Bitcointalk has been working in Russia through VPN for a long time, but I don't have much difficulty with blocking. Some pools blocked Russian IPs, but they didn't stop working with Russian miners. I think that at the end of the year mining statistics will change a lot in favor of Russia.
And when you access Bitcointalk through a VPN how does that look in statistics? Russian IP or German whatever?
Rather than risk your data not reaching other nodes that fast because of troubles afterward and over which you have no control, you'll switch to having all of it virtually in another country from which on there is no blocking. That's what happening and it has nothing to do with the real activity on the ground, that's also the reason that probably it will take the actual hash rate deployed to double to see even a bump in statistics that rely on IPs.
What you would also need to consider that New York and Texas beginn to regulate or even ban crypto mining in large quantities.
Banning new farms with over x capacity yes, ban on already running farms that have not happened and probably will never. Besides, those bans were in a place where already the grid was maxed, so despite them getting approval to relocate there was already no cheap energy left.
