SO MANY BLACK SWANS FOR ONE YEAR

[Lucius]

I clearly know that but, its the first time since the cold war we see one of the two power nations making the step forward.
We always heard about a war can come bla bla but that war never comes, but now yes, the war has begun.

Russia may have been a world superpower on paper, but in practice it turned out that they were far from it - but if I remember correctly, Ukraine was in 20th place in terms of military power, which is far from being called a superpower. If by any chance it were so, then Russia would never attack a country that is stronger or equal to it.

Maybe you are too young, but in the last thirty years, many bloody wars have been fought in the world, and even in the heart of Europe from 1991 onwards, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria - and the difference is that no one cared too much for countries that are not nuclear powers anyway.

For some, the new war in the Balkans might be a "black swan", but the part of Bosnia and Herzegovina under the control of the Serbs has been announcing its annexation to the Republic of Serbia for a long time, and has the support of Russia for that - and for me it's just a question of when that powder keg will explode.

[Silberman]

It can't be the first time things like this are happening all together. This is the first it happens in our generation,  almost like things are going from bad to worse without anyone knowing how it will all end for things to go back normal.
To me I think the biggest is covid-19,  it literally short the world down on a standstill. Russia-Ukraine war does not have such an impact on the entire world like covid-19. It was a time of history. First in my lifetime I see the power house America with deserted busy roads and places.
Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

I think the same, this is probably the very first time in recent memory that we experiment so many negative and impossible to predict events happening all very close to each other, but it is very likely that something like this has already happened before, and this should make us think about where are we headed? Because at least to me it seems that we are getting closer to a complete economic failure, obviously such a thing is not going to happen overnight and it could take a lot of time to materialize, but it seems the final countdown for the fiat system has finally begun.

[Nhazwrath]

Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

I coudn't agree more. No one thought that covid-19 way back 2020 would spread around the world. It ruined many businesses especially those that needs to work onsite. Many people lost their jobs and had to stay home for some months. People like me who are very prone to thd virus can't just go outside anymore unlike before the pandemic. Travelling to other country also became more complicated because of quarantine and vaccine requirements.

  Wait till we get actual killer virus instead of a really bad cold.  The response to that last virus from massive incompetence will pale in comparison.  You should look up some of the more serious virus that humanity has had to deal with. 

This one was where it only really hurt people with underlying conditions.   Wait till we get one that just kills people period like the Spanish flu. (which btw ended without a vaccine)

If we had gotten that covid in the 1950's the response would have been.    Its a bad cold/flu season. 

BTW  a 14 day incubation with no symptoms is Entirely predictable to spread around the entire world.  There's Zero way to stop that without a total lock down, which no one did Or could afford.  The response was to slow it down which is why the pandemic was 2 years long instead of 5 months. 

If Ebola which up until very recently was Very deadly was as easy to catch and had a 14 incubation period with no signs we would lose 70 % of the population.  The only 2 saving factors with Ebola is its fast so people die before they can spread it much and it doesn't transmit anywhere as easily.


Oh and if you think that the vaccines shut down the covid you'd be wrong.   Due to the rapid mutation rate of said virus the vaccines were fighting a rear action the entire time.  By the time you had the newest vaccine the virus had already mutated to another variety of covid so it was less effective rapidly over time thus the never ending boosters.  Did the vaccine help?  Yes it probable saved quite a few lives but on the large scale society functionality I think it hurt more then it helped mostly due to how it was shoved at everyone.   The Ends almost never justify the Means.   This could have been handled far far better.

What ended the pandemic is the same way most large scale pandemics end.  The virus mutated into a form that was highly transmissible and very benign (omicron) this basically out-competed the other variants of the virus.   

In effect humanity did nothing but stab itself with a fairly untested vaccine (btw theres no good way to long term test any vaccine other then to use it)

Oh and I, and many others predicted that entire outcome with some mild variations.   

No I'm Not god no I'm not patting myself on the back.  My point here is  Lots of things like this are very predictable you Just have to study more history and read more books on well.   Everything.

