Changing political situation in the Middle East

This article was published on May 28, 1997 in the Israeli newspaper Our Country. Since then a lot has happened. It should be noted that after the right-wing killed the Israeli prime minister, who was close to reconciliation with the Arabs, the peace process essentially did not move one iota. As I foresaw, very warm relations have developed with Turkey, at the level of strategic partners. However, Israel's unwillingness to leave the occupied territories made Turkey face the choice of either continuing to be an ally of Israel and falling into international isolation with it, due to the latter's aggressive policy towards the Arabs, or to remain true to the principles of democracy and support the just aspiration of the Palestinians to find their own state. It must be said that Turkey made quite a lot of efforts to persuade Israel to complete the peace process, but the right-wing politicians of Israel destroyed allied relations with Turkey, completing the gap with the Mavi Marmara incident. And against the backdrop of the “Arab spring”, Turkey has no reason at all to be in a confrontation with the Arabs because of Israel. Big changes, as I foresaw, have taken place in terms of the economy. An oil pipeline to Turkey has been built, which finally gave Azerbaijan the opportunity to use black gold for its people. Israel buys oil from Azerbaijan. In addition, Israel and Azerbaijan, due to their common enemy in the face of Iran, have developed close strategic relations. There is also a return to Israel's former ties with Turkey, ties that are undoubtedly beneficial for both countries. Otherwise, everything covered in an article written 26 years ago has remained unchanged.

Alik Bakhshi

Changing political situation in the Middle East

Recently, visits of political and military figures from Turkey to Israel and vice versa have become more frequent, even a purely commercial agreement has been concluded - the supply of technical equipment for Turkish combat aircraft, but in fact, these two countries are irresistibly drawn to each other. In the future, without a doubt, Israel and Turkey will become allies, and there are objective strategic, economic and historical prerequisites for such a prospect.
It is also important that America is interested in such an alliance, a country whose influence in the Middle East is steadily growing and which would gladly transfer to Turkey a significant part of its allied obligations towards Israel, so as not to interfere with the growing American-Arab ties. Firstly, Turkey is a member of NATO, and secondly, it has a bilateral military agreement with America.
There is an economic rivalry in the World between the United States, a united Europe and Japan, and one does not need to have special foresight to see that the Arab World for America is not only oil resources, but also a huge market for investment and sales of products.

After the Gulf War, the oil-producing countries of the Middle East realized that the power of America is the guarantor of their security. By the way, Egypt owes the integrity of its territory not to the Soviet Union, but to the very same America, which forced the Israeli troops to remain on the eastern bank of the Suez Canal and insisted on the return of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt. It must be understood that not only Israel is to blame for the conflict between America and the Arabs, but also the former Soviet Union, which tried to bring the Arab countries into its sphere of influence and, following its strategic plan, strangle the West with energy hunger, depriving it of Middle Eastern oil.

Israel has always been a political trump card for its patrons. In the early years of Israel's formation, the Soviet Union and France supplied him with weapons to spite the British. When England finally left the Middle East, withdrawing its last contingent from the Persian Gulf, Moscow sent its tentacles into the resulting vacuum. During the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Soviet Union, as a friend of the Arabs (oil), sparing no expense, supplied them with weapons. The commanding officers of the Arab armies were trained in the Soviet military academies, and hundreds of Soviet military specialists, under the guise of civil engineers, helped the Arabs master military equipment.
It was then that the real threat to Israel arose. But America joined the battle for oil, using Israel as the only possible political and military outpost in the Middle East region. Of course, Israel also needed such an alliance in order to survive surrounded by numerous enemies. The Kremlin's plans were not destined to come true, the Jews, with the help of American weapons, utterly defeated the Arabs and defended the right to life.

It is not difficult to imagine what would happen to the West if the opposite happened. Thus, logically, Israel owes its existence to the struggle of the superpowers for the Middle East.

