Prediction platforms - trading or betting?

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

This is so similar to trading that in fact, in some respects, it is no different from trading. What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

It is not different from trading because
In trading (crypto or forex) we are also dealing with prediction of whether price will go to the direction we expected so that we can make profit, we pick the option of buy or sell depending on our analysis and where we have determined that the price will move to next. Same in the prediction market or platform, we also have two options to pick from, either Yes or No.

The only notable difference here is that, in the actual forex trading, you are predicting for the price of a particular fiat pair (example: EURO/USD) to go up or down and for crypto too, you are to predict if the price of a pair (BTC/USDT) will go up or down, but for the gambling prediction platform  what you are prediction is not fiat pairs neither crypto pairs but you are predicting on the outcome of events such as social events, political events, sports event, etc.

[iv4n]

It's always gambling... I am talking since ever that trading is gambling, to be more precise, it's one of the gambling games, and I guess we can put it in the skill-based group of games. I will just drop it here once again:

Take risky action in the hope of a desired result.

Polymarket is unique for offering a lot of markets, and while some of them are fine and normal, I guess we can say that some markets are a bit crazy (or a lot?). But in any case, we can buy Yes or No, we are betting on something to win or lose. In any case, we are taking risky action in the hope of the desired result...

First of all, Polymarket does not have classic bookmaker odds, but simply probabilities of a particular outcome of an event.

Like Freebitcoin, but their markets are only about sports.

[Davidvictorson]

What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

I want to think that prediction platforms are both a combination of trading and betting. However, I think that they have more of the trading principles that the betting principles. In addition to this, they also have the UMA's Data Verification Mechanism which also works on from what I understand the principles of mediation. There is more of buying and selling and also watching the market which are more of trading activities.

[Peanutswar]

In the last few years, prediction platforms have become more popular than ever and in some ways they have even begun to compete with sports betting sites. Everyone knows the prediction platform Polymarket, which gained particular popularity during the last presidential elections. However, not everyone pays attention to the fact that the mechanics of betting on this prediction platform are quite different from classic bookmakers. First of all, Polymarket does not have classic bookmaker odds, but simply probabilities of a particular outcome of an event. By the way, this is even more convenient than bookmaker odds. The second feature that is worth paying attention to is that working on the platform is a kind of synthesis of trading and betting. You must buy a Yes or No token for one probability, and then sell it for another in order to make a profit. This is so similar to trading that in fact, in some respects, it is no different from trading. What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

Ive been particular with the percentage of betting since I'm into sports betting since then and before there's a percentage ratio of the winners if you bet with the winner of the game and then you will see the odds on the lower category of the bet, like first 10 scores, card, goals and etc. Also there's a community chat right there people can leave their message. On the second game like yes or no seems doesn't familiar into me but wit the terms of trading vs gambling yet they have the same concept predict the winner and the next move of the market, but they are different of aspect how you will look the data, in gambling you are using the previous data and history for both teams, in trading you are looking with the market possible move.

[Gozie51]

This is so similar to trading that in fact, in some respects, it is no different from trading. What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

I don't think prediction platform or betting platform works like trading. Betting is just the outcome of certain occurrence. Like in football you bet for 1, 2 ,x, 1x , 2x etc of which such expectation is either win or lose for the gambler just like polymarket where the outcome of election is put on bet for either Trump to win or lose but for trading, it is more different. The actions of speculators, traders emotion etc can cause an unexpected fluctuation that will change every direction in the market. They are not the same occurrence.

[Solosanz]

It's betting.

I agree with above users it's betting since you're either lost all of your money, break even or win, there's no more than that.

Even both of them are depends on big people/institutions, like when there's a good news about Bitcoin, Bitcoin price will rise, which make the traders earn a good amount of money. At the same time if someone bet Bitcoin price reach $100K, they also make money.

Betting is harder than trading, I think.

[Odogwu-Blockchain]

What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

I want to think that prediction platforms are both a combination of trading and betting. However, I think that they have more of the trading principles that the betting principles. In addition to this, they also have the UMA's Data Verification Mechanism which also works on from what I understand the principles of mediation. There is more of buying and selling and also watching the market which are more of trading activities.

I just placed a bet on a prediction market right now on futuur trading site, the prediction says,

Will Bitcoin price hit $150,000 before Dec 30, 2025.
I placed Yes but it says I sell the token "Ohms" used by the platform for betting, I'm just suppose to bet with this token but why am I selling it, I'm confused about this.

[Hispo]

... What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

I believe it is a combination of both, to be honest, it is about betting because you are putting money at stake which you don't even know you will be able to recover or multiply, while at the same time you are also required to seek for the best timing to sell or buy those tokens in order to make a profit on your prediction.
It is a little bit more complicated than the usual bookies and market makers we see in casinos and betting stores and retires the bettor to invest more attention on the evolution of chances and odds.

I have never used polymarket or other prediction platforms, for me it is already enough to handle normal bookies on casinos.

