El Salvador's bitcoin

[GreatArkansas]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

I'm curious if this kind of bet could be influenced by an insider, like inside trading.
For example, any staff or people related to the government, specifically in the same department where these Bitcoin purchases by El Salvador will always know the plan, especially the future plan, or even close to their president. It can be easy money if you know the result of this bet.

[maydna]

I am not familiar with kalshi and polymarket so I don't bet on that. If Bitcoin price increases high, they can just have $1 billion or even more by the end of 2025. But if not, they will not hit that. All will depend on the market situation because if the crypto market is down, they can not reach that. They can hope that the market will increase and Bitcoin gets the bull run so they can book that profit. We will see what happens to their Bitcoin investment so it is interesting to wait for the result.

[Odohu]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

Polymarket may be setting themselves up for some big losses with this type of bets that can easily be manipulated. Assuming the odd for El Salvador meeting that target is higher than the odd of them not meeting that target, the government of El Salvador can just speed of things and meet the target after betting heavily on these platforms through their friends and allies. On the other hand, if the odd of not meeting the target is higher, the government might just decide to keep all their Bitcoin accumulation to January 2026 and then bet heavily on failing to meet the target. I know either of these will not happen but listing events that can be manipulated is not a good one for me.

[Alex077]

 Looks to me like the billion mark is well within reach.... with 6,282 BTC in the stash and spot around $110k, they’re already stacking nearly $692M, just a hop away.
They don’t even need to stack more coins to cross the 1Billion mark — all it takes is BTC pushing up to around 159.2k. And some talking heads are even calling 180k–220k… which wouldn’t shock any of us who’ve been around since the $3 pizza days.

So yeah, those Kalshi and Polymarket bets.... not degen lotto tickets, more like a legit wager if you ask me.

[Su-asa]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

I'm curious if this kind of bet could be influenced by an insider, like inside trading.
For example, any staff or people related to the government, specifically in the same department where these Bitcoin purchases by El Salvador will always know the plan, especially the future plan, or even close to their president. It can be easy money if you know the result of this bet.

That is true mate, such people that are close to knowing what the plans of the president in El Salvador will be, whether to purchase more Bitcoin to make it $1,000,000,000 will always be the winner or even some random bettors out there. Actually to me I dine really know if they can make it up $1B in 2025 because the year is almost rounding up as we are in August already and August is almost coming to an end, so I don't believe if El Salvador can achieve that this year as $300M is a huge sum of money.

[bias]

Looks to me like the billion mark is well within reach.... with 6,282 BTC in the stash and spot around $110k, they’re already stacking nearly $692M, just a hop away.
They don’t even need to stack more coins to cross the 1Billion mark — all it takes is BTC pushing up to around 159.2k. And some talking heads are even calling 180k–220k… which wouldn’t shock any of us who’ve been around since the $3 pizza days.

Reaching $1 billion from ~$700 million is a 30% difference; you can't say that is just a hoop away. Neither is it easy to see our beloved King climbing @160k. Don't misunderstand me,  I'm not saying that it isn't possible or that it can't be done in the upcoming months/years. I'm just saying that it's not as easy as others present it. But this is a bet, so anyone can choose whatever they think will happen.😉

[Alex077]

Looks to me like the billion mark is well within reach.... with 6,282 BTC in the stash and spot around $110k, they’re already stacking nearly $692M, just a hop away.
They don’t even need to stack more coins to cross the 1Billion mark — all it takes is BTC pushing up to around 159.2k. And some talking heads are even calling 180k–220k… which wouldn’t shock any of us who’ve been around since the $3 pizza days.

Reaching $1 billion from ~$700 million is a 30% difference; you can't say that is just a hoop away. Neither is it easy to see our beloved King climbing @160k. Don't misunderstand me,  I'm not saying that it isn't possible or that it can't be done in the upcoming months/years. I'm just saying that it's not as easy as others present it. But this is a bet, so anyone can choose whatever they think will happen.😉

I get what you’re saying, but I’m not throwing out 160k just for fun — that number is backed by a lot of analysts. For example, network economist Timothy Peterson has a model predicting Bitcoin could hit 160k by the end of 2025 based on historical Q4 price action.

He points out that in about 70% of cases, Bitcoin rallies in the four months leading up to Christmas, with an average gain of 44%. So we’re looking at a solid 70%+ probability of hitting 160k before year-end — and El Salvador reaching the $1B mark.

[bias]

I get what you’re saying, but I’m not throwing out 160k just for fun — that number is backed by a lot of analysts. For example, network economist Timothy Peterson has a model predicting Bitcoin could hit 160k by the end of 2025 based on historical Q4 price action.

He points out that in about 70% of cases, Bitcoin rallies in the four months leading up to Christmas, with an average gain of 44%. So we’re looking at a solid 70%+ probability of hitting 160k before year-end — and El Salvador reaching the $1B mark.

I'm sure that you didn't throw it out of luck. This situation has indeed been historically proven correct. However, we can't dismiss the fact that the upcoming months will be different since we are living in different times and a different crypto era. Of course, personally, I want this scenario to be true and BTC hits more than 160k by the end of the year. But I'm a bit skeptical to bet on the "Yes", that's all.