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June 15, 2014, 04:22:57 PM |
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Bitcoin:
$580 is the bottom. The reasons are as follows:
1. The price has moved sideways at $580 in this round.
2. The left shoulder is at $580, and there are few profit taking there.
The price falls greatly at foreign market and its shape is hard to be analyzed.
When the price falls, lots of people scramble to sell their coins. In the end there is few wave of selling. Most of this wave of selling are coin hoarding miners. The miners can be divided into two: the first are those sell coins when they have mined them, and these are a stable selling pressure. The second are those hoard coins, and they will cause price dive. They are the same from the total revenue point of view.
There are two bad news recently. One is that the computing power in GHASH mining pool has reached over 50%. The other is the Bitcoin auction by FBI.
The effect of GHASH is the key factor in such delicate balance circumstance. It is not a big deed, and just be used. It’s OK when Bitcoin price falls.
The effect of FBI will help guide the price. The auction price will be not necessarily below the market price. What will the price be when all 28000 coins over current market price are bought. If the price does not fall, the price will be lower than market price. Now the market price fell, and the auction price will be higher than market price. Another effect is that a few of wave of buying now stop buying in the open market, and they are waiting for Bitcoin auction. So few wave of buying in the market will cause Bitcoin price down. When auction has ended and more fund returned to market, Bitcoin will surge again.
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