Something we have to consider before longing in the bullish pattern of Bitcoin

[jeraldskie11]

While waiting for a retracement of Bitcoin for a couple of weeks now, Bitcoin was creating Ascending triangle pattern in 4h time frame which is a bullish pattern.
Pattern traders are supposedly waiting for the breakout in the upside direction before they entry for long.

But we should take care, maybe it's a trap because of these reasons:

*The bullish pattern was created in the weekly supply zone.

*RSI divergence

*Smart money are here to manipulate us.

Update: 01/04/24

The price broke the resistance and made a retracement as what we have seen in the picture below. I already have stated this possible outcome before and it happened. And since there is a clear break of structure in the upside, we can't still be sure that the price will go up higher as it's located in the strong supply zone. So possibly the price will go up higher to grab a liquidity before it goes down.

[adaseb]

Yeah they $48K zone won’t be easy to crack. It’s also one of the important fibs which usually causes a retracement and also it’s a pivot area and right below the $50K psychological.

I think if we get the green lite on the etf, it’ll spike there and close as a wick and then we will get some profit taking before revisiting this area again in a few months or a year, maybe after the halving like it was in previous cycles.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Yep. Thats pretty much my call for the next month. The etf will be accepted within 13 days. Until then, we can still sit in pattern. After acceptance, we will see a rally and the formation breaking out. The rally will end on the first day of ETF trading, which will probably be a few days later, which will be a period of profit-taking for all those who front-run of this event.
Which, from a technical point of view, will be a bounce from what you described as the "weekly supply zone", or a fake breakout of this zone only to immediately come back and start a longer correction.

[EarnOnVictor]

If you are still using the 4H chart for Bitcoin analysis in this current dispensation, then it means you are still not ready for serious business with the coin. The 4H chart is good, but it is too temporary views and could confuse analysts, particularly those who are HODling or buying the coin for long-term investments. This is the timeframe that one should be ready to buy and liquidate pretty fast within days most times if relied upon, this will only confuse rather than keep a trader/investor calm.

However, if that is your style, your concern is valid, but to many, it can't be valid because the market will always have so many movements within the wider scope of the main trend of the market which is what you are pointing out. As it is, based on my chart, I always see the 4H chart validating short-term buys and sells at different times, but yet, the actual trend of Bitcoin is bullish, which is why I often ignore it. The market has likely slipped into short-term ranging movements which will further confuse your view over time as it will soon buy again for days after this current falling before slipping lower again thereafter. This might continue to happen till next year and will also continue to confuse traders who go lower in their timeframe preference.

[Dave1]

Yeah they $48K zone won’t be easy to crack. It’s also one of the important fibs which usually causes a retracement and also it’s a pivot area and right below the $50K psychological.

I think if we get the green lite on the etf, it’ll spike there and close as a wick and then we will get some profit taking before revisiting this area again in a few months or a year, maybe after the halving like it was in previous cycles.

And I think we have a thread that $48k will be the selling price, unfortunately, we didn't even reach that price and so those TA have been invalidated. And with that, I will also think that $48k will be hard to crack as obviously, short term speculators are going to sell when we reach this price.

So still a very long game for us, months before the halving and then we still don't know what the state of spot Bitcoin ETF.

Although chances are high for a approval next year, but still everything is out of our control and purely based on what the SEC will do.