I guess with each new ATH it's in price discovery mode, so it's worth is in the eye of the beholder?
the market speculation is one layer.. however there is real $$ value holding it up at a certain level below the market
imagine the cheapest most efficient way to mine bitcoin on the entire planet.
no one can mine any cheaper
no one will thus want to sell any cheaper.. thus this becomes the base value support of bitcoin.
above this is the market speculation
at this moment using current gen asics the base value sits at $76k, and speculated upto $124k so far
but currently sits on the market at $109k
now if you want a reasonable association with the most possible peak it could speculate upto right now
look at the most inefficient mining cost, this is where everyone on the planet can mine for less, which is about $420k,
meaning no one will want to buy for more in a FOMO situation.
this theory has been tested in the last few ATH of the last 12 years and held true. the market speculates between the tops and bottoms of the efficiency window of mining costs worldwide
recent
peak
$0 v $420k
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now
no one can predict the price on the daily.
no one can predict the precise time or day of the next top ATH of this cycle, but going by the last few cycles. its been around 1.5 years after a halving, thus not yet have we experienced this cycles true speculative test of the top of this cycle, but its coming soon in the next few months
but we can atleast be strongly sure the base value support of the market is above $76k and top last resistance is $420k right now
everything inbetween is speculation
if the hashrate or mining cost efficiency/inefficiency changes, this window of speculation changes too, so keep that in mind