I think the biggest thing that will impact the halving would be the amount of miners that shut their machines off for a while. This matters because difficulty is high, and until that difficult is adjusted, we are going to see nobody making that much, and most will even lose, unless they are super efficient. During this period, people will lose money and they will stop selling and that will make the price go up.
A lot of people will keep on buying too, specially with this new ETF situation that will not end. So when you think about it, this readjustment period will definitely make it very hard and won't keep it any lower. I believe that the price will skyrocket near 100k levels thanks to this, and should be something nice for holders.
You have made a brilliant point here. I dont think the ETF and the Macro economical factor will really affect the halving process this year. This is because it has already done that early before now which we saw a new ATH. At first it delayed after the WTF was approved, then slowly adoption started increase and gradually the price of Bitcoin rose. Well, i have no doubt that the miners would not want to shut down their machines for a while. If they do so many things will occur, like high transaction fees because of congestion and as well bitcoin upward movement in price.