An intriguing phenomenon has emerged during the current Bitcoin upswing, with the creation of Bitcoin millionaires not keeping pace with the market’s upwards trajectory. The analysis from Kaiko indicates that the slower emergence of wallets holding at least a million dollars in Bitcoin coincides with the cryptocurrency‘s price surge, hinting that some investors might be capitalizing on the appreciation to realize gains.
Read the full article here:
https://en.bitcoinhaber.net/bitcoin-wealth-expansion-faces-slowdown-as-market-surgesIf their explanation is correct, it seems very shortsighted to me. Based on just US ETF inflows since January, my mental math says they alone are collecting about 8 X new supply at US$72K per week. And so 16 X new supply post halving. That would mean equilibrium is 8-16 X the price now - assuming ETF demand stays constant. And that doesn't include other non-ETF demand which is more difficult to measure. So once those willing to sell at these prices dries up the price has to increase to get anyone else to sell. You'd think people would clue in even ignoring the halving, but I guess not yet. Prices are set at the margin so it doesn't take much more demand or slightly less available supply to significantly increase the fiat price.
And that ignores any additional demand, e.g. from institutional investors and retail investors who don't have access (e.g. those at vanguard, ml.com etc).
