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August 18, 2014, 05:58:04 PM |
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Since I started trading alts, it has always frustrated me that there was no decent index to gauge the market. As a trader, I could only look at the value of my portfolio. It is impossible to compare to the market as a whole.
So, for the last month, I've been compiling some indexes and working on various strategies to measure the market as a whole. There are a couple out there, but they include BTC, which is a double-whammy since most alts are priced on a per BTC basis. Also, since BTC is 95% of the total crypto market, these indexes track BTC more closely than the general alt market.
I started two weeks ago with my current set of calculations. Maybe I should stop, because the market has taken a big fat shit since that time We've seen an evaporation of about $2 billion in crypto market cap:
Index 1: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC is now 61.92 Index 2: cap-weighted, includes all cryptos except BTC and LTC is now 69.88
(These indexes are imperfect because coinmarketcap has added 5 or 6 cryptos in the last eleven days, which skews them a little high. Interesting that the HUGE dump by LTC has such an impact, which is why index 2 is not quite as ugly...no LTC)
Index 3: cap-weighted, includes a basket of 31 NON-LTC cryptos selected by cap/volume metrics is now 63.86 Index 4: cap-weighted, includes the basket of 31 PLUS LTC is now 58.31
(I think Index 3 is actually the closest to what I'm trying to accomplish, which is to judge the general movement of the alt market as a whole. I created Index 3 and intentionally left out LTC because it was so much larger than the rest of the alts and I wanted to gauge the movement of my portfolio against a representative sample. Again, note that LTC influenced lower.)
Index 5: price-weighted version of Index 3 is now 56.01 Index 6: price-weighted version of Index 4 is now 54.72
(Dow Jones is price-weighted. S&P, Russell, most others are cap weighted. I just set these up to see if there would be much difference. Again, LTC provides downward weight.)
Meta index is 60.78. This contains elements of all above.
Will now re-balance the basket. I can already see some that will be added based on cap/volume metrics and some will be going away. You can PM me if you want that list. I'm happy to post in thread if anybody gives a shit, as this isn't a market-mover like when the S&P 500 announces their additions/deletions.
TL:DR If your crypto portfolio is down by less than 37-40% in the last two weeks, you are probably beating the market. Good trading!
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