Bitcoin Forum
October 04, 2024, 08:58:18 AM
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
News
: Latest Bitcoin Core release:
27.1
[
Torrent
]
Home
Help
Search
Login
Register
More
Bitcoin Forum
>
Local
>
中文 (Chinese)
>
媒体
>
比特币的价值达到50000美元是否天方夜谭?
Pages: [
1
]
« previous topic
next topic »
Print
Author
Topic: 比特币的价值达到50000美元是否天方夜谭? (Read 825 times)
Landon
(OP)
Jr. Member
Offline
Activity: 59
Merit: 10
比特币的价值达到50000美元是否天方夜谭?
July 08, 2014, 02:03:49 AM
#1
比特币的价值达到50000美元是否天方夜谭?
World Bitcoin Network刚刚发布了一个新的比特币价值模型。首先,我要指出这只是一个模型,没有模型能准确表示任何一种货币在未来某个时间点将会值多少钱。然而,模型可以告诉我们如何确定价格和其影响因素,也可以让我们了解因素变量并查看其效果。
今年2月份,《金融时报》收到一封预测比特币价值将达到5万美元的电子邮件。他们的回应是提醒人们华尔街交易员正在使用的价值模型:
“虽然电子邮件中比特币价值50000美元至少可以说是不精确的,但是这是一个起点。一个更严格的数学模型集成需求预测和一些或成或败突发事件的概率不是不可能的,它以各种形式存在于不同投资者的硬盘驱动器中。”
比特币已经被视为一项资产,在过去五年表现优于世界上的所有其他资产。但是,我们无法肯定地预测比特币未来的价值,因为世界上几乎所有东西都可以影响比特币价格,这些因素只是很小的一部分。
其中一个最重要的因素是交易量(任何时间点的比特币交易量),6月29日显示有50577笔比特币交易。我们要记住,人们从一个钱包到另一个钱包给自己发送比特币,结果将会显示出来。我们必须谨慎地使用交易量数据。
另一个影响比特币价值的因素是市场的积极性。如果人们看到比特币的好消息,他们将购买一些,如果他们看到坏消息,他们往往会卖出。当中国当局指示中国人民银行应防止加密货币对市场的消极作用,这让比特币的价格降了下来;而当Tiger.com面世,比特币的价值显著上升。市场积极性变化导致人们选择卖空,而其他人看到价格下降买入比特币,这导致了波动性问题。波动性是人们选择购买和出售比特币所造成的。波动性是预测比特币价格的一个重要因素。请记住,任何货币必须可以交易和有储藏价值。波动性货币储存价值较差,这也让交易者接受比特币价格优势因素,以其允许波动,这是交易者选择用比特币而不是美元支付的要点之一。
预测未来比特币价值的另一个重要因素是周转率或货币单位在一个固定时间内使用的次数。现在,周转率越低,比特币价格更高。请记住,如果周转率高的话,那意味着将必须进行多项交易以提高总交易量,并以法定货币计算。美元的交易量为7,很难估计一个比特币的周转率,但可能是在50至100之间。
我们必须认识到的下一个因素是供给。现在,有不到1300万个比特币在市场上流通,但其中许多可能会丢失,有一些被持有,所以没有用于交易。我们谈论流动性,一项资产可以被买入或卖出而不会影响资产价值的难易程度。流动性的特点是高水平的交易量。现在,如果我们接受1300个万比特币,如果我们假设至少有100万个比特币丢失,我们必须再看看剩下的1200万比特币,并假定它们大部分都被投机者持有,这些比特币是流动的,那么我们花费和接受付款的货币另一方面也是流动的。
黄金有很强的储存价值,比特币的价值可以是多少呢?越多越好!
多少电子商务可以使用比特币?越多越好!
全球货币供应量可以使用多少比特币?越多越好!
黑市以及汇款,越多越好! 比特币开采的数量越多,单个比特币的价值就越低。
看看你的想法是否会影响比特币的未来价格,它将达到5万美元或100万美元?你决定!
btcshop
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
Re: 比特币的价值达到50000美元是否天方夜谭?
