Do redeemed collectable values go up and down with the price of Bitcoin?

[bitcoin_heysoos]

Hi everyone, old to Bitcoin but new to collectables...
Assuming redeemed or unloaded Bitcoin collectables, does the value go up and down with the Bitcoin bull and bear cycles?

Let's simplify with the most "common" redeemed 1 BTC Casascius coin and assume it's valued at $1000 now.
Was it valued at $500 in the last bear market in 2023?
Was it valued at $1000 in the bull market of 2021 or less than $500?

I'm taking a wild guess, but I imagine the price of Bitcoin outperformed any redeemed/unloaded Bitcoin collectable, so if you had a budget of $1000 to spend on Bitcoin collectables in 2023, in hindsight it would have probably been more profitable to buy Bitcoin or sell your entire collection then, and go all in on Bitcoin in 2023?

(I do understand many people collect things for the historical significance and joy of it, and not because they can sell their collection for profit in the future)
Thank you in advance for any insights from collectable veterans!

[Kazkaz27]

Regarding physical Bitcoins, Does the value go up and down with the Bitcoin bull and bear cycles?

Yes, but if loaded they retain better than Bitcoin itself due to the added collectors value. Hype changes alot

The market is changing, physical bitcoins will likely continue to increases as the masses adopt Bitcoin through all the institutional adoption and government acceptance

Buying Bitcoin itself so far has been a better investment than buying any physical Bitcoin I believe… although these items are tools and pieces of art. They will increase in terms of fait forever and likely continue to outperform every other category of numismatic coins in terms of sheer outlyer values

[bitcoin_heysoos]

Yes, but if loaded they retain better than Bitcoin itself due to the added collectors value. Hype changes alot

I imagine the premiums (percentage above face BTC value) on "common" unredeemed and loaded Casascius coins will continue to go up as Bitcoin prices move higher, but I quickly looked at closed auctions on 1BTC coins that ended on Nov 9, 2022 when BTC was $18,000 and the auctions for a 1BTC Casascius were $31,000 to $38,000!

Then I looked at closed auctions on August 23, 2024 when BTC was at $60,000 and the 1BTC coins closed at $70,500.
With just this limited data, it seems like the premiums are going down percentage wise, which kinda makes sense? 

When 1 BTC was valued at $1000, someone is more likely to pay 200% face value, but not 200% when 1 BTC is $200k.  Maybe when 1 BTC is $200k in the future, a 1BTC Casascius might just have a slight premium of like 5% to 10%

Buying Bitcoin itself so far has been a better investment than buying any physical Bitcoin I believe… although these items are tools and pieces of art. They will increase in terms of fait forever and likely continue to outperform every other category of numismatic coins in terms of sheer outlyer values

I think you are right, buying Bitcoin itself will outperform buying any Bitcoin collectable, except maybe for the cream of the crop Casascius coins with denominations of 25BTC or higher that are outliers.  Thanks for your comments!

[henkcryptotank]

For me, collectibles dramatically reduce the spending of btc, hence they are worth the premium. In the long run, this will pay off.

GrtzTnk

[bitcoin_heysoos]

For me, collectibles dramatically reduce the spending of btc, hence they are worth the premium. In the long run, this will pay off.

GrtzTnk

Can you clarify what you mean by that?  Say you have a loaded 1 BTC collectable, are you saying it's going to be hard to spend the BTC on that coin, versus if you had 1BTC in cold storage that you can easily spend?

[Cointxz]

AFAIK, premium value of token decreased if you redeemed the coin value since the coin is not intact condition. You already peeled the coin sticker when you redeemed the value inside so it’s not the same condition coin as before.

The premium value decreased significantly once you redeemed it based on my experience when I sold my redeemed and not redeemed token few years ago.

Unloaded Bitcoin coin is different case on redeemed coin though since it’s still on its intact condition.

[bitcoin_heysoos]

AFAIK, premium value of token decreased if you redeemed the coin value since the coin is not intact condition. You already peeled the coin sticker when you redeemed the value inside so it’s not the same condition coin as before.

The premium value decreased significantly once you redeemed it based on my experience when I sold my redeemed and not redeemed token few years ago.

Unloaded Bitcoin coin is different case on redeemed coin though since it’s still on its intact condition.

yes, I do get that the premium will be reduced when the coin is redeemed, as it should.  But how about comparing apples to apples, premiums on unredeemed coins based on the price of Bitcoin through bull and bear market cycles?

If a 1 BTC unredeemed Casascius coin is valued at let's say $115,000 right now...what happens IF the price of BTC drops to $65k?
Will that coin still hold it's 20% premium over the BTC spot price and sell at $78k?

[henkcryptotank]

For me, collectibles dramatically reduce the spending of btc, hence they are worth the premium. In the long run, this will pay off.

GrtzTnk

Can you clarify what you mean by that?  Say you have a loaded 1 BTC collectable, are you saying it's going to be hard to spend the BTC on that coin, versus if you had 1BTC in cold storage that you can easily spend?

Yeah, exactly. As we are programmed to attach emotions and memories to objects, it will be far easier to HODL your bits, if they are locked to a physical item.

