[Charts] Rogozhin - Elliott Wavecount and Sentiment Discussion

[Rogozhin]

http://www.sentitrade.com/blog-en/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Elliott-wave.png

With the recent price drop of Bitcoin and the near completion of a full price cycle I would like to start an Elliott Wavecount thread focusing on sentiment analysis, volume analysis, fundamentals/news, and of course price. All are welcome, informed opinions, charts and wavecounts are highly encouraged.

More info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle


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Price is currently 476 on BTCe, and we soon start Wave 1 of the next cycle. It is characterized by focus on negative news (China's ban, recent Bter deposit shutdown rumors, USA's decision to tax capital gains) and negative investor sentiment. Shorting and selling is the popular action. Once the price starts rising and the classic disbelief of its veracity starts filling the forums we will be able to decisively declare Wave 1.

[chessnut]

small fractal but hey, good enough for me after panic selling. sorry about the shitty illustration, I dont have great software.

[chessnut]

Rogozhin, btw thanks for making this thread! we share the same beliefs at the moment, while some technical analysts I know that aren't half bad are even turning bearish.

On ristos thread this morning, there was a fella seemingly very frustrated. he says 'thats it, I sold everything, game over'. and when even the nubs have sold, who is left to sell? the fundamentals may be terrible, but nobody to sell!

There is a good bet on Bitbet atm, bitcoin to pass 400 before June. very good odds for 'No'!

[eboard10]

Hi Rogozhin,

Glad to see fellow EW analysts on the site. I only just started reading and applying EW principles about a month ago so I still have a lot to learn.

Would you agree that we just concluded a flat bottomed descending triangle at the $436 mark? If so, do you see this as the end of the correction or is there still the possibility of a complex pattern shaping up?

[Rogozhin]

Hi Rogozhin,

Glad to see fellow EW analysts on the site. I only just started reading and applying EW principles about a month ago so I still have a lot to learn.

Would you agree that we just concluded a flat bottomed descending triangle at the $436 mark? If so, do you see this as the end of the correction or is there still the possibility of a complex pattern shaping up?

https://i.imgur.com/BbhZhJ2.png

Yes it is a flat bottomed descending triangle around $436, but we have not broken out yet.

Note that price has a difficult time passing the $400 mark due to heavy resistance. The last two times price touched $400, volume spiked up extremely heavily, signalling many buyers were happy to buy at the price and many sellers were required to sustain it. Since we have a very large descending triangle with a bottom around the resistance $400-436, I place a high probability on it breaking to the upside. That would be similar to the April bubble scenario, in which $50 was major volume resistance and price bottomed just above it at $68 during the capitulation.

[Rogozhin]

Call me crazy: My entire portfolio is now long at 2.3x leverage. Current price 478 Bitstamp. 

I missed the chance to leverage the July 6th bottom. I won't miss it again.

[chessnut]

Call me crazy: My entire portfolio is now long at 2.3x leverage. Current price 478 Bitstamp. 

I missed the chance to leverage the July 6th bottom. I won't miss it again.

nice one!

Same here. This could be the opportunity of a life time.

..... and the bears are getting so frustrated.

Wedge consolidation on Huobi. Huobi will call the shots for a while yet. the market wants to go UP, and every opportune moment fiat will flow through.

no surprises in chinese mid day when risk of announcement is high, the market is moving sideways.

[chessnut]

should for all reasons break out to the upside.

[chessnut]

should for all reasons break out to the upside.

easy money

[YipYip]

Rogozhin, btw thanks for making this thread! we share the same beliefs at the moment, while some technical analysts I know that aren't half bad are even turning bearish.

On ristos thread this morning, there was a fella seemingly very frustrated. he says 'thats it, I sold everything, game over'. and when even the nubs have sold, who is left to sell? the fundamentals may be terrible, but nobody to sell!

There is a good bet on Bitbet atm, bitcoin to pass 400 before June. very good odds for 'No'!

ooOOOHHHh   BitBet.....Thanks for the info i am down to get some good coinz

(When u say pass u mean to go below 400 i assume )