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September 13, 2022, 10:39:57 AM
 #1

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On Wednesday, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales were flat in July, showing that inflation is affecting American spending. Consumer spending drives more than two-thirds of GDP, offering important insight into the state of the economy and the likelihood of a recession.

Here are some less-intuitive markers, from lipstick sales to swipes on dating apps, that might qualify as economic tea leaves:

Lipstick

The theory was born during the 2001 recession, when Estée Lauder heir and chairman Leonard Lauder noticed that lipstick sales had still managed to climb. The same was true even from 1929 to 1933, during the Great Depression. The phenomenon known as the “lipstick index,” in which purchases of cosmetics are inversely correlated with the health of the economy, remains true today. According to Natalia Bambiza, an analyst for NPD, sales for lip makeup spiked 48 percent in the first quarter of 2022 year over year.

Men’s underwear

In 2008, as the nation spiraled into the Great Recession, the head of the Federal Reserve at the time pointed to one product seen as a good economic omen: men’s underwear. Alan Greenspan told an NPR reporter that men tend to forgo buying new underpants during a recession because it’s less obvious to others when it’s time for a new pair. “You need clothes on the outside,” the reporter recalled Greenspan saying.

Romance

As the markets fell in 2009, the website Match.com posted its strongest fourth-quarter earnings in seven years. During the pandemic, Bumble and Tinder both soared as singles flocked to the apps while they were stuck at home. “People still need love and relationships in recession — and you can argue they need it more,” Lauren Schenk, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said on a podcast.

Frozen pizza and mac and cheese

When money is tight and eating out is not an option, consumers tend to be strategic about how they spend in grocery stores. They often skip the fresh-food aisles and go straight to the freezer section. Kraft saw sales rise in 2009 as more people bought DiGiorno and opted for boxed macaroni and cheese. A similar trend is happening now — inflation is driving consumers to store-brand items to shave off a few dollars.

Champagne

When money is tight and layoffs are prolific, consumers generally aren’t in the mood to pop a bottle of Dom Pérignon. In a 2011 survey, NPR’s Planet Money found that economic indicators derived from sales of the French beverage in the United States were 90 percent accurate. Sales went up in 1999 during the internet bubble and again in 2007 during the housing bubble, and most recently in 2021.





Obviously, there are more substantive predictors of a recession, such as unemployment, spending and wage data. And the U.S. economy already has contracted in two consecutive quarters, another typical sign. That said, maybe think twice before buying that lipstick.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/photography/interactive/2022/how-lipstick-underwear-can-predict-economy/


....


Here we have an interesting list of historical indicators to forecast future economic trends. Modern forecasts tend to involve more empirical and high tech methods. Such as using satellite photographs to estimate the number of vehicles sold off car lots. Or to estimate shopper traffic at major retail brands. Is it possible that these historical indirect indicators still apply today?

Do we have a similar list of indirect indicators which could forecast future crypto market trends?

It is known that younger generations have achieved a far higher degree of crypto market participation and mass adoption, in contrast to older generations. Perhaps there are indirect trends for that age group which directly correlate to future crypto buying and selling predictions? Seasons with weak video game rollouts, might see elevated crypto purchasing. A significant span of time with no new iphone or android products might also see elevated crypto purchasing volume.

What do younger generations spend their disposable income on. And how can it tie in to future crypto price fluctuations.
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September 13, 2022, 03:28:37 PM
 #2

To sum it up, these things which are less important than food could determine the 'class' of an economy of a country  Simply because if people could afford things related to aesthetics and such, ofcourse they could afford daily necessities more unlike with those countries wherein both food, shelter, and clothing are difficult to consume for people because they are simply lacking. A boost on the sales of these, what I like to call, 'secondary needs' or simply things people would still be alive without those, can really reflect to the state of monetary status of a country or area to be more specific.

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September 13, 2022, 03:33:10 PM
 #3

Modern forecasts tend to involve more empirical and high tech methods. Such as using satellite photographs to estimate the number of vehicles sold off car lots. Or to estimate shopper traffic at major retail brands. Is it possible that these historical indirect indicators still apply today?
Interesting, I've never heard of those methods being used to measure economic activity.  And if you think about it, analyzing satellite photographs of used car lots instead of whatever data is publicly available about said sales seems like an unnecessarily difficult method.  Why go the high-tech route when there's probably an easier way?