The military victories of the Israelis greatly weakened the positions of the Russians. Egypt became so disillusioned with them that it completely stopped all cooperation with Moscow, and after the Camp David agreements even began to receive military and financial assistance from America.

Ignoring the laws of the free market led to the collapse of the socialist system and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the last colonial power. Words of truth literally in an instant, like a powerful shock during an earthquake, destroyed this evil empire, based on strength and lies. And global political changes - the formation of numerous new states in Europe and Asia - could not but affect the Middle East.
The failed aggression of Saddam Hussein against Kuwait showed who is the master of the political situation in this region. Moscow betrayed the Iraqi dictator, and no one paid any attention to the verbal condemnations of the bombing of Baghdad. If Saddam Hussein had captured Kuwait during the time of "developed socialism", then the world could have been on the verge of World War III.
The anti-Iraqi coalition with the participation of Arab countries created by the United States is a great success for American diplomacy. Saddam's attempts to destroy it with provocative rocket attacks on Israel were unsuccessful. For the first time in the entire existence of Israel, there was no retaliatory military action (America asked for this for the sake of the integrity of the coalition).
Then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir followed Washington's advice and demand that an Israeli delegation attend the Madrid Peace Conference. As a matter of fact, the Middle East peace process began with it.

After the elimination of the direct threat of Moscow's penetration into the oil resources of the Middle East, America is interested in peace and stability in this region. It will also reduce US taxpayer spending on military and economic aid to Israel.
What does it take for America to live in peace? First of all, to solve the Palestinian problem and nothing else than to create the state of Palestine, the capital of which, of course, will be East Jerusalem. The old city, within the boundaries of which there are shrines of three religions, should probably receive a status similar to that of the Vatican. Under American pressure, Israel will have to give up the Golan in exchange for peace with Syria, just as the return of the Sinai became a guarantee of peace with Egypt. And if in reality this happens, then this will knock out the propaganda trump card from the hands of the Muslim fundamentalists of Iran and the dictators of Libya and Iraq: they will stop scaring America as the enemy of all Muslims.

Needless to say, such a prospect offends the patriotic feelings of the Israeli right, but one has to reckon with the fact that America no longer has a reason to be in a confrontation with the Arabs.
Politics is pragmatic, there is no place for sentimentality in it, it can use people's feelings to achieve its goals, but nothing more. It should not be deceived that America has some kind of special disinterested love for Israel, making gifts of billions of dollars, supplying the most modern weapons. Moreover, this love looks one-sided, because the Israeli right hates America, instinctively realizing that all their plans depend entirely on Washington. Let us recall what a surge of hatred and ridicule caused by Baker's visits to Israel. Perhaps the same awaits Mrs. Albright and Denis Ross.

The utopian dream of the far right today is the independent politics of a militarily strong Israel. But, alas, without a powerful ally, Israel, as a country that is not self-sufficient, will not last long alone, despite the presence of atomic weapons. By the way, there is no guarantee that the enemy, who also possesses large material and human resources, will not receive atomic weapons.
Suppose America refuses any mediation between Jews and Arabs: sort it out among yourselves.” And the war will not keep you waiting long. Israel will burn Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Tripoli, possibly Cairo in a nuclear fire, having spent all its small nuclear arsenal, after which it will find itself in complete political and economic isolation. Not only armaments, but also oil and even kosher beef will be purchased from no one, and there will be nothing, and radioactive rain will fall instead of manna from heaven. And it does not take a rich imagination to understand how, in a short period of time, hordes of Muslim fanatics will literally sweep Israel off the face of the earth. The only question is, will there be a place in Noah's ark for Moroccan, Russian and Ethiopian Jews, and where is that Mount Ararat?
Jews with American citizenship will probably take care of themselves in advance.
Of course, this is only a figment of the imagination, this is unlikely to happen. America has spent too much effort and money on our region to leave events uncontrolled. Of no small importance is the fact that, as shown by the last election of the prime minister, almost half of the population of Israel supports the slogan "territories in exchange for peace." And if not under the current government, then under the next one, but there will be peace with the Arabs, it’s only a pity that the rightists don’t want to understand this and torpedo the peace process with various provocations: the opening of the Hasmonean tunnel, construction on Har Homa.

