MtGox an inside job? Lets use crowd wisdom to find out -I will support with 1BTC

[gooxxed]

TL;DR; Follow the steps in the list - place a bet - but I pay it for you (10mBTC)

Many argue we should end the Gox topic. I disagree. If we stop now it will catch up with us anyway. Remember - MtGox is still in possesion of around 200,000 BTC. Should they get liquidated similar to the silk road coins it WILL BECOME A BIG TOPIC again. And more importantly: The status of around 600,000 coins is unclear. Since the blockchain does not forget anything, sooner or later someone will do a blockchain analysis and identify them.

Invariably, questions will arise again as to how to handle these coins. Coin validation/ fungibility of coins will become a topic again.

Last but not least a lot of people have lost a decent amount through MtGox. Even if this money/ these Bitcoins are lost they want to know what was going on!

The first question I want to ask to get closer to the answer is: "Was MtGox an inside job" I have started this prediction https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mtgox-an-inside-job.

I would like to start with collecting the opinion of users here and would ask you to to give me a percentage between 0% and 100% how likely you think this statement from the prediction is. To get the best numbers I will give a small incentive for your best guess and put 10mBTC on your word - and you will receive the winnings + the 10mBTC if you are correct.

To get concrete:
You can vote by creating a prediction. Is is simple - click on:

* go to the prediction page https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mtgox-an-inside-job/
* click on "use the advanced form"
* choose the percentage you give to the event with the slider
* choose amount 10mBTC (not sure if it matters)
* choose first yes
* click on "Anonymous prediction"
* now choose a Bitcoin address where your winnings should be sent to (if you just your "vote" to count without taking the 10mBTC just use my address: 1axXYfetnxsx3Rii5xaJJHVvJzyRtpaRS)
* you now created a prediction ( like this https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1MNvUB47mq1E85Cu8dJJyqKXT8nmtsDtQk/)) and received a deposit address to place money on that prediction - save the link somewhere
* do the same with a "no" prediction (with same percentage)
* finally post your % together with the two links to the yes and the no prediction here

What I will do: I will look at the current "market price"/ (percentage) of the prediction. If yours is above (you think it is more likely then the market) I will fund your "yes" prediction with 10mBTC. Otherwise I fund the no prediction. Please note you will not get any advantage from choosing a different percentage from what you believe is true - in fact if you belive it is true in 20% of the cases but the market thinks it is only 10% betting on yes would be your better option since you would get 10 times (the corresponding odds to 10%) 10mBTC in 20% of  the cases. Thus your expected value is 10mBTC*10 * 20% = 10%. If you would bet on yes you would only get 10mBTC * 1,11 * 80% = 8.88mBTC.
Thus even if you think "no" is more likely it is better to predict on "yes" as long as you think it is more likely than the market thinks it is.

Your Bitcointalk account should have more then 30 posts and not from 2014 - this is because I want votes from people following the topic for a longer time.

I will fund up to 50 votes. (500mBTC) When the first 50 votes have already built up a market price I hope a little bit of attention comes to this campaign. Now it would be interesting to see what people are willing to put their own money on. So basically what I will do: 24h after the first 500mBTC I will place a 250mBTC order on [yes](https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/19jyauVSrCCtUMVYzKRQUSFM7FZpqaqCoM/) that will accept ANY odds - thus it would be possible to bet against it with placing just 1mBTC. However, the market will match it with the best availabe offer. It will show at what level there will be a "price support". I do the same for "[no](https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1P3HQQPzNKZ6pA8MbURD7i4iMKrWFNc4NW/)". Will be fun!

Finally - let me know what you think of this? Any comments how to spend more BTC in a more efficient way? And last: I would really like to see others jumping in and giving their 10mBTC to the next one by funding their prediction to get this maket more liquid and thus acurate.


P.S: why I am doing this: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2654lm/i_am_willing_to_spend_10btc_to_find_out_what_is/

[gooxxed]

So - to make it more easy: your resposnse could look like

42%
https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1CSP6E7oCSe8cQgrVbZuWU3zzhC9HYZ3V7/
https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1ETTkaJD1mpHQmm3aampEZQZTr2ebq4ihE/

And then I would fund one of this 2 bets with 10mBTC

[iluvpie60]

do we really have to report this as a scam? lol.... cmon man


newbie account huh...

[itsAj]

To answer the question that you claim will be asked regarding the fungibleility  of bitcoin: no it will not be brought into question. The stolen/lost (whichever it may be) coins have likely been spent many times by now so that it will likely have been several transactions since the person/people have last controlled the missing coins. It would be likely that the coins have been mixed and separated, mixed together again so many times that the majority of users likely will have at least some trace of the lost coins. The fact that it is likely that the coins were lost over potentially many years will exaggerate this effect.

[jonald_fyookball]

we already know it was an inside job.   

[deepestfear]

It was clearly an inside job or executed with some degree of insider collusion
Not sure we need to be predicting likelihoods here, when we pretty much have certainty

[Wealthy]

It's for sure an inside job,without assimilation of insiders this wouldn't had happened.I lost around 1 btc there,only can login and see the balance

[DavidHume]

It was clearly an inside job or executed with some degree of insider collusion
Not sure we need to be predicting likelihoods here, when we pretty much have certainty

In the court of law, you need to show evidence to back up your claim. Hearsay and gut feeling can not be used as evidence even if it is true.

[LiteCoinGuy]

we already know it was an inside job.  

i guess Mark stole all coin. case closed.

[jonald_fyookball]

It was clearly an inside job or executed with some degree of insider collusion
Not sure we need to be predicting likelihoods here, when we pretty much have certainty

In the court of law, you need to show evidence to back up your claim. Hearsay and gut feeling can not be used as evidence even if is true.

It cannot be proven, but that is the most logical conclusion.

If not an insider fraud, then it is clearly criminal negligence, as there is simply no reasonable explanation for hundreds of
thousands of BTC leaking out without being noticed.