July 08, 2014, 02:07:48 AM
#2
预测一下今年的最高价吧,BTC大概在3800美元附近,人民币是2.4万一个BTC
Pages: [
1
]
Print
Bitcoin Forum
>
Local
>
中文 (Chinese)
>
媒体
>
比特币的价值达到50000美元是否天方夜谭?
« previous topic
next topic »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Bitcoin
-----------------------------
=> Bitcoin Discussion
===> Legal
===> Press
===> Meetups
===> Important Announcements
=> Development & Technical Discussion
===> Wallet software
=====> Electrum
=====> Bitcoin Wallet for Android
=====> BitcoinJ
=====> Armory
=====> Mycelium
=====> Hardware wallets
=> Mining
===> Mining support
===> Pools
===> Mining software (miners)
===> Hardware
=====> Group buys
===> Mining speculation
=> Bitcoin Technical Support
=> Project Development
-----------------------------
Economy
-----------------------------
=> Economics
===> Speculation
=> Marketplace
===> Goods
=====> Computer hardware
=====> Digital goods
=======> Invites & Accounts
=====> Collectibles
===> Services
===> Currency exchange
===> Gambling
=====> Games and rounds
=====> Investor-based games
=====> Gambling discussion
===> Lending
=====> Long-term offers
===> Securities
===> Auctions
===> Service Announcements
=====> Micro Earnings
===> Service Discussion
=====> Web Wallets
=====> Exchanges
=> Trading Discussion
===> Scam Accusations
===> Reputation
-----------------------------
Other
-----------------------------
=> Meta
===> New forum software
===> Bitcoin Wiki
=> Politics & Society
=> Beginners & Help
=> Off-topic
=> Serious discussion
===> Ivory Tower
=> Archival
===> Корзина
===> CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware
===> Chinese students
===> Obsolete (buying)
===> Obsolete (selling)
===> MultiBit
-----------------------------
Alternate cryptocurrencies
-----------------------------
=> Altcoin Discussion
=> Announcements (Altcoins)
===> Tokens (Altcoins)
=> Mining (Altcoins)
===> Pools (Altcoins)
=> Marketplace (Altcoins)
===> Service Announcements (Altcoins)
===> Service Discussion (Altcoins)
===> Bounties (Altcoins)
=> Speculation (Altcoins)
-----------------------------
Local
-----------------------------
=> العربية (Arabic)
===> العملات البديلة (Altcoins)
=====> النقاشات
===> إستفسارات و أسئلة المبتدئين
===> التعدين
===> النقاشات الأخرى
===> منصات التبادل
=> Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian)
===> Marketplace (Bahasa Indonesia)
===> Mining (Bahasa Indonesia)
===> Altcoins (Bahasa Indonesia)
===> Trading dan Spekulasi
===> Ekonomi, Politik, dan Budaya
===> Topik Lainnya
=> Español (Spanish)
===> Mercado y Economía
=====> Servicios
=====> Trading y especulación
===> Hardware y Minería
===> Esquina Libre
===> Mercadillo
=====> Mexico
=====> Argentina
=====> España
=====> Centroamerica y Caribe
===> Primeros pasos y ayuda
===> Altcoins (criptomonedas alternativas)
=====> Minería de altcoins
=====> Servicios
=====> Tokens (Español)
=> 中文 (Chinese)
===> 跳蚤市场
===> 山寨币
===> 媒体
===> 挖矿
===> 离题万里
=> Hrvatski (Croatian)
===> Trgovina
===> Altcoins (Hrvatski)
=====> Announcements (Hrvatski)
===> Off-topic (Hrvatski)
=> Deutsch (German)
===> Anfänger und Hilfe
===> Mining (Deutsch)
===> Trading und Spekulation
===> Projektentwicklung