[bitcoin_heysoos]

henkcryptotank, that is a great reason to HODL unredeemed collectables!

[Cointxz]

AFAIK, premium value of token decreased if you redeemed the coin value since the coin is not intact condition. You already peeled the coin sticker when you redeemed the value inside so it’s not the same condition coin as before.

The premium valueBTC decreased significantly once you redeemed it based on my experience when I sold my redeemed and not redeemed token few years ago.

Unloaded Bitcoin coin is different case on redeemed coin though since it’s still on its intact condition.

If a 1 BTC unredeemed Casascius coin is valued at let's say $115,000 right now...what happens IF the price of BTC drops to $65k?
Will that coin still hold it's 20% premium over the BTC spot price and sell at $78k?

Great question which even myself keeps wondering on how premium valuation works since in the past we do value premium in BTC value not in fiat which means a 0.02BTC Bitcoin before is same more or less value in Bitcoin value premium right now that’s why the premium value keeps changing whenever the Bitcoin price change.

Forum collectors especially OG refer on Bitcoin value and not fiat since 1BTC today is still 1BTC in the future.

As the common practice here. It’s always the auction will dictate the premium value of your coin since there’s no fixed percentage for premiums.

[bitbollo]

This Is a question that maybe all Bitcoin collectors have at a certain point of their collectors Life
My2satsl
I would see this in another perspective.
You cannot buy (unless eBay or big auctions) such items without using btc. So you are just using your fiat (or this as a base value).
In any case you are achieving also a profit in fiat term...
It Is true that probably btc value could be bigger of the value of the item in the long term.
But its not 101% sure and probably this was more higher with early items but not anymore.
Meanwhile some of these items arent available anywhere.
At a certain point many new collectors while come to the market

[rsincognito]

Everyone here is contributing really good points thank you all for sharing. Here is my two cents. as most have noticed premiums have definitely stalled out for 1.0 BTC loaded coins, my opinion is this is only temporary as more bitcoin adoption becomes apparent. I feel that a whole new wave of collectors will come about and a large majority of these 1.0 BTC coins will be considered bragging rights to high net worth individuals down the road just like owning a McLaren and showing it off to your buddy. I do believe we will see some of these coins in some type of museum one day.  My hopes and dreams is one day the market will shift overnight, possibly with a major influencer or celebrity showing off their new Lealana / Cas coin online. Or some major news conglomerate doing a 10 minute news report story on bitcoin collectibles, also to be able to exchange value P2P with someone by passing off a collectible and not making a ledger input on the blockchain will offer a benefit to privacy imo. i’m reminded of the movie “the Italian Job,”where the main part of the story was them trying to rob a large amount of gold bricks, I’ve always wanted to see a movie come out in the future, and it be a briefcase full of physical bitcoins they are trying to rob. That would send the market crazy. everything I just described is wishful thinking and I hope it comes true. I think one of those scenarios is probably bound to happen. Now something else I’ve never shared publicly and I’m willing to share now because I’ve loaded up so heavily already, I feel that 0.01 and 0.001 loaded coins and notes are going to bring ridiculous premiums down the road, I think the most overlooked right now on the market, which is extremely undervalued is the Lealana 0.01 denomination coins and the polymerbit notes .001-.004 note denominations. You can pick one up today for anywhere between $80-$280 premium. I know for a fact these coins will be fetching several thousand dollar premiums down the road maybe even $10k-$20K. It just makes sense, think about it. We had a point where one BTC was worth $70,000 and loaded cas/lealana coins were damn near bringing $100k with premiums included, why would the same scenario not be true when btc is at $700k and  a 0.01 coin is worth $17k loaded with premium included.  My personal strategy has always been: If I buy a loaded item, I always take the premium cost amount of that item and that same day buy that same premium amount in new bitcoin and I would attach the Fiat cost of that purchase as the fiat premium cost for the life of the coin/note (if that makes sense). Example: I buy a satori .001 coins loaded for $300 when btc price is at $100k making the satori loaded amount worth $100 of btc also making the premium of the coin $200. So then I would immediately buy $200 of new btc and then catalog the satori coin in my records for the life of my ownership of the coin costing me a $200 premium. but sure I could have made more money just taking that premium purchase and not buying the collectible at all and just buying pure bitcoin yes, but again as discussed above, there’s something special about collectibles and this hobby. Thinking you can buy loaded btc collectibles with already owned btc and thinking you will be able to make a larger total fiat gain down the road is “a loosing mans game”. But at least my method has a way of “forcing you to buy more btc while growing your collection”  I guess my 2 cents just turned into 25 cents ,  rambling over. Lol ty RS

[Steeley]

imo there is no good financial case for buying the collectibles over spending the equivalent amount buying spot bitcoin. The year to year gains in bitcoin are just too strong.

you could accumulate more bitcoin by selling some collectibles purchased when BTC was high (say $50k) and then sell them when BTC is low ($20K). In this hypothetical example, .002 BTC is paid to buy an item for $100, then .005 BTC is received when sold and a buyer pays $100. The item was bought and sold for $100 fiat but .003 bitcoin is gained.