/

[Stedsm]

--snip--

I already know the website that you shared and I know some even better than these. It's like, the costs get adjusted every few days and I believe we'll once again see the fees popping up higher once we start the march towards $20k. Let's just wait and watch, and if the fee remains nearby the same values as you've mentioned atm, we'd be lucky enough this time that BTC will have things maintained the way it did in its low price days.

[nutildah]

It would appear that fee spikes occur for 2 reasons combined:

- an increase in network demand on the network, most notably when people are moving coins on and off exchanges, and

- an unfavorable shift in hash rate or mining difficulty that makes it harder to mine blocks within 10 minutes of each other.

After both things have been occurring simultaneously for a while, a backlog of transactions develops and fees rise. One thing or the other might be tolerable but when both happen, the network overloads and fees go up. It's kind of unavoidable.

[jseverson]

I'm not expecting a major crash this time around because apart from Bitcoin transcending all the bubble talk that plagued the 2017 run, we actually have transparent institutional support this time around; people are much less likely to panic sell if they're seeing big brands like Paypal get in on the fun.

Panic selling is not just characteristic of Bitcoin. After gold's exponential rise into 2011, it crashed 46%. You think gold lacks institutional support?

I was mostly referring to the likelihood of it happening, considering how much more volatile Bitcoin can be than gold. You raise a good point though. Now that we've climbed from ~$17k to ~$18k in 12-ish hours, I'm definitely expecting a sizable correction -- I just hope it happens sooner rather than later lol.

[exstasie]

Panic selling is not just characteristic of Bitcoin. After gold's exponential rise into 2011, it crashed 46%. You think gold lacks institutional support?

I was mostly referring to the likelihood of it happening, considering how much more volatile Bitcoin can be than gold. You raise a good point though. Now that we've climbed from ~$17k to ~$18k in 12-ish hours, I'm definitely expecting a sizable correction -- I just hope it happens sooner rather than later lol.

The way I see it, there's going to be painful corrections all the way up. And the more exponential the upside becomes, the deeper the corrections (in % terms) will be. Good examples would be the $3,000-$1,800 (June-July) and $5,000-$3,000 (September) pullbacks in 2017. A lot of people probably don't realize that a similar pullback now would put us in the low $11,000s or upper $10,000s.

With great volatility comes great pain.