An end closer than expected

An end closer than expectedBTC

With all our apologies to math fans, we will spare here the methodology for implementing the logarithms of bitcoin prices in the so-called LPPLS model (for Log Periodic Power Law Singularity) used to predict the occurrence of a singularity, a disruption of conditions with major consequences for the asset.

Klaus Grobys' projections thus support the arrival of a singularity by March 2129. Given the uncertainty surrounding the precision of the estimate, the author concedes, this remains consistent with the 2140 horizon for an upheaval in the wake of the final bitcoin issued.

But the finance doctor believes his study provides “evidence that investors who want to use bitcoin as a long-term investment would be making a mistake due to the expected arrival of a singularity in the future and suggesting an expected value of zero .”

In any case, BTC will have already fallen back to the bottom in the meantime according to “another discovery”. His model predicts that prices will reach “a local minimum by the end of February 2045, coinciding with the spontaneous singularity of US stocks”. (Because, yes, in another study, Klaus Grobys prophesies a large-scale collapse on Wall Street around 2050).

To put a final nail in Bitcoin's coffin, the author explains that this catastrophic scenario in the not-so-distant future supports the analyzes indicating that the demand for the queen cryptocurrency arises from speculation.

“Our results appear to be contrary to the idea that demand can be driven by expectations regarding the future usefulness of bitcoin as a medium of exchange,” insists Klaus Grobys.

As an epilogue, this finance doctor from Vaasa asks this rhetorical question about whether the crypto markets, DeFi or NFTs, still have intrinsic value. And it invites future research to explore this dimension in more detail.

In the meantime, the paradox of this type of study is that through its predictions it accentuates the renunciation cost of Bitcoin, by stimulating certain investors to position themselves on this digital asset in (even more) limited edition.