this pump is because of russia?

[Ludmilla_rose1995]

it will not have a significant impact on the crypto market globally because the Russian market is not that big compared to the American, Indian or other countries. especially in Russia, there is not only Binance, there are still Kraken, Bybit, and Bittrex, which is too much to say that Binance is the cause of this pump.

[jossiel]

Well, no one has the accurate answer why we've got the pump. And when the price corrected, we also don't have any idea why it had happened.

Well, it's not exactly like that. We can speak in terms of probabilities, since correlation does not imply causation but neither does it preclude it. In this case, it is difficult to know and a priori it does not seem that the return of Binance to Russia is determinant for the pump, but there have been other cases, such as when mining was banned in China, where there was a price drop and we can assume that with great probability it was caused by it.

Yes, that example you've given did really had an impact to the market before. Maybe yes, this could be the one of the reasons of the pump that we've got.

But then, it's not that accurate at all or I think it's better to say that it can also be the one since the market is still affected whenever some good or bad news has come.

[Sir Legend]

It is difficult to say that the current pump is due to Russian influence, as we know that the development of bitcoin users is increasing rapidly and in Africa there has been an increase of up to thousands of percent since 2021 so the pump is due to a significant increase in the number of users.

[STT]

Its never just one thing, if one section was buying then another is selling those orders anyway.  It has to be a general trend to really turn the price, very roughly BTC has been following sentiment also expressed in the stock market or similar general finance trading.   Less worse is the general mood in banking and finance recently after there was some scare of weakness of a bank possible mismanagement.  Not that should have alot to do with crypto but it alters trading overall for fear of a deflationary event, speculators avoid trades etc. and its enough to turn the price.
  Russia is already trading its oil so far as I know, India and China having no national oil source has been too much of a reason to continue to supply Russia with capital; if it really were all or nothing type news in cash flows I'd take more notice of its effect.

[zezaiement]

It is difficult to say that the current pump is due to Russian influence, as we know that the development of bitcoin users is increasing rapidly and in Africa there has been an increase of up to thousands of percent since 2021 so the pump is due to a significant increase in the number of users.

It is also possible that the pump is being driven by speculative activity, where investors are buying Bitcoin in anticipation of future price increases, rather than actual adoption or usage of the technology, or returning back to Russia. It's best to exercise caution when attempting to attribute market movements to any one specific factor, especially without concrete evidence.

[MainIbem]

If actually the information is authentic then there could be positive impact on the market which would caused another strong buy in the bitcoin market but however, i believe they have been secretly using p2p services as my country does so in other way round there may not be that impact on market.

"Bitcoin pumped because Russia did this"
"Bitcoin dumped because China did this"
"Bitcoin dumped because US did this"

Usually there is no government in control of the market or nation rather but their little efforts and actions also influences the market positively or negatively so the news are real. Despite no authority in charge of bitcoin price movement.

[philipma1957]

I read this news about Binance returned to Russia,
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/04/24/crypto-exchange-binance-is-back-in-russia-lifts-restrictions-on-russian-users-report/
i think just returning a exchange don't cause it, but pretty good news for russians

No this is not a pump.

This is BTC getting back to where it should be from a cost viewpoint.

Ie about 40k based on mining cost.

franky1 has talked about it.

btc has a base cost from creation viewpoint.

about 35-45k


traders speculate and drive it up or down.

we are not in the 35-45k slot which is kind of the proper mining price.

a pump would be over 45k.


think like this 6 cent power

and 20 s19s

means you burn 20 x 3 x 24  = 1500 kwatts a day (rounded to 1500 from 1440) X 6 cents  = 90 usd

you earn 20 x 100 x 0.078 = 156 usd minus 90 =  A 66 DOLLAR PROFIT

So a 66 dollar profit based on 20 x 1500 = 30,000 for machines

66 x 365 = 24,090 profit for those 20 machines is 2000 a month so in 15 months 30k or 1btc.

It is low it should be higher. we are underpriced based on miners costs.

If we were 40k we would make 110 a day profit or 40,150 in 1 year or  btc profit.

So we are simple pushing back to proper balanced levels.

The issue is why are we under 40k.

Not why are we pumping to 30k.

We are under correct levels due to bears wanting to get BTC on the cheap.