[Shadiq]

I have never entered the prediction market like this so I have little knowledge about it in general. Since this subject does not carry the main characteristics of either betting or trading, it is very difficult to call it a trade or gambling. Since the subject is predicted based on an event, I will count this as a bet. Everyone has different opinions on this. For me, trading is buying at a certain moment in the market and selling at a certain moment. So let who will be the president in the future or what will he do be involved in the bet even if it does not carry the characteristics of a bet.

[sunsilk]

They're also betting and that's why we put our money and will have to wait for the actual result until we win or lose.

There is still a belief about gambling and trading that has potential similarities and we cannot deny those facts. But with platforms like polymarket, it's an actual betting site.

So, whatever we do from there is considered as betting.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

I want to think that prediction platforms are both a combination of trading and betting. However, I think that they have more of the trading principles that the betting principles. In addition to this, they also have the UMA's Data Verification Mechanism which also works on from what I understand the principles of mediation. There is more of buying and selling and also watching the market which are more of trading activities.

That's true,mate, I said that the notable difference between them is that you are predicting about the price movement of crypto and Fiat in trading while for the prediction platform, you are speculating on the outcome of events. Probably they would add crypto price prediction later on, if at all they have not already added it.

[boyptc]

I have never entered the prediction market like this so I have little knowledge about it in general. Since this subject does not carry the main characteristics of either betting or trading, it is very difficult to call it a trade or gambling.

Nope. It's not that difficult to call it either of it because it's classified as gambling, therefore betting = gambling.

OP's example is polymarket and they're described as the largest prediction market. There's still the understanding of many that they're not a gambling platform but they really are.

Despite the different types of events that they're putting in there, you're betting against other bettors which is what they call predictors too.

[cande86]

Nope. It's not that difficult to call it either of it because it's classified as gambling, therefore betting = gambling.

OP's example is polymarket and they're described as the largest prediction market. There's still the understanding of many that they're not a gambling platform but they really are.

Despite the different types of events that they're putting in there, you're betting against other bettors which is what they call predictors too.

No, it is not that difficult to define, since in theory it is classified as gambling, so betting = gambling, very easy indeed even for someone like me.

The example of Polymarket described as the largest prediction market. In the end, predictions are bets, right?

[Zigabel]

Predictions platforms are still betting,  with trading you make your money by picking if the market is going to buy or sell and you make money if the market goes the way you chose . This isn't the same in the case of the Predictions platforms,  there you have to purchase a yes or No ticket of which any one you buy isn't giving you profit just yet, you have to proceed to get an event upon which you place your ticket for the outcome of the even to be a yes or no of before you hope to gwt a profit,  so you can have your ticket and still not on the path to making profits yet until you sell it out by placing it on an event but with trading picking  a yes or no is Al you need you don't needy to further predict an even or firstly buy a blank yes or no ticket which is in its entirety gambling.

It doesn't sit well with me when people try to making gambling look like it's same thing as trading because the have got obvious difference that sets them apart without much doubt is carefully checked both professionally and ethically.

[Strongkored]

What do you think, are prediction platforms trading or betting?

In my opinion, it is still gambling because you still have to guess or predict no matter how the odds are calculated or how it works.
Polymarket is just one of several prediction sites that exist and polymarket is more famous and successful than other prediction sites because previously there was one prediction site that also tried to promote here but was less successful and when promoting they call themselves a gambling site so that could also be one of the reasons that prediction sites are still gambling not trading.

[boyptc]

Nope. It's not that difficult to call it either of it because it's classified as gambling, therefore betting = gambling.

OP's example is polymarket and they're described as the largest prediction market. There's still the understanding of many that they're not a gambling platform but they really are.

Despite the different types of events that they're putting in there, you're betting against other bettors which is what they call predictors too.

No, it is not that difficult to define, since in theory it is classified as gambling, so betting = gambling, very easy indeed even for someone like me.

The example of Polymarket described as the largest prediction market. In the end, predictions are bets, right?

Right, they're bets too.

Because you'll have to put money and if you're right with that prediction, you win and some other guy loses his money for you.

It's the same as trading but don't get it wrong with how the actual market for trading goes and for betting too.

[Negotiation]

I think whether prediction platforms are trading or gambling depends on the person's perspective. Everyone has a different perspective on trading and it can be a valid thought for many. If such trading is done without analysis strategy and risk management simply trying to profit from luck or market volatility it can become like gambling trading with good strategy and market analysis is generally considered an investment or business activity. Trading where prediction platform strategies are based on planned analysis and a constructive idea of ​​long term market trends.

[danherbias07]

IMHO, it's like a trading-like industry. But because there are events where they also put sports and elections, it does sound like betting, too. It's not different from predicting the outcome against your friends. You cannot really make a bet unless someone approves your deal. Just like last year's NBA Finals, I have been having a hard time getting a +10 handicap in favor of the Mavs from any of my friends. They all want just a direct win or lose, but it's too obvious that the Celtics are going to win most of the games because of their roster strength. It's not gambling yet because the deal cannot happen.