Poll: Market effect of a MtGox payout.

[kooke]

I thought many of the missing BTC were stolen over time due to 'transaction malleability'. Now some of them have suddenly been found. Someone is obviously lying, and lying is hardly a good sign.

[piramida]

Someone is obviously lying

you noticed too? gox, it seems, started lying somewhen around the time Karpeles got in the office in 2011 and has not stopped since then.

[Twilight_Sparkle]

Price of Iceland’s Auroracoin Falls 50% Against Bitcoin After Airdrop.* Spoiler alert, same thing will happen if gox "airdrops" the coins back to the users.

* In hindsight, this was a great opportunity to short auroracoin. I wonder if there were any easy ways to do so. 

[relm9]

Price of Iceland’s Auroracoin Falls 50% Against Bitcoin After Airdrop.* Spoiler alert, same thing will happen if gox "airdrops" the coins back to the users.

* In hindsight, this was a great opportunity to short auroracoin. I wonder if there were any easy ways to do so. 

quite a different scenario there. Those Auroracoins were given away for free and it is more or less a worthless alt, I'd dump them no question.

I don't think people would be so quick to dump their BTC.

[damiano]

I think there will be some selling (not to much)

[Wilhelm]

There will be a major shift drom gox to other exchanges or cold wallets. This means sideways initially.
After that the people who got their coins back will resume trading on other exchanges making the price go up.
Some people will HODL making the price go up since less coins available.

MtGOX will then shut down for good and Mark goes to jail... and everyone else lives happily ever after

[Twilight_Sparkle]

There will be a major shift drom gox to other exchanges or cold wallets. This means sideways initially.

Sure, a possible scenario.

After that the people who got their coins back will resume trading on other exchanges making the price go up.

How would that make it go up? The only trades you can do with coins is sell for fiat, which makes it go down. Or for alt-coins, which makes the alt-coin go up.

Some people will HODL making the price go up since less coins available.

Mtgox is making everyone HODL their coins, whether they like it or not. If they release the coins, the amount of people HODLing will only go down. EDIT: No matter how you look at it, Mtgox putting coins in the market makes more coins avalible, not less.

[uhoh]

I'd rather never see my coins again if that were the only way to ensure Gox never returns to the scene. With Gox gone for good, my remaining coins are going to be worth more IMO (in the long run).  

Still though, I HATE Mark Karpeles. If I had all my coins there I would be absolutely livid.

If indeed they have the rest of the BTC, IMO unlikely

Best case:
Coins returned, Gox disappears for good.

Likely case:
Gox returns, and fucks us all over again.

[Gotgoxed]

There will be a major shift drom gox to other exchanges or cold wallets. This means sideways initially.

Sure, a possible scenario.

After that the people who got their coins back will resume trading on other exchanges making the price go up.

How would that make it go up? The only trades you can do with coins is sell for fiat, which makes it go down. Or for alt-coins, which makes the alt-coin go up.

Some people will HODL making the price go up since less coins available.

Mtgox is making everyone HODL their coins, whether they like it or not. If they release the coins, the amount of people HODLing will only go down. EDIT: No matter how you look at it, Mtgox putting coins in the market makes more coins avalible, not less.

"the amount of people HODLing will only go down"
For every seller there is a buyer! Plain economics

[Twilight_Sparkle]

"the amount of people HODLing will only go down"
For every seller there is a buyer! Plain economics

HODLing =/= selling(or buying for that matter). When someone takes coins they own out of storage and put them on the market, the amount of people HODLing goes down. When someone leaves the market, and puts coins in storage, the amount of people HODLing goes up. Every coin mtgox controls is a coin in HODling status. If the coins leave their control and returns to the rightful owners then... Every coin that is not stored more or less immediately and is put on the market, is a coin no longer in HODLing status. 100% of goxcoins is in HODLing. If they ever become unfrozen, if even one coin satoshi is put back on the market "the amount of people HODLing will only go down"*. 101% is not possible.

* For all the nit-picky, it is possible that every single Mtgox customer puts the coins in storage, but I'd sooner bet on winning the lottery.