===> Off-Topic (Deutsch)
===> Treffen
===> Presse
===> Altcoins (Deutsch)
=====> Announcements (Deutsch)
===> Marktplatz
=====> Auktionen
=====> Suche
=====> Biete
=> Ελληνικά (Greek)
===> Αγορά
===> Mining Discussion (Ελληνικά)
===> Altcoins (Ελληνικά)
=====> Altcoin Announcements (Ελληνικά)
=====> Altcoin Mining (Ελληνικά)
=> עברית (Hebrew)
=> Français
===> Actualité et News
===> Débutants
===> Discussions générales et utilisation du Bitcoin
===> Mining et Hardware
===> Économie et spéculation
===> Place de marché
=====> Échanges
=====> Produits et services
=====> Petites annonces
===> Le Bitcoin et la loi
===> Wiki, documentation et traduction
===> Développement et technique
===> Vos sites et projets
===> Hors-sujet
===> Altcoins (Français)
=====> Annonces
=> India
===> Mining (India)
===> Marketplace (India)
===> Regional Languages (India)
===> Press & News from India
===> Alt Coins (India)
===> Buyer/ Seller Reputations (India)
===> Off-Topic (India)
=> Italiano (Italian)
===> Guide (Italiano)
===> Progetti
===> Discussioni avanzate e sviluppo
===> Trading, analisi e speculazione
===> Mercato
=====> Mercato valute
=====> Beni
=====> Servizi
=====> Esercizi commerciali
=====> Hardware/Mining (Italiano)
=====> Gambling (Italiano)
===> Accuse scam/truffe
===> Mining (Italiano)
===> Alt-Currencies (Italiano)
=====> Annunci
===> Raduni/Meeting (Italiano)
===> Crittografia e decentralizzazione
===> Off-Topic (Italiano)
=> 日本語 (Japanese)
===> アルトコイン
=> Nederlands (Dutch)
===> Markt
===> Gokken/lotterijen
===> Mining (Nederlands)
===> Beurzen
===> Alt Coins (Nederlands)
===> Off-topic (Nederlands)
===> Meetings (Nederlands)
=> Nigeria (Naija)
===> Politics and society (Naija)
===> Off-topic (Naija)
=> 한국어 (Korean)
===> 대체코인 Alt Coins (한국어)
=> Pilipinas
===> Altcoins (Pilipinas)
=====> Altcoin Announcements (Pilipinas)
===> Pamilihan
===> Others (Pilipinas)
=> Polski
===> Tablica ogłoszeń
===> Alternatywne kryptowaluty
=====> Nowe kryptowaluty i tokeny
=====> Tablica ogłoszeń (altcoiny)
=> Português (Portuguese)
===> Primeiros Passos (Iniciantes)
===> Economia & Mercado
===> Mineração em Geral
===> Desenvolvimento & Discussões Técnicas
===> Criptomoedas Alternativas
===> Brasil
===> Portugal
=> Русский (Russian)
===> Новички
===> Бизнес
=====> Барахолка
=====> Обменники
===> Идеи
===> Кодеры
===> Майнеры
===> Политика
===> Трейдеры
===> Альтернативные криптовалюты
=====> Токены
=====> Бayнти и aиpдpoпы
===> Хайпы
===> Работа
===> Разное
===> Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin
=====> Новости
=====> Юристы
=> Română (Romanian)
===> Anunturi importante
===> Offtopic
===> Market
=====> Discutii Servicii
===> Minerit
===> Tutoriale
===> Bine ai venit!
===> Presa
===> Altcoins (Monede Alternative)
=====> Anunturi Monede Alternative
=> Skandinavisk
=> Türkçe (Turkish)
===> Bitcoin Haberleri
===> Pazar Alanı
===> Madencilik
===> Ekonomi
===> Servisler
=====> Fonlar
===> Proje Geliştirme
===> Alternatif Kripto-Paralar
=====> Madencilik (Alternatif Kripto-Paralar)
=====> Duyurular (Alternatif Kripto-Paralar)
===> Konu Dışı
===> Yeni Başlayanlar & Yardım
===> Buluşmalar
=> Other languages/locations
Loading...