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Author Topic: Seriously! three times...the individual vs. combined probability.  (Read 371 times)
pinggoki
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October 02, 2021, 12:54:05 PM
 #41

Odds are low, but not impossible. Would like to suppose you're being subjected to Gambler's Fallacy due to the fact that it sounded as if you assumed there is no chance that such a pattern will come out on your roll. Gambler's Fallacy happens when your heuristics and biases make you assume that there are patterns you can exploit in a game that would guarantee you wins.
Well the real question is: are you really going to argue with the mathematics of probability just because you saw/might have seen a pattern? Sounds dangerously close to the edge of hopeful thinking and superstition to me. Indeed math says that the probability of getting the same 1/37 for 4 times is less than a 50000th or if you prefer percentages: then about 0.002%. I think you should go with the math with this one.
Sad to say the human brain loves patterns, so it wouldn't be able to avoid pining on these things even if its life depended on it. It has helped us survive the deserts of Africa back when we are still hunter-gatherers, nowadays it serves to cost us a lot in situations where randomness is king. But with enough practice and self-discipline anyone could at least turn a blind eye on these flimsy patterns and help the gambler see the situation for what it really is.
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