I'm one of the 65%. My last chart thought BTC will reach 24k-25k at end of August but it didn't. Somehow I ignored that we were in a ghost month last August. Maybe because I am not doing active trades anymore since last month. Now BTC needs to hold the 18k-19k level otherwise there will be another dip in the next months to come.
The chart for the past few weeks is almost touched the recovery for 25k but unfortunately the correction came faster to return at 20k, actually I am worried at the stable 20k because the market is very easy to fall in the 18k-19k call area for the next correction, so the final conclusion is at 17k if it doesn't hold, then the low price for a new record will be released soon.
Price did in fact twice wick above $25K, reaching a swing high of around $25.2K based on index price, but clearly this acted as resistance as opposed to moving above. $20K certainly looks like an important level for price to hold, based on the past 12 months of trading volume, arguably the most important with the highest volume between $20K and $22K. Below this, and lower levels are unlikely to hold imo.
$20k? why not, very important support level and although the price did go down in the last 2 days, we have bounce back and recovered it right away. And so at least the month end at green candle above $20k isn't it?
I guess this is the theory that the more times price bounces off $20K, the stronger the support gets? Personally I see the opposite, the more price bouncing off $20K, the weaker it becomes, because there will be less and less buyers present each time it happens as support is effectively eaten away. More relevantly, in the shorter-term price is making lower highs $20.6K, $20.5K, $20.3K, etc, showing that sellers are selling at lower prices each time. Unless Bitcoin makes a higher high on lower time-frames (or at least equal high), then these sellers will eventually reach $20K, and therefore overpower the current buyers there.
It's true that the month ended above $20K, which I don't find particularly bullish but also not as bearish as it could have been, as it wasn't a new monthly low close, but instead just above June's close. What this suggests is in the very long-term (monthly scale) that yes $20K is still likely to hold. This also means price can wick down to $18K, even $12K, before closing back above $20K however. Hence the long-term can suggest $20K will hold (price closing monthly candles above), it doesn't mean that in the short-term, or even mid-term, it will hold what so ever though. We could spend 3 weeks below and still close back above...
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