Actually you are right about it on guesses since we are not sure whether that prediction of ours will come true or not but the difference is that we are not just randomly guessing but we are using available data that we are going to analyze on what could possibly happened in the market and once we convinced ourselves on what most likely going to happened in the market that's the time we are going to buy or sell.
So for me it's not likely a guessing but predicting based on the analysis and available data.
It is definitely guesses and nothing more, he/you are right. We could find some directions and we could see some stuff, but there is never a guarantee on what will happen and all we could do right now is to make sure that we are on the right side of the prediction game. If we keep on investing at a level where it is not really that much of a big deal, then we are going to end up with a big loss and it is not going to end that well for us at all.
Best case would be to just focus on long term because the prediction is a lot easier there. To predict that bitcoin will be higher in the long term, in a few years, should not be that hard, still not guaranteed but close to being a sure thing.
