Cryptocurrency market analysis with a focus on BTC, ETH, SOL, and other altcoins

[dinotrader777]

BTC Higher Time Frame (HTF) Analysis
  - Current bullish outlook despite bearish propaganda.
  - Emphasis on a macro range of 59k-73k and a micro range of 66k-71k.
  - Importance of not cherry-picking data points.

BTC Lower Time Frame (LTF) Analysis
  - Long bias at 68.8k, targeting previous highs rather than new highs.

ETH Analysis
  - Weekly SFP not valid; focus on holding above 3500 to remain bullish.
  - Potential LTF setup discussed with flexible invalidation points.

SOL Analysis
  - Interest around 153, despite higher time frame bearishness.
  - Positive outlook on recent price action sweeping the origin of a pump.

PEPE Analysis
  - Discussion on range lows and highs; recommendation to take profits mid-range.

WIF Analysis
  - Holding 2.60 region is crucial; importance of stabilizing after volatility.

BONK Analysis
  - Looks decent with specific price levels for bidding under previous lows.

General BTC Sentiment
  - Acknowledgement of bearish appearance but finding opportunities in scary setups.

Execution Strategy
  - Close out 25-50% of position on SFP in lower time frames even if entered on higher time frames.
  - Emphasis on execution quality and risk management.

Other Coins Analysis
  ONDO: Recommended bidding around 1.27-1.28.
  TON: Good buy around 7.12-7.00.
  TIA: Advised to avoid due to poor performance.
  BNB: Should bounce at current levels; similar outlook for SOL.
  FLOKI: Weak chart after losing prior structure.
  INJ: Potential good setup forming.

[dinotrader777]

Crypto Market Update16/06/24


Bitcoin's Current Position

    Bitcoin is at a crucial point that will dictate its short-term direction and influence altcoins.
    A breakout from the multi-month consolidation phase is expected.

Bitcoin's Impact on Altcoins

    Altcoins that have performed well recently may slow down.
    Underperforming altcoins may gain momentum as Bitcoin breaks out.

Technical Analysis and Predictions

    The $60K mark is a significant line of validation.
    Since March 2024, Bitcoin has been in a reaccumulation phase.
    A smaller range within this phase shows deviations and reclaims, indicating potential for a larger move.
    An impulsive move is expected, potentially driving Bitcoin to $100K or higher.

Future Projections

    The initial impulsive move may be followed by a series of increasingly aggressive upward movements.
    The first leg of the move could be around $10K, leading to subsequent legs pushing Bitcoin up to $120K.
    A parabolic advance and a blow-off top are anticipated, similar to the pattern seen in 2017.

Timeframes and Market Structure

    October is estimated as a potential peak period for Bitcoin.
    Corrections and subsequent impulses are expected to speed up.
    The $60K level remains a crucial support, with downside potential limited.

Short-term Movements

    Predictions for a breakout within 7 to 10 days.
    Lower time frame impulses are monitored to indicate the end of the current correction and the start of the next major move.

Risk Management and Trading Strategy

    Importance of managing risk, especially when trading options.
    Advice against inexperienced traders dabbling in options due to high risks.
    Strategies for identifying lower time frame impulses to anticipate market reversals.

Altcoins Performance Relative to Bitcoin

    Altcoins that have performed well over the past 3 to 6 months may experience a slowdown if Bitcoin breaks out from its current consolidation phase.
    Conversely, altcoins that have not been performing well might gain momentum as Bitcoin makes its move.

Conclusion

    Bitcoin is poised for significant growth, but market conditions must be closely monitored.
    Maintaining above $60K is critical for the bullish outlook.
    The market is expected to experience substantial movements, leading to potential highs of over $100K.

[dinotrader777]

Bitcoin - What's Next?
Sunday Report: All You Need to Know

In our latest Sunday report, we focus on Bitcoin's recent performance and future prospects. Last week, Bitcoin was at $70k, and our analysis predicted a drop to $66k, which has come true. This price point is considered a long-term buy region.
Key Analysis:

    Trend and Movement: Bitcoin's journey from $16k to $70k has been marked by significant sideways movement and corrections. This is a natural part of the market cycle and not indicative of a constant upward trend.
    Critical Levels: The current price range, or "box," has the top between $72-73k and the bottom between $56-57k. Understanding and navigating within this range is crucial.
    EMA50 Indicator: The Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) at the yellow line is pivotal. It lies in the middle of our box, indicating whether the trend is towards the top or bottom.
    Market Makers' Strategy: Movements around $64,400 should be expected as market makers aim to exhaust traders. The key is patience and understanding these planned moves.

Current Market Sentiment:

    Bitcoin is expected to continue sideways movement within the box.
    Breaking above or below the EMA50 will define the smaller ranges of movement.
    Patience is critical as we prepare for a potential breakout leading to a super bull cycle.

In summary, the next steps for Bitcoin involve closely watching the EMA50, understanding the market's planned moves, and preparing for a potential breakout from the current range. Patience and strategic buying at key levels will be essential for navigating this period.

[dinotrader777]

Market Analysis and Trade Ideas from Haven Group's Pierre: June 2024 Update
Bitcoin's Critical Levels and Trading Strategies
Current Market Sentiment

Pierre, a key analyst from Haven Group, shares his latest insights on Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the current "bounce or rip" scenario. With BTC retesting the $65,000 mark, there's optimism among bulls, but Pierre stresses the need for reclaiming critical levels to ensure further upward movement.
Key Levels and Strategy Adjustments

Pierre highlights the importance of monitoring the H1 chart to identify levels that need to be reclaimed for BTC to maintain its mid-range and aim for a potential retest of $66,500-$67,500. A significant update from Pierre is the adjustment of his hard stop loss (SL) for BTC exposure from $62,800 to $63,500. He believes a break below $64,000 would likely indicate the end for bulls. Pierre notes:

    H1 Chart Analysis: The focus is on reclaiming certain levels to sustain the mid-range and support the long position.
    Stop Loss Adjustment: The SL has been tightened to $63,500, acknowledging the risk of a break below $64,000.
    Manual Intervention: Pierre indicates he would manually cut his position if BTC closes below the mid-range, provided he's at his desk.

Detailed Chart Insights

Pierre acknowledges the complexity of his D1 chart but assures that all critical information is included. He emphasizes the importance of the updated SL strategy, considering his limited availability to monitor the market post-close.

    D1 Chart (BTC/USDT): A comprehensive analysis showcasing long-term trends and critical levels.
    H1 Chart (BTC/USDT): A more immediate focus on shorter-term trends and necessary reclaim levels.

Broader Market Perspective

Pierre extends his analysis beyond BTC, mentioning the broader market's "bounce or rip" condition. He advises traders to have clear exit strategies and to pay attention to lower timeframe (LTF) trends for potential targets.

    Trading Opportunities: Emphasis on playing bounce attempts with clear invalidations.
    Market Health: Noting the degradation of the altcoin market, Pierre hopes for bounces to provide trading opportunities and market relief.

Altcoin Analysis and Specific Trade Ideas
Altcoins in Focus

Pierre shifts attention to altcoins, particularly highlighting Ethereum (ETH) and its potential impact on the market following the SEC's decision to back down on ETH 2.0.

    ETH and ETH Betas: Eyes are on ETH and related altcoins (ENS, PEPE, LDO, PENDLE) to see if the momentum shift can spark a trend retest or new trading opportunities.

Toncoin (TON) Analysis

Pierre also analyzes Toncoin (TON), focusing on its ability to defend its D1 trend and form a lower high.

    TON/USDT Chart (D1): Analysis of TON's potential to hold its daily trend and implications for future movements.

Final Thoughts and Recommendations

Pierre concludes with a reminder to traders to stay disciplined with their plans, especially in the current uncertain market conditions. He advises focusing on D1 trend retests for main targets and monitoring LTF trends for immediate opportunities.
Key Takeaways

    Critical BTC Levels: $64,000 as a pivotal level for bulls.
    Adjusted SL for BTC: Tightened to $63,500.
    Altcoin Market: Potential relief and trading opportunities in ETH and related assets.
    Discipline and Strategy: Importance of clear exit strategies and adherence to trading plans.

For detailed charts and further updates, Pierre directs readers to his analyses on TradingView:

    BTC/USDT D1 Chart
    BTC/USDT H1 Chart
    TON/USDT D1 Chart

[dinotrader777]

BTC Trend Overview
Key Observations:
H4 Trend Shift: BTC has flipped its H4 trend and rapidly approached the H4 100 MA gap fill.
Critical Levels:
H4 100 MA: Must be broken to target the H4 200 EMA at 64.7k.
Support Level: Must hold the H4 trend and H1 200 EMA if retested at 61.5-62.0k.
Higher Targets: Achieving these conditions sets up a potential retest of the H4 200 EMA and D1 trend.
Holding key support levels is crucial to maintain bullish momentum. The market's ability to avoid dipping to 58-60k is seen as a positive sign for bulls.

Focus for Today:
H4 100 MA: Break and hold this level.
H4 200 EMA: Target if the H4 100 MA is broken.
Support Retests: Ensure the H4 trend holds if retested.
Early-week movements can be tricky, often requiring confirmation post-NYO (New York Open).

ETH Analysis
Key Observations:
H4 100 MA: Needs to flip to support.
H4 200 EMA: Must break this level to confirm a bullish trend.
Similar to BTC, ETH must hold critical support levels to maintain its upward trajectory.

General Market Insights
Trend Reclaims and Gap Fills: Classic strategies involve reclaiming trends and filling gaps, which have been discussed extensively in recent analysis.
Pre-NYO Moves: Pre-Monday NYO moves can be unreliable, so it's important to see how the market settles.

Focus Areas:
H4 100 MA: A critical level for both BTC and ETH.
H4 Trend Support: Holding this level is vital for a bullish outlook.
Market Behavior: Monitor how SPX behavior impacts BTC, as it often serves as an indicator for broader market strength.

Altcoin Watchlist
Weakness: AI coins like FET and WLD, and TIA show notable weakness.
Strength: WIF shows potential for an H4 200 EMA retest, with ENS also standing out.

Trading Strategies:
Above H4 Trend: Potential scalp long targeting H4 100 MA & H4 200 EMA.
Below H4 Trend: Consider swing shorts using D1 trend breaks as invalidation.
Bounce Plays: Focus on D1 downtrend retests as primary targets.

Market Sentiment
Despite BTC's bounce into the D1 13 EMA and breaking the H4 downtrend, many altcoins remain lethargic. It's still early in the week, so trends may still emerge. Keeping an eye on key levels and market behavior will be crucial in navigating the current landscape.

[dinotrader777]

General Market Overview

First, let's address the overall market sentiment. Bitcoin isn't currently our focus due to potential market fluctuations related to the Mt. Gox distribution. This event may lead to increased selling pressure, affecting Bitcoin's fundamentals for the month. As a result, we believe other cryptocurrencies might perform better in the short term.
Bitcoin Analysis

Despite not being heavily invested in Bitcoin, it's essential to keep an eye on potential buying zones. Here are the key levels to watch on the daily timeframe:

    Around $56,000
    Near the previous lows

If Bitcoin's price approaches these areas, consider taking a calculated risk, which, for us, ranges from 4% to 6% of the trading portfolio.
Trading Strategy and Risk Management

One crucial piece of advice for traders experiencing losses is to stop trading temporarily. If you're down significantly, it's often best to step away from the screen, engage in physical activity, or spend time with friends. This mental reset can prevent further emotional trading and potential losses.

When it comes to managing trades, I follow a simple rule: if the market activity is primarily physical (like physically watching charts), switch to a mental activity (like reading). This balance helps maintain clarity and avoid burnout.
Altcoin Focus: Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL)
Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum hasn't shown strong bullish signs recently. We exited our positions around bearish retests, as the price action didn't confirm a trend change. It's crucial to differentiate between different trade setups, and currently, ETH hasn't provided a convincing buy signal.
Solana (SOL)

Solana, on the other hand, might offer some immediate trading opportunities. On lower timeframes (like the 4-hour chart), current price levels could be a good entry point. The recent sharp decline in Solana's price suggests a potential overreaction, which might be an opportunity for a bounce. Look for a target around $145, with a stop loss set below the recent lows to manage risk effectively.
Hedging and Spot Positions

Hedging spot positions with short trades can be a viable strategy. However, my approach is straightforward: if Bitcoin loses its weekly market structure, I plan to exit all positions. This simplicity helps in managing trades without overcomplicating the decision-making process.
Market Psychology and Patience

During slow market downturns, there's no set time frame to wait before looking for long positions. Instead, focus on market reactions, especially on lower timeframes, to gauge buying pressure. Look for candle patterns and wicks indicating buyers stepping in, which can signal a potential entry point.
Conclusion

The crypto market is currently in a state of flux, with Bitcoin facing potential selling pressure and altcoins showing mixed signals. It's essential to stay vigilant, manage risk, and avoid emotional trading. Always look for signs of buyer interest and adjust your strategies accordingly.

