Trading based on "Rich List"? Which Wallets are whales and which aren't

[adaseb]

Does anybody here base a trade on whether there are many large holders on the "rich list".

I have been doing some research lately but I am having a hard time determining whether a "rich list" wallet actually belongs to a whale or an exchange.

Exchanges usually send a large amount of coins to cold storage which might appear as a whale but its actually not.

One way I determine if its an actual person is if the withdraw ends in *.98, because *.02 is the fee Bittrex charges for withdraws. So if somebody withdraws 1000 Coins, 999.98 will get deposited.

For Example on CRYPT COIN,
http://chainz.cryptoid.info/crypt/address.dws?EiEifriBwFb3D4i7euoaJz4pZbVaAH3Tzf.htm

He first made a withdraw of 100 Coins, probably to test his wallet and then made a large withdraw. About 100 BTC worth.

However if you look at when he made the withdraw.99.8 Coins, the change went to multiple wallets which leads me to believe this might be an exchange.


Another example is,

http://chainz.cryptoid.info/crypt/address.dws?EzjNFC5B5EjUSBshD6aMi5NkJr1CybQQFY.htm

Looks like he bought 55,000 Coins because 54999.98 was depositted but if you look at the "Guestimmated Wallet", it has 500 addresses or so. Hardly unlikely this is a whale but instead might be an exchange.

Any experts in this topic?

[arbitrage001]

Exchange are whales even if it is not their own coin.

Anyone of them going bust or shut down involuntary will have huge ramification for bitcoin.


This is probably what you are looking for:
http://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Addresses that don't have activity for a while should considered lost wallet.


And you can't "trade" based on movement of the coin. As trading itself only change the database record.

[burnettm]

One way I determine if its an actual person is if the withdraw ends in *.98, because *.02 is the fee Bittrex charges for withdraws. So if somebody withdraws 1000 Coins, 999.98 will get deposited.

That'll never work because it assumes that everyone withdraws a whole number of coins.

You'd have to figure out what the addresses are of the exchange wallets, and look for transactions to/from them. But this will also pick up people who are simply using exchanges as a way to obfuscate/launder coins via off-chain transactions.

[Harley997]

One way I determine if its an actual person is if the withdraw ends in *.98, because *.02 is the fee Bittrex charges for withdraws. So if somebody withdraws 1000 Coins, 999.98 will get deposited.

That'll never work because it assumes that everyone withdraws a whole number of coins.

You'd have to figure out what the addresses are of the exchange wallets, and look for transactions to/from them. But this will also pick up people who are simply using exchanges as a way to obfuscate/launder coins via off-chain transactions.

Most people do not even have a whole number of bitcoin. The only real group of people that would have a whole number of bitcoin would be solo miners who do not include any TX in their blocks

[adaseb]

I am talking about alt-coins not BTC.

I know looking in BTC richlists is pointless.