Bitcoin price betting on prediction platforms.

[bitbollo]

In the past it was really common to "gamble" with binary options.
The problem was behind most of platforms that they were just tricking the price and casually get people liquidated with flash movements (most of the time happening ONLY in the gambling platform).
Nowadays, I will look more on these platforms as an hedge/insurance on my trade. With the right strategy this could become really profitable and a clear advantage.

[SmartGold01]

I have never tried it out on any prediction market but as the case maybe why don't so much like such is that I don't know if they would have features like trading tools, I mean after one places their predictions and seeing that the market is going correctly or against them can they decide to exit the market seeing that it's going against them or must likely wait for the estimate time for the market to end or what? I really want to have a pre-knowledge on how it works.

If they allow people to come back and edit their prediction after they’ve seen that the market when checked won’t go as analyzed earlier, or can exist before their time elapse when price already reached what they predicted, I don’t think they will be making money from it. It is for a very short time frame, so it’s very likely you can’t change it and a timeframe will also be given when your prediction can elapse, since you can’t be there all day or waiting for a particular time to see what the price will be. I haven’t come across that before but if a longer timeframe will be given, I think you’ll be the one to pick what you think the price will be at a particular time of the day, not sure if price range will be accepted because if they don’t factor it well and accept price range predictions, they may lose if the price range is allowed to be a bit wide from each other.

That is true and they wouldn't be making any profits from their market and when it's leaved that way people can make wrong predictions and that belongs to them immediately one loses their predictions. Although for me, they could have made it a bit more flexible as I believe that there are options which people could like optioning for.
But if such is being implemented then it becomes a good market for the gambler and a bad one for them, already as we know gamblers usually do lose in while gambling and the casino site do make profits so they wouldn't want what would make them lose heavily instead the opposite should be incuring such lose which is from the gamblers.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Although this has something in common with trading, I believe that Bitcoin price betting on prediction platforms is an independent type of betting. Moreover, this is a wonderful type of betting that combines, on the one hand, the ability to analyze the chart (because different rates form the chart), and, on the other hand, it is similar to classic betting, because the betting phenomenon is preserved here. Like classic betting, there is an expiration time when the platform determines the final outcome of the event.
I invite everyone to discuss current Bitcoin price betting on different prediction platforms. First of all, these are the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms, as the most capitalized. I think this will help us combine betting and trading and better understand the direction of the Bitcoin price.

Well, I agree, predicting the future price direction of bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is the same thing as betting because it's something that we are not very sure of, we are only betting on it to happen which in reality, will happen or not happen, when it happens, we win, and when it doesn't happen as we predicted, we lose, that is gambling.

Personally, I love the price prediction game because it's a skill based type of game where one can learn how to read the chart in order to be able to predict its future direction and bet on that wisely, I would be happy to see bitcoin and cryptocurrency price prediction game get listed on all modern and classic online casinos.
Because so far, I think it's only Rollbit casino that have such feature as betting on the future price of Bitcoin and some other selected cryptocurrencies.

[Julien_Olynpic]

I will duplicate the entry from the strat-post here. Pay attention to it, since I offered there for discussion a specific forecast for the price of bitcoin and the corresponding rates on the Kalshi platform. Perhaps you will find similar forecasts on the Polimarket platform or other similar platforms. Let's discuss specific rates on the price of bitcoin and not clutter the topic with general reasoning.
   Also note that betting on prediction platforms differs from classic betting. It is something between betting and trading. Also, sometimes several components are often combined in one bet and you need to choose one of these several competing outcomes. Let's say the current bet in the start post suggests determining in which autumn month Bitcoin will reach the mark of 125 thousand dollars.

[crwth]

I think it's the same as perpetual futures because you are trying to predict whether the price will rise or fall. Essentially, removing the trading tools will result in a more gambling approach. For Polymarket, it's something different, for sure, because you're checking at a single point in time and then determining who the winner is based on that. It's pretty different, and the liquidity of the trades would also be different.

[Tmoonz]

I didn't know that they could actually predict the price of Bitcoin in casino platforms, but this doesn't make it similar to trading though it's gambling and I don't think it's more profitable to use gambling platforms... everything that would be available for you to choose would be options that suit the market and not the gambler because that's how casinos work, you can only win when you get lucky and you can't always rely on luck

It didn’t sound well to me. It is a sign of disrespect to Bitcoin to me if it is being related to gambling to the extent of betting on its price prediction. I know all these are attempts to call more people to adopt Bitcoin and to as well share good news about Bitcoin, but I don’t like it when people know Bitcoin in gambling or casino platforms.

How will the nature of the game looks like; if it is been designed to predict the exact value of Bitcoin at some time, then many people will not get money from that because predicting exact price of Bitcoin at a particular time will be very difficult, but if it is in a range of some prices, then it can be easier.

I have the same sentiment with with you about this but comes the question, do you think those gambling with Bitcoin in this regard doesn't know about the potential risk of what they are doing? I know what they are doing is some worth way of belittling Bitcoin but on the second thought I don't fucking give attention to whatever anyone decides to do, gambling price of Bitcoin in a casino is not a calculated risk because the chances of lossing your money is extensively high and if anyone feels they want to give a try they should go ahead is their choice which of course they will surely have a story to tell hahaha.

