Analyzing Holdings By Entity Size

[ImThour]

Black Line - BTC Price
Purple Line - BTC Supply Held by Entities with Balance 0.1-1
Pink Line - 90 Days Change

2014: Pink Line hits a new ATH, bitcoin price drops 77%.
2018: Pink Line hits a new ATH, bitcoin price drops 84%.
2022: Pink Line hits a new ATH, bitcoin is already 66% down from ATH.


https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1550132206131064835

[adaseb]

Investing observation. I don’t think I’ve seen this one before. However if you zoom in you will see it’s not always accurate.

If you relied on the indicator whenever it hit a new ATH you would sell too early. You can see a few times it spikes while price still kept going up afterwards.

[dragonvslinux]

I gave you +1 as it's an interesting chart, but I don't really understand it to be honest. It looks very bearish, but unless we're about to have a 75-85% drop then I don't see the relevance  

I think this must somehow be more bullish than bearish, as I don't see price falling to $3.5K to $5.5K. There has also been big spikes late 2016 and 2020 that were bullish, even if not ATHs.

[NeuroticFish]

Purple Line - BTC Supply Held by Entities with Balance 0.1-1

Since one entity can have multiple addresses of multiple sizes, I don't know if any chart (or any conclusion) based on balance sizes can be accurate.
So, sorry, but I find this yet another attempt to find correlations.

[adaseb]

From what I understand. 0.1 to 1.0 is generally the retail market. And whenever this peaks it means that lots of retail have bought Bitcoin, meaning it will top soon. Which it has shown in the graphs.

The issue I find with this is that 1 BTC back in 2014 is different than back in 2021. Since in 2014 when it peaked it was $1000 while in 2021 it was over 69x that pretty much. The value of these bitcoins compared to fiat are much different.

[OgNasty]

Purple Line - BTC Supply Held by Entities with Balance 0.1-1

Since one entity can have multiple addresses of multiple sizes, I don't know if any chart (or any conclusion) based on balance sizes can be accurate.
So, sorry, but I find this yet another attempt to find correlations.

It could be the result of an exchange breaking down their balances or something similar.  Hard to say for me, as I don't waste time worrying about what others are doing with their coins.  I have seen this statistic touted many times recently though, as the chart is astounding.  However, I think if it were the result of a major entity distributing their coins across multiple addresses for whatever reason, some chain wizard would have likely identified this and made it known that's what is happening.  So I have no reason to doubt that it's legitimate growth of the userbase.