I personally don't think that calling the top using point #1 and #2 is quite accurate. Because while I don't like being the guy to say "this time it's different", I think the statement "past performance is not indicative of future results" is strongly at play here.
I'll still give you a merit though, because at least you've given us an actual hypothesis rather than the typical "price $x is the top because I think so".
There is a certain narrative that we are going to hit the top this year...because thats
what happened in 2017. I rarely sell and when I do its because I have to regardless
of the price so I dont study charts etc.
I am looking at the underlying reasons which has fed this bull run - COVID, and the
consequences of the fiscal stimuli across the world - inflation which has yet
to be realised.
Also we have seen a lot of institutional investors jump into this, they say they are in
to preserve their wealth and are not interested in selling next year or the year after
or short to medium term.