[₿itcoin]

I think it's the same as perpetual futures because you are trying to predict whether the price will rise or fall. Essentially, removing the trading tools will result in a more gambling approach. For Polymarket, it's something different, for sure, because you're checking at a single point in time and then determining who the winner is based on that. It's pretty different, and the liquidity of the trades would also be different.

Perpetual futures present with authorisation you to betting on price movement without any kind of expiration date, somethin like an ongoing rolling or similar. Lets talk about Julien_Olynpic's Kalshi & Polymarkets! afaik they are based on fixed outcomes at a given point in time, right? exactlly direct binary bets, you could not compare it to leveraged trades at any aspect. Kalshi is entierly regulated by CFTC entrepot, yeah they lets you pick up event contracts where yes = $ 1, no = $ 0, for US based users it is faultlessly valid. if you look over Polymarkets it put forward a crypto based, also come up with my favorite feature "decentralization", and offering 0% fee, so it is real time market but with regulatory gray zone. So yeah,, both are enlightening however they are frankly unique beasts in the prediction area.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Please note that here I propose to discuss specific bets on the price of Bitcoin. Please do not pollute the topic with only general reasoning.
***
So, at the moment (08/16/2025) on the Kalshi platform the first bet is:
- When will Bitcoin reach the price of 125 thousand dollars?
- By September 2025 - 43%;
- By October 2025 - 65%;
- By November 2025 75% probability.

From my analysis, I believe that Bitcoin will even get to $125k dollars this month because it has already gotten to $124,472 and what we are seeing now is a correctional movement which will come back to break another structure and give us another new ATH. So, if am to take this bet, I am not seeing the correct option which is supposed to be "August." So I won't take the bet because I will definitely lose the bet since Bitcoin is going to cross $125k even before September. I won't take the bet. I guess they didn't include August since we are already in the month and they also know that Bitcoin will cross the amount by this month.

[Fiatless]

I will duplicate the entry from the strat-post here. Pay attention to it, since I offered there for discussion a specific forecast for the price of bitcoin and the corresponding rates on the Kalshi platform.

Another prediction from Kalshi platform is when will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Before March 2026= 46%
Before February 2026= 44%
Before January 2026= 37%

From my analysis, Bitcoin might hit $150k before January. Since it has reached an ATH of $124,000, if the US Feds reduce the interest rate and more Bitcoin flows into the ETF, we might get to that price before the year runs out.

[Alex077]

...I invite everyone to discuss current Bitcoin price betting on different prediction platforms. First of all, these are the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms, as the most capitalized. I think this will help us combine betting and trading and better understand the direction of the Bitcoin price....

  Interesting topic, OP...++

I also see Bitcoin prediction markets more as a hybrid between trading and gambling. On the one hand, you use TA/FA skills and sentiment analysis to make decisions, but on the other hand, the ,,expiration date,, element really makes it feel closer to betting markets than classical long/short trading.
....As for Kalshi’s BTC > $125k contracts:

--September 2025 -- 43% – seems quite optimistic to me, considering current macro headwinds and U.S. monetary policy data still shaking the market.
--October -- 65% – that looks like the market pricing in some possible ETF inflows or halving momentum finally showing up in Q4.
----November -- 75% – personally I think that’s a bit overheated. Historically, Bitcoin doesn’t always follow the “perfect post-halving curve.” Add to that geopolitics and regulatory pressures, and I wouldn’t give it 3-in-4 odds so easily.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Another prediction from Kalshi platform is when will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Before March 2026= 46%
Before February 2026= 44%
Before January 2026= 37%

From my analysis, Bitcoin might hit $150k before January. Since it has reached an ATH of $124,000, if the US Feds reduce the interest rate and more Bitcoin flows into the ETF, we might get to that price before the year runs out.

From this prediction, I will also bet on the same option you selected which is for Bitcoin to get to $150k before January, already the market is not showing any signs of huge dump and what I can see is that the price is trying to continue moving up and I believe that it will definitely surge past the current ATH and might get to $130k which might just take between now and November for the price to reach $150k.

[Alex077]

  Interesting to see how Kalshi and Polymarket differ a bit on their Bitcoin price forecasts. Polymarket is much more detailed and shows very bullish sentiment:

--$125k — 85%
--$130k — 73%
--$140k — 52%
--$150k — 38%
--$170k — 20%
--$200k — 11%
--$250k — 5%
---$1M — 2%

So according to Polymarket, hitting $125k this year looks almost guaranteed, and even $130–140k is being treated as pretty realistic. Kalshi doesn’t go into that much detail, but their 75% probability for $125k by November lines up reasonably well with what Polymarket is showing.
 https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025

[kriminall]

Basically, it's literally gambling when you do it inside the casino platform, especially there are no other tools there to analyze the price of Bitcoin, you just need to bet if it's going up or down 

But I am curious, what if you do analyze the chart/price outside of the casino platform, let's say on Tradingview, to predict the next price action, and bet it inside of casino platform? Is that still gambling or trading?

For it to be considered gambling, I think there needs to be another possibility. It should be possible to profit from a good prediction. However, of course, you shouldn't invest too much money in it. Because if you're confident in your prediction, it seems more logical to consider it in trading rather than betting. For example, if you predict Bitcoin will reach $120,000 in a month, Bitcoins purchased for less than $120,000 will always yield a profit.