Most people think the news is education.   News is mostly telling you what they want you to do(right or wrong). 

That's not education that's simply a compliance channel

[kro55]

but it seems the final countdown for the fiat system has finally begun.

You mean fiat is dying as a result of the current economic crisis, and the fiat system will in turn be replaced by decentralized crypto dominance in the future. Today, most of the currencies of the countries are seriously depreciating but looking at the USD, it is still standing there and even the highest in the past 20 years. I don't think USD will die even though I thought BTC or another cryptocurrency would replace them, but it never will. As long as American domination is gone, we have every right to think about it. If there is any cryptocurrency to replace fiat it is also CBDC, which is also a government controlled currency, no different from fiat.

[coolcoinz]

This develop another Black Swan, the huge jump in Energy cost.

This one trigger another one, the Inflation rises.

You're wrong here. The war in Ukraine or the energy prices did not cause inflation, covid did, or rather the way covid was handled in many countries.
What they should've done is simply distribute vaccines, introduce the procedures like gaps in lines, disinfectants, cashless payments, but they made a mistake and locked people in their homes, restricted travels, shut down hotels and restaurants. This stupidity pushed business owners to the edge of bankruptcy, so the idea of the governments was to shower them with money, but how to get money if people aren't spending because they're locked in their homes? Print it!

So, the main reasons for inflation are money printing and increased spending when people got out of lockdowns. High inflation is not a black swan event.

[Bitstar_coin]

Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

I coudn't agree more. No one thought that covid-19 way back 2020 would spread around the world. It ruined many businesses especially those that needs to work onsite. Many people lost their jobs and had to stay home for some months. People like me who are very prone to thd virus can't just go outside anymore unlike before the pandemic. Travelling to other country also became more complicated because of quarantine and vaccine requirements.

Indeed Covid-19 can be classified as a black swan because it wasn't predicted unlike other scenarios. The world hasn't really recovered from the impact of the virus, both economic, political and social.  Never in my years of existence have I witnessed such a situation, am not sure what happened in WWI and WW11 since I wasn't born yet, but with covid-19 emergence, the world witnessed a difficult time in human history, the whole world was literally shot down, it was a frightening period. 
This Russian-Ukraine war now added to the already very fragile global economy. Honestly, these are terrible times we live in, hopefully, there will be some form of relief at some point.

[monineklutak]

Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

I coudn't agree more. No one thought that covid-19 way back 2020 would spread around the world. It ruined many businesses especially those that needs to work onsite. Many people lost their jobs and had to stay home for some months. People like me who are very prone to thd virus can't just go outside anymore unlike before the pandemic. Travelling to other country also became more complicated because of quarantine and vaccine requirements.

The spread of Covid 19 was also so fast that it paralyzed many businesses,
conditions at that time were really difficult especially those who lost their jobs,
like it or not the country must do that to prevent the spread

[blue_hurricanger]

Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

I coudn't agree more. No one thought that covid-19 way back 2020 would spread around the world. It ruined many businesses especially those that needs to work onsite. Many people lost their jobs and had to stay home for some months. People like me who are very prone to thd virus can't just go outside anymore unlike before the pandemic. Travelling to other country also became more complicated because of quarantine and vaccine requirements.

Indeed Covid-19 can be classified as a black swan because it wasn't predicted unlike other scenarios. The world hasn't really recovered from the impact of the virus, both economic, political and social.  Never in my years of existence have I witnessed such a situation, am not sure what happened in WWI and WW11 since I wasn't born yet, but with covid-19 emergence, the world witnessed a difficult time in human history, the whole world was literally shot down, it was a frightening period. 
This Russian-Ukraine war now added to the already very fragile global economy. Honestly, these are terrible times we live in, hopefully, there will be some form of relief at some point.