The times of slavery and colonialism, when it was possible to get rich at the expense of others, have sunk into oblivion. Today, the well-being of the country can be achieved only by the development of its own economy.
Japan tried to conquer the Pacific countries and, as you know, it ended very sadly for her. But the country, lying in ruins, incinerated by a nuclear fire, in a relatively short period of time has risen in terms of living standards to the same level as the victorious country. And now hundreds of thousands of people in China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, Singapore and even in America itself work in Japanese factories. The same can be said about Germany. Here is an example to follow. Everything is extremely simple here. Success requires peace and the will to work.
You can't build a country with someone else's hands! Israel must prepare in advance for the reduction of American aid, for which it is necessary to eliminate the monopoly of the state sector in the economy, remove all artificial restrictions on private business, including religious ones, privatize the land fund and, finally, give the Israeli people the long-promised constitution, one of paragraphs of which will proclaim the separation of religion from the state. Otherwise, we will have many bright stars like Yair Levy and Aryeh Deri. God forbid that politicking rabbis come to power, because in this case they will talk to us on behalf of God, and it’s good if it doesn’t come to the Inquisition and crucifixions. Another striking example of this is today's Iran: politicians from religion in an instant threw the country back into the era of medieval obscurantism. On the way to the same was Algeria, but there, fortunately, they came to their senses in time.

Democratic transformations, availability of a highly skilled workforce, favorable geographical location, peace with neighbors, these are the necessary and quite affordable conditions that will make Israel attractive for investment. Why shouldn't Israel become the shining star of the Middle East, like Singapore and Hong Kong, the stars of the Far East.

A peace treaty between the Arabs will be the result of a change in the political situation in the region. But given that America will take a neutral stance, the question arises of a real assistant to Israel for an active political and economic outlook for the future.
There is no doubt that at the present time it is not profitable for America to be an obvious ally of Israel in the eyes of the Arabs. But, on the other hand, America cannot afford to refuse political and military cooperation because of the great potential for destabilizing the political situation in the Middle East. The best option for Washington is to continue the alliance with Israel through a political intermediary. Turkey is an ideal country as an ally of Israel and the mentioned mediator.
Israel and Turkey, despite their seeming incompatibility at first glance, have a lot in common. Both countries are in a similar political situation and even have common enemies, both are interested in mutual support.
Turkey, like Israel, is surrounded by unfriendly neighbors. Relations between Turkey and Greece are very tense, due to the unresolved issue of Cyprus. The situation is no better with Bulgaria, which carried out the transfer of ethnic Turks. There is also Russia, from which the greatest threat came, both for Turkey and for Israel. But even today, it is Russia that sells weapons to Iran and builds a nuclear reactor there, which the religious regime undoubtedly needs only to create nuclear weapons, because a country rich in natural energy resources - oil and gas - hardly needs nuclear energy.
The history of Russia is the history of a centuries-old confrontation with the Turks: the Khazar raids, the invasion of Batu, the raids of the Crimean Tatars, the conquest of the Astrakhan and Kazan khanates by the Russians, the conquest of Siberia. With the fall of the fortresses of Azov and Izmail, Turkey finally loses all possessions on the northern coast of the Black Sea, then Russia expands with the colonization of the Caucasus and Turkestan. During World War I, Russia's goal was to capture the Bosphorus, and Russian troops advanced as far as Kars. During World War II, Turkey was saved from the invasion of Soviet troops, like their invasion of Iranian Azerbaijan, only by a hasty declaration of war on Germany and subsequent membership in NATO.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey began to show cautious political activity in all the Turkic republics of the former Russian empire. Drawn by the idea of pan-Turkism, Turkey is putting together a block of countries covering the vast territory of the Turkic ethnic group, figuratively speaking from the Angara to the Angara, two rivers of the same name, one located in Turkey, and the other in distant Siberia.
Naturally, the Turkic republics that are now part of Russia will also gravitate towards such a large association on a national basis - these are Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Tuva, Khakassia and even Yakutia. Turkey provided political support to Chechnya in its war for independence, and it must be assumed that the Chechen war is only the beginning of the struggle for freedom in the North Caucasus.

