Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

AUDUSD 4H Chart Signals Reversal Potential

The AUD/USD forex pair, commonly known as the "Aussie," is one of the most actively traded pairs in the market, influenced heavily by commodity prices, interest rate expectations, and macroeconomic data from both Australia and the U.S. Today’s focus is on the Melbourne Institute CPI and Private Sector Credit releases, which could boost the Australian Dollar if inflation and credit data surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, the U.S. Chicago PMI and speeches from Fed officials Bostic and Goolsbee may strengthen the USD if they adopt a hawkish stance, making today crucial for short-term AUD-USD direction based on these key economic drivers.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
As observed in the AUD/USD 4-hour chart, the pair has been experiencing a broader bullish trend over the long term, albeit with intermittent corrections. Recently, price action surged strongly from the 0.63755 support zone, aligning with a significant volume increase, and is now retracing slightly after touching the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands. The latest candle is green and has rebounded from the middle Bollinger Band and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6511—indicating renewed bullish momentum that could drive the AUD USD price toward the upper Bollinger Band and the key psychological resistance at the 1.000 Fibonacci level (~0.6580). However, the recent red volume bars suggest selling pressure, which warrants caution. The MACD line is slightly above the signal line but flattening, while the histogram shows weakening bullish momentum—traders should watch for confirmation before further upside continuation.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

US500 price action analysis post NFP release

The US500, also commonly referred to as the S&P 500 or SPX, is a benchmark index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Known as the “broad market index,” it serves as a barometer for U.S. equity markets and the health of the broader economy. In forex and index trading, it plays a key role in global risk sentiment and is closely watched by traders, especially during periods of economic announcements and central bank policy updates. Fundamentally, today's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and related labor market data will heavily influence the US500 price action. Strong NFP numbers and rising wages would reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially boosting the U.S. dollar while pressuring equities due to future rate hike fears. Conversely, softer labor data might give equities a bullish push as traders bet on rate cuts or a more dovish Fed stance. Additionally, ISM and PMI services data, along with Raphael Bostic’s speech on monetary policy, are likely to inject further volatility. As inflation and employment remain at the center of Fed policy, today's data holds the potential to reshape market sentiment on the S&P500 daily chart technical and fundamental outlook.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Technically, the US500 H4 chart shows the index in a strong bullish uptrend, having reached a new all-time high at approximately 6276.43, with price action riding a steep ascending trendline. The Ichimoku Cloud confirms bullish momentum: the cloud (Kumo) is green and expanding, indicating strength and support below. The price is trading well above the cloud and above the base line, and closely hugging the conversion line, a sign of sustained upward momentum. The lagging span is slightly above price, signaling continued bullish confirmation. Volume shows increasing participation, while the MACD histogram and MACD lines remain in positive territory, showing continued bullish momentum but also suggesting potential overextension as momentum starts to slow. This setup calls for cautious optimism: while the trend remains bullish, upcoming economic data could trigger a short-term correction or consolidation near the highs on the US500 H4 chart technical analysis.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

EURUSD analysis with key support and resistance

The EUR/USD, also known as the "Euro-Dollar" and "Fiber," is one of the most actively traded forex pairs, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. Its movement is heavily influenced by economic data and monetary policies from both the Eurozone and the United States. Today’s market activity is expected to be subdued due to the US holiday, Independence Day, which may result in low liquidity and erratic volatility. Key Eurozone data, including industrial orders, output, and retail sales, will provide insights into economic strength, potentially supporting the Euro if results exceed expectations. However, with reduced market activity in the US, significant movement may be limited unless unexpected data causes a surprise shift in sentiment.

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Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EUR/USD price has been moving in an upward bullish trend, but after the significant bearish candle observed yesterday, the price has corrected partially. As seen in the Bollinger Bands, the price has dropped from the middle band to the lower band in a single candle, indicating short-term volatility. Following this drop, three green candles have emerged, with the most recent one trying to recover and reach the middle band once again. The chart highlights important support and resistance levels that have previously influenced price reactions. The MACD and histogram indicators show some bullish momentum, but caution is advised given the market's current state of lower liquidity due to the US holiday.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore