there can't be fake bitcoin.
In general I agree. There are challenges to overcome when Bitcoin begins really to scale via Layer-2s. And this will have to happen, because there is simply not enough space on the blockchain if there is a massive investment in
BTC like currently in gold. And no, bigger blocks would not change that, at least if the blocks aren't enormous (threatening decentralization).
Is a "Layer 2 Bitcoin" still a Bitcoin? Lightning and some other technologies like Drivechains can ensure that because no Bitcoins can be created out of thin air with these technologies, but at least Lightning is not the ideal technology to hodl Bitcoin for a longer time. However there are a lot of centralized and semicentralized "bridges" proliferating, for example wBTC. And in these cases, "fake Bitcoins" are not impossible to be created and benefitted from.
However, a point in favour of Bitcoin even in this case is that these fake "Bridge bitcoins" will very likely only survive a few blocks, because all movements on blockchains are public. In the case of gold, fake gold can survive for years undetected in jewelry or gold bars, as nobody has a complete vision of the "state of all gold in the world" like it occurs with blockchains.
But even then, I think the Bitcoin community has to monitor Layer-2s and point out fraudulent initiatives. The
BitcoinLayers project is doing a quite good job, and I'm also observing some projects
here.
I still think bitcoin marketcap will be above gold easily, gold has been around for so long and this is the max attention it got, not a lot of people think the same way about bitcoin and I bet they will do better.
I think here the volatility question is the key. Once Bitcoin loses less than 50% in its bear markets, that will increase confidence a lot.
That's why I'm currently investigating the feasibility of Bitcoin derivatives
based on MAs (moving averages) l already menationed in earlier posts. Imagine you can invest in the 30 day average Bitcoin price, even a dip like in early August would then not be really dangerous, and in a bear market you would lose much less. Until now what I've calculated, it seems they could be really an alternative to put options, as the premiums the "conservative" party in these contracts would have to pay would be significantly lower.
@Lucius: Mostly agree with your post this time