Did anyone notice this pattern?

[Natsuu]

(....)
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
(...)

For me, even if we say yes, it's still not guaranteed especially since we can't identify or difficult to predict when it will happen, when we will experience that all-time high again.
There are a lot of things to consider now and basis, like volume we have now versus before, there are a lot of players right now versus before. There are a lot of people who have already been introduced to Bitcoin versus before.
So all-time high could be here very soon or maybe more time in the future, we don't know now.

Very well said unto this. Because first, anything can happen in the market. Yes from where is the price right now which is the starting point, and then the ATH which is the other end of the point. The uncertainty is in the middle which is how can we get there. Is there any deep retracement first before going higher? Is it going higher directly? We don't know exactly. That's the law of uncertainty in trading.

The good news is, as long as you have faith with your initial investment and the projects you are supporting then all the wait and that uncertainty will be worth it.

 

[justdimin]

You are kinda wrong about the 2020 halving.
If I remember this correctly, the Bitcoin price went up to 35K USD in the beginning of 2021, which is several months after the halving. 35K USD was the ATH price back then, but the price broke the record and increased to levels above 59K USD in the spring of 2021, which was the biggest ATH in the history of Bitcoin. You are counting only the highest ATH after the 2020 halving, not the ATH that was before it.
Yes, many people think that Bitcoin is moving in cycle and that there's a price pattern, but this pattern won't continue forever and we shouldn't rely on such predictions all the time. I also believe in a 2025 ATH, but there's no guarantee that it will happen.

That is the only thing people have at their hands and that's why they are doing something like this. There is no argument that they won't be able to do it, we should consider that as a possibility and should be making as much profit as we possibly could from whatever we can predict.

I am not saying that all those predictions are right, but what is the other possibility, not trading at all? Just making up stuff? Sell or buy according whatever you feel like that day? None of that works, having a data historically is still better way to do than all those methods and that means we are going to end up with something that will profit people on the long term as well. If we are right, this is a good way to invest based on the past.

[BigBos]

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

Such a pattern cannot be denied but on the other hand it cannot be relied upon to be absolutely certain that such a prediction is a certainty.
Indeed for the last 3 halvings as you said all have relatively the same time and some people including some influencers also say that 2025 is most likely the next ATH but again, these are just some predictions that occur by looking at some pre-existing data but in the end we also cannot rely on this as a form of confidence that 2025 or mid-2026 could be ATH because it is only hope not certainty.

[romero121]

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

Such a pattern cannot be denied but on the other hand it cannot be relied upon to be absolutely certain that such a prediction is a certainty.
Indeed for the last 3 halvings as you said all have relatively the same time and some people including some influencers also say that 2025 is most likely the next ATH but again, these are just some predictions that occur by looking at some pre-existing data but in the end we also cannot rely on this as a form of confidence that 2025 or mid-2026 could be ATH because it is only hope not certainty.

Till date every halving have initiated the bullish move and the same have caused the market to reach new ath. Just on the same we cannot predict the price to reach new ath following the previous patterns of halving. With bitcoin the limited supply is a big factor that keeps the market progressive. There are people who had believed in the growth pattern to be the same and made decisions on their investment. Here people who had the ability to hold and maintain patience succeeded whereas the users who weren't able to hold it longer ended with minimal profit. So, it is all about the ability to hold that determines the profit amidst the growth/decline in the market.

[livingfree]

I think anyone noticing about the pattern the bull season of Bitcoin would be crazy since miner will get half portion of today reward and the newly minted coin will join circulation but not like previous year from now bitcoin will be scarce to get. Its like you mining gold but your pit is slowly not producing more gold.

I do believe this trend/pattern will continue until all bitcoin has been mined



Tho we still early guys - https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

I've seen the same rainbow chart but it has broken down the lines so I guess this is a new one but with a different range.

The cycle has been always been followed and have been there every four years. But we don't know if the same trend and period of time when the bull run will enter.

It could be even earlier this time but we will about to see that next year.

[Casdinyard]

There's a clear pattern behind bitcoin's rise and it always comes after a halving, and a massive news/desirable trend or update about bitcoin. First it was ICOs, and then DeFi, last 2020 NFTs took the stage, and in 2024 if we're to expect another ATH it's possible that we're going to experience another trend in the cryptocurrency world that will most definitely die off in the next couple of years, to be superceded by another more valuable trend in the future bull run. It's always been like that for cryptocurrencies, not that it's a bad thing mind you.

I don't expect bitcoin to right away shoot up in value after the halving comes, there has to be a new trend that would come around and it may even take the whole year before a massive change in bitcoin's price to even arrive.

[GeorgeJohn]

Who's still not aware with such pattern?

There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.

What those influencers out there, what they are saying is just a something that will make investors to go into the market and invest more funds and the more investors are coming into the market it's more bitcoin  price is getting more promising or increasing in the market, so if altcoins influencers state positively about bitcoin especially the next bullrun, some people do because of social media predictions of bitcoin and get involved in purchasing more of bitcoin  against the bullrun because they know that if market get positive above the price they purchased their coins they will make profit, so as I said before that social media influencers deceived many people to get into the market, secondly we are not supposed to depend on the information of social media influencers because I know quite well that social media information is like predictions of bitcoin.

[Haroon Akram]

Who's still not aware with such pattern?

There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.

What those influencers out there, what they are saying is just a something that will make investors to go into the market and invest more funds and the more investors are coming into the market it's more bitcoin  price is getting more promising or increasing in the market, so if altcoins influencers state positively about bitcoin especially the next bullrun, some people do because of social media predictions of bitcoin and get involved in purchasing more of bitcoin  against the bullrun because they know that if market get positive above the price they purchased their coins they will make profit, so as I said before that social media influencers deceived many people to get into the market, secondly we are not supposed to depend on the information of social media influencers because I know quite well that social media information is like predictions of bitcoin.

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?

New all time highs in the past usually occur 1 year or a little bit longer after a halving because halving is a stimulation for Bitcoin to appear more on media. It helps Bitcoin to be expose to more people and bring them as well as their capital to Bitcoin market.

It won't be seen after one night because people need time to research, have belief on something they hear of a first time, and surely need time for consideration before spending money to invest in Bitcoin. 1 year or 1.5 years, it is not too long but because you can not know where is the top, new all time high and even when it occurs, you can use past halving cycles and time needed to reach a new all time high for your plan to take profit in 2024 and 2025 bull run.

I paid $100 using Binance pay to a writer after checking the content it appeared AI generated. Is there a methods to claim a refund?

Sources:
https://pay.binance.com/en
https://easyaichecker.com/

[wiss19]

It's weird that latest messages are a bit more like spam, it's a shame that spam is getting more and more common. However, back to talking about the pattern, that is definitely true and it will be exactly the same again if you ask me. I mean I have no proof, that's just my thought, I think that's what we will have, maybe I am right and maybe I am wrong I can't really say what's going to happen but I do believe that it could be quite good. I think it should be something that will benefit everyone. So, we should definitely look into it as important deal and could be considering the benefit as high as possible.

I believe that the best thing to do would be just hold our coins for now, if we can hold for now, for another 2 years or so, I believe that it will be way beyond ATH and make us a lot of profit. I think later stages of 2025 will be about 100k+ and then during 2026 we are going to have a major crash, it's good to have a pattern for ups, but always remember the downs too.