It seems to me that covid has reminded people of how fragile we're again both in terms of global and isolated. That it would also mean some county are more resistant to the downturn of the economy. Enough for them to start pushing their agenda ahead of the needs of their people, ahead of the needs of thriving, doing business. This causes war and such for the gains of a few. Yes, I meant the Russia-Ukraine war might just happen because covid show Russia could possibly stand on their own against the US and nearly the whole world's sanction. With this trend, we might see more black swans and I think I understand why some worry China might pull the same thing with Taiwan, similar to the Russia-Ukraine war.

[Swordsoffreedom]

It can't be the first time things like this are happening all together. This is the first it happens in our generation,  almost like things are going from bad to worse without anyone knowing how it will all end for things to go back normal.
To me I think the biggest is covid-19,  it literally short the world down on a standstill. Russia-Ukraine war does not have such an impact on the entire world like covid-19. It was a time of history. First in my lifetime I see the power house America with deserted busy roads and places.
Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

Russia-Ukraine war affects us too,let me share what happen to country, I came from a third world country most of the people here doesn't have a job and living in the street with no food in their plates, covid-19 hits us very very hard to the point that many people stop living and they made a shortcut , with Russia-Ukraine war start our fuel starts to pump twice many drivers loses their jobs, I just hope that we will not be like SriLanka regarding with their debt, I can't afford the next Black Swan I hope we can adjust to inflation and there will be no black swan.

It can be said that the war between Russia and Ukraine has not caused as much impact as what covid has caused us (human and economic losses). But when covid is not completely over, war happens, this is nothing more than a punch to a world that has suffered from irreversible wounds caused by covid. It can be said that the war between Russia and Ukraine is a serious issue that needs to be resolved now. In my country, a country that mainly exports, in addition to inflation, unemployment is rampant because goods cannot be exported because world consumer demand is slowing down. Many families fall into a deadlock situation when there is no income, everything was really bad.

[NeuroticFish]

It can be said that the war between Russia and Ukraine has not caused as much impact as what covid has caused us (human and economic losses).

COVID should no longer produce significant loses.

On the other hand, the loses caused by the energy war (derived from the Russia vs Ukraine war) may be still in a rather early phase and we will see after many more months how long is this going to go (I expect years to adjust infrastructure and prices) and how many companies will have to close doors at least for the winter.

I expect the war's full impact, especially as coming after COVID, will be exponentially bigger.

[_BlackStar]

So what can be the next black swan?

If the black swan you're mean to is something that's hard to guess, then obviously we don't know for sure what it is. I remember several major events over the past year that could be considered a black swan and that was Elon Musk announcing that he was no longer adopting bitcoin for Tesla, and most recently the Luna fiasco. There are other FUD, but not as bad as the two above.

To be honest, I don't expect there to be many black swans in the years to come. FUD will always show up, but I don't believe it will make bitcoin drop below $10K. Yes, I was expecting some price drops because I thought it was a good idea to buy bitcoin at a lower price. However, there is no denying that this market will probably recover before the end of the year.

[jostorres]

Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

I coudn't agree more. No one thought that covid-19 way back 2020 would spread around the world. It ruined many businesses especially those that needs to work onsite. Many people lost their jobs and had to stay home for some months. People like me who are very prone to thd virus can't just go outside anymore unlike before the pandemic. Travelling to other country also became more complicated because of quarantine and vaccine requirements.

That's because we think it's only a simple flu but the world began to worry when the virus spread like a wildfire in China. The reason why it spread in other countries is because there are travellers who seem to be hard headed and won't follow the safety protocols given by the government.

It ruined lots of business but at the same time it gave people a new hope because they find a new career that are much better than what they had before and those are mostly online and related to cryptocurrencies and the blockchain. Fortunately, the effect of the covid is now hardly felt and people are starting to live normal again. I wonder why the op didn't include this in the first page?

[NotATether]

Luna UST and CeFi lending platforms collapse was yet another black swan which directly caused the anvil drop on crypto prices. It was not the Ukraine war which triggered this selloff because it did only a minimal correction to the price back then.