Seasons with weak video game rollouts, might see elevated crypto purchasing. A significant span of time with no new iphone or android products might also see elevated crypto purchasing volume.
I'm not sure how you're making connections between buying crypto vs. buying video games or phones, but even if there was a correlation (which I doubt), I don't think there's going to be any extended periods of time where new games or phones are released.  Those industries are enormous, constantly pumping out new products.

I've heard of the Ramen noodle index and was going to include a link, but for some reason I can't find anything except a Reddit discussion.  The theory is that you know the economy is hitting a rough spot when Ramen sales increase, as it's a very cheap food.  Anyway, it's not surprising that things like lipstick and all that other stuff are also economic markers.

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September 13, 2022, 04:03:14 PM
 #4

It is known that younger generations have achieved a far higher degree of crypto market participation and mass adoption, in contrast to older generations. Perhaps there are indirect trends for that age group which directly correlate to future crypto buying and selling predictions? Seasons with weak video game rollouts, might see elevated crypto purchasing. A significant span of time with no new iphone or android products might also see elevated crypto purchasing volume.

What do younger generations spend their disposable income on. And how can it tie in to future crypto price fluctuations.

Young people also spend their disposable income in purchase of recreational drugs for themselves and their peers, a decline in the purchase of recreational drugs in young people can also signal a better usage of their disposable income, which is an elevated crypto purchasing volume.

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September 13, 2022, 06:24:19 PM
 #5

lol, this sounds so bizarre, who would have thought such can be use to measure the rate of inflation? Men will rather forgo buying a new pair of underpants for groceries, a huge sacrifice that is.
And why will lipstick have a 48% spike in sales during times of inflation? shouldn't it be the other way around just like for men forgoing the purchase of new underpants? Women worry more about their looks than feeding, this is how I comprehend it, except am reading differently.  Cheesy


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September 14, 2022, 07:05:48 PM
Last edit: May 20, 2023, 07:29:30 PM by stompix
 #6

When I read the title I instantly thought of :



But yeah, I don't see what the surprise is, consumption is an indicator of how much people have to spend and that's an indicator of their wealth, simple as this, during uncertain times it's obvious you won't see the same spending as during economic booms, just like there was no rush for air travel after 9/11 and no demand for 6.5 V8 engines in the late 70s.

I've heard of the Ramen noodle index and was going to include a link, but for some reason I can't find anything except a Reddit discussion.  The theory is that you know the economy is hitting a rough spot when Ramen sales increase, as it's a very cheap food. 

Maybe it's Mama Noodles?
https://www.nationthailand.com/lifestyle/40019965

I heard about it because there were two news about basic cheap foods increasing first time in years
Thailand approved the first rise for noodles in 14 years and the Japanese Umaibo snack rising in price for the first time in nearly half a decade.


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September 14, 2022, 07:59:35 PM
 #7

To sum it up, these things which are less important than food could determine the 'class' of an economy of a country  Simply because if people could afford things related to aesthetics and such, ofcourse they could afford daily necessities more unlike with those countries wherein both food, shelter, and clothing are difficult to consume for people because they are simply lacking. A boost on the sales of these, what I like to call, 'secondary needs' or simply things people would still be alive without those, can really reflect to the state of monetary status of a country or area to be more specific.

Well just as you called them secondary needs I don't think much attention is been giving to these as expected but of no doubt, it impact could in a little way make difference in determining the standard of the progressive economy of a particular country, but also this has nothing to do with either a country being developed or not as cosmetics are being used regardless of geographical location of the people, also this can be use to boost the economy as well in a unique way to aid the stimulation for it utilization when produce regardless of product in an economy.



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September 15, 2022, 03:32:59 AM
 #8

I'm surprised they didn't include booze and cigarettes, which are basically recession proof.  However, these are also good predictors/indicators as when the economy is tanking, sales for these increase, perhaps due to stress and to take one's mind off the financial predicament.   
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September 15, 2022, 03:42:34 AM
 #9

lol, this sounds so bizarre, who would have thought such can be use to measure the rate of inflation? Men will rather forgo buying a new pair of underpants for groceries, a huge sacrifice that is.
And why will lipstick have a 48% spike in sales during times of inflation? shouldn't it be the other way around just like for men forgoing the purchase of new underpants? Women worry more about their looks than feeding, this is how I comprehend it, except am reading differently.  Cheesy

If I'm going to guess, the logic is pretty much the same with financially illiterate people buying expensive designer clothing even though they don't have much money. They'd rather be perceived as people that are doing really well in life, rather than them actually truly doing well financially.

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