Populism and corruption and cowardice to admit the failures of his rule is the main problem. He will continue to promise "golden mountains", talk about insidious enemies, and other fairy tales just to stay in power. Change of power for such rulers is almost synonymous with a huge prison sentence for crimes committed, so ALL possible methods will be used just to stay in power. By the way - unleashing a war for an invented reason is one of such mechanisms.
The question is different - how much patience will the population have to live under such conditions?