Stay tuned for more updates, and remember to keep your trading approach balanced and well-informed. Happy trading!

[justdimin]

General BTC Sentiment
  - Acknowledgement of bearish appearance but finding opportunities in scary setups.

Execution Strategy
  - Close out 25-50% of position on SFP in lower time frames even if entered on higher time frames.
  - Emphasis on execution quality and risk management.

You are welcome to provide all long term, short term and general sentiment of bitcoin market but I feel like other markets are not preferred by this community as far as what I have observed. Because, what you are discussing today may not be the same coins/token in one year of time. In altcoin discussion and speculation boards, we can see such change overs all the times. I mean people were crazy on lite, ripple and doge but these are at the verge of delisting or at least being not attractive to traders and investors. So, my suggestion would be sticking around BTC and if you need another one means then you may include, ETH.

Another thing I am concerned is, what are strategies that you are using for your all kind of analysis. I mean, for long term and short term, we cannot rely on same strategy and similarly all altcoins may not obey same strategy. If you are ready, kindly share your technical part as well here which may help and double check your analysis by other traders here.

[dinotrader777]

Spot Position Update

I've decided to cash out 70% of my spot positions. I'm not planning to build up the same kind of long-term spot holdings anymore. The plan is to liquidate these positions, pay the necessary taxes, and move on. I'll keep 30% of the holdings just in case there's an unexpected supercycle, but I'm not counting on it.

Most of my future earnings will come from trading over the next two years. This will be more of a bonus rather than the main focus.
Market Update and Personal Insights

As of now, unless prices are exceptionally good, I'm not too interested in expanding my spot positions. My focus is shifting towards short-term derivatives trading when the market turns.

These pullback periods are fantastic for traders who are prepared. Sometimes, being prepared means recognizing that it’s better not to take mediocre trades in a challenging market.

Historically, I've been more profitable with long positions. While my hit rates for long and short trades are similar, the average return on long positions is significantly higher. My losses also tend to be larger with shorts. This pattern suggests that prioritizing long trades is more effective for my trading style. After 7 years and two full market cycles, I'm confident in this approach.

I'm planning to buy more towards mid to late July. I want to observe the impact of the Mt. Gox distribution in real-time and see how prices react at key support levels.
Trading Wisdom

"The key to winning is playing good defense."

    Protect Your Capital:
        Without capital, you can't trade. Without trading, you can't win. It's that simple.
        The biggest mistake new traders make (and many experienced ones) is focusing on potential profits before considering possible losses. You must reverse this thinking and always consider your potential loss first.

    Knowing When to Stop:
        Many talented traders don't know when to stop. They might have access to better charts, faster execution, and other advantages, but the real edge comes from objective and rigid risk management, often enforced by trading firms.
        If you're trading independently, set a daily stop limit. Once you hit this limit, stop trading for the day. Take a break the next day, and return with a clear head to avoid revenge trading.

I've experienced both sides—starting as a part-time trader while working a 9-to-5 job and now trading professionally. This perspective has taught me the importance of disciplined risk management."

    Tom Dante

Educational Insight: The Importance of Risk Management in Trading

Understanding risk management is crucial for both new and experienced traders. It's not just about maximizing profits but also about minimizing losses. Here are some educational pointers on effective risk management:

    Set Stop Losses: Always use stop losses to protect your capital. This helps you limit potential losses and manage your risk effectively.

    Position Sizing: Don’t put all your capital into a single trade. Diversify your positions to spread out the risk.

    Risk-Reward Ratio: Evaluate the potential reward of a trade against the possible risk. A common rule is to aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.

    Keep Emotions in Check: Trading can be emotional, but it’s important to stick to your strategy and not let fear or greed dictate your decisions.

By implementing these strategies, traders can better navigate the market's ups and downs, ensuring long-term success and stability in their trading careers.