[franky1]

better math

350exahash network

asic of 190thash is 1,842,105 asics at hardware cost of $3600 each
1842105 x 3600 = $6,631,578,947
lifecycle of 2 years
means their per block time is 105,000 blocks meaning:
6631578947 / 105000 = 63157.90 per block = $10105.26 per btc hardware

1,842,105 asics at 5.2kw at 6cent per kw is:
9578946kw x 6cent= $574736.76 per hour = $95789.46 per block = $15326.31 per btc

hardware+electric= $25431.57 per btc
and thats if the network was constantly at a 350exa, which previous months was lower so value/underlying cost was below $25k but if it stays at this level then thats the average BOTTOM cost per btc moving forward

as for the top cost
well use the calculated hardware + enectric at a rating of 50cents/kwh
9578946kw x 50cent= $4789473 per hour = $798245.5 per block = $127719.28 per btc
hardware+electric= $137824.54 per btc

so from cheapest mining (bottom) to most expensive mining (top) is the window of value to premium which the spot market would speculate inbetween

basically dont expect a $17k btc again unless hashrate crashes. but dont expect spot to ATH to $200k either unless hashrate jumps by another 50%

[sana54210]

Its never just one thing, if one section was buying then another is selling those orders anyway.  It has to be a general trend to really turn the price, very roughly BTC has been following sentiment also expressed in the stock market or similar general finance trading.   Less worse is the general mood in banking and finance recently after there was some scare of weakness of a bank possible mismanagement.  Not that should have alot to do with crypto but it alters trading overall for fear of a deflationary event, speculators avoid trades etc. and its enough to turn the price.
  Russia is already trading its oil so far as I know, India and China having no national oil source has been too much of a reason to continue to supply Russia with capital; if it really were all or nothing type news in cash flows I'd take more notice of its effect.

I think it is basically the period where we are getting out of the inflation era. We had a terrible 2 years, one with inflation, one with higher interest rates and potentially recession, and we are getting out of those. Not saying we are better, but we are not getting worse and that's the point. When economy is not doing worse, that means it's a good thing, doesn't need to get better, it just needs to be doing alright.

This is why I believe that we should be helping out with a lot more situations financially and paying all the debts and just recovering. This causes bitcoin to go up, not Russia alone, not USA alone, but the whole world slowly and gradually doing better. Which should eventually turn into being much better again in the near future.

[|MINER|]

It is difficult to say that the current pump is due to Russian influence, as we know that the development of bitcoin users is increasing rapidly and in Africa there has been an increase of up to thousands of percent since 2021 so the pump is due to a significant increase in the number of users.

I would also like to agree with you in this point that it is really difficult in my opinion Russia is not the cause for this pump. I think market is running on his own speed . If we see that the next halving is not so far from now , So think before starting the halving pump I think these steps are for the recovering. Even then Bitcoin is now also a lot far from its all time high and after the q1 of 2023 it is recovering over 31k so I think there is no influencing of Russia for the pump.

[dragonvslinux]

In agreement with others in this thread, I don't think this has anything to do with Russia. Price has been in an uptrend since the start of the year and doubled in price. As soon as there was rejection from around $30K price corrected to $27K which is where bears failed to push prices lower. Then unsurprisingly price re-tested $30K level because ultimately price remains in an uptrend so the default direction is upwards.

There had already been 4/5 days of consolidation above $27K in order to confirm it as reasonable support, so the rebound back towards the recent highs is far from surprising in this sense. But as per usual people feel the need to attribute certains event to Bitcoin's price movement, as opposed to the reality that prices weren't moving below $27K quick enough, so investors/traders felt comfortable buying at higher prices.

[franky1]

In agreement with others in this thread, I don't think this has anything to do with Russia. Price has been in an uptrend since the start of the year and doubled in price. As soon as there was rejection from around $30K price corrected to $27K which is where bears failed to push prices lower. Then unsurprisingly price re-tested $30K level because ultimately price remains in an uptrend so the default direction is upwards.

There had already been 4/5 days of consolidation above $27K in order to confirm it as reasonable support, so the rebound back towards the recent highs is far from surprising in this sense. But as per usual people feel the need to attribute certains event to Bitcoin's price movement, as opposed to the reality that prices weren't moving below $27K quick enough, so investors/traders felt comfortable buying at higher prices.

in 2022 most futures market whales were able to perform many 1week-1month long shorts due to a stagnant hashrate competition and used other stashes to pressure the spot markets to stay in ranges to win their future contract targets

however in 2023 they are only managing 2-5 day contracts where the natural flow of spot markets push those whales stashes to extremes that it breaks

the hashrate competition and energy prices helped push the markets. but we all know the energy markets of the world are not due to russia. but due to greed of domestic energy companies pretending their profiteering price rises are russian caused

in 2022 bottomline value of efficient mining was ~$15k now if the 350exa hashrate persists $25k will be 2023 bottom as of q2