The possibility of reviving Turkic cooperation on such a vast territory is changing the strategic situation in Asia.
Russia, no doubt, fears for its Turkic-speaking underbelly and is taking preventive measures to prevent the emergence of a monolithic bloc of Turkic countries in the very center of the Asian continent. To this end, Moscow supplies weapons to Armenia and Iran in large quantities, and the axis of these countries, passing through the territory of Azerbaijan, has actually already been created.

The most vulnerable spot for the Turkic bloc is the lack of continuous territorial integrity between the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan, which has a narrow border with Turkey, and Azerbaijan itself. Strategically, this situation worsened after the occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territory by Armenia during the Karabakh war.
Iran fears for part of its territory inhabited by Azerbaijanis, the so-called South Azerbaijan with the city of Tabriz, which was separated from North Azerbaijan as a result of Russian conquests in the Caucasus. It is important to note that the number of Azerbaijanis living in the southern Iranian part is greater than in the northern part.

Thus, Russia, Armenia and Iran are united by a common strategic goal: to prevent the possible reunification of Azerbaijan and thereby prevent the territorial unity of Timur's grandiose legacy.

In addition, there will be a major political fuss over the Caspian oil, which Russia lost with the collapse of the empire. Moscow from time to time speculates about some unclear status of the Caspian Sea and is already showing dissatisfaction with the fact that Azerbaijan is producing oil in the Caspian, insisting at the same time on the option of transporting this oil not to Turkey, but to the Black Sea coast of Russia, which today day is not feasible, due to political instability in Chechnya and Dagestan, through which the oil pipeline passes.
According to forecasts, the oil and gas reserves of the Caspian basin are not inferior to those of the Persian Gulf countries, and with the completion of the oil pipeline to Turkey, a sharp jump in the economic development of the countries of the Caspian region is expected.
Baku will become a transshipment hub for the transportation of oil from Mangyshlak and Turkmenistan, and possibly Chechen oil, if, of course, it achieves independence.
Geographically, Caspian oil and gas is more accessible to the Mediterranean countries from Turkey than from Russia, and in this case it is more profitable for Israel to buy oil nearby, rather than transport it from distant Mexico.

The emergence of a powerful oil competitor on the world market certainly does not delight the neighbors of Iran and Iraq, who traditionally export oil. Turkey has already strained relations with Iraq, because it was from Turkish bases that American planes launched during the Gulf War.

So it turns out that Turkey, like Israel, is politically alone in the Middle East and, despite the fact that it is a Muslim country, albeit with a small but significant amendment, religion is separated from the state in it - the best strategic partner in the region for Israel is not find. Of all Muslim countries, Turkey is the most loyal to Israel, and to Jews in general. Recall that it was Turkey that received the expelled Spanish Jews five hundred years ago. It should be taken into account that Israel's relations with the Turkic countries of the former Soviet Union are also developing very warm.
In the event that Israel and Turkey become allies, Israel has the prospect of great economic and political opportunities in a vast territory rich in natural resources. In exchange, Israel can supply products of its military industry, artificial irrigation technology, and so on.
In terms of political intrigue, Israel will be able to put pressure on Russia, for example, by supporting Chechnya, as opposed to selling Russian weapons to Iran and the Arabs, or even on Iran, by promoting the idea of unification of Azerbaijan.
An important political consequence of such an alliance is that a number of Muslim states of the Caucasus, Asia Minor and Central Asia will fall out of the general orbit of the anti-Israeli policy of the countries of Islam.

